| 《2025电力市场与数智化储能调研报告》 | 电力交易、技术融合、虚拟电厂与商业创新 | | --- | --- | | 出品方: 2 行家说储能 | 鸣谢:以下参编单位的特别贡献(排名不分先后) | | UHES | HTHIUM | | 调研止式启动,欢迎参编 | 扫码了解 | 温馨提示： 投稿/合作/找圈，请联系hjs-Cindy，13609002797 当前，新型储能市场需求持续旺盛。 据行家说储能不完全统计，仅11月单月，储能企业公开披露的储能订单容量规模就超230GWh。需求的快速增长，正推动国内 外产能加速扩张。 在国内，新型储能企业布局重点主要在储能电芯、PCS产能的扩张以及钠离子电池等先进储能技术的规模化量产。 ▋ 上能电气： 15GWh储能变流器项目 近日，上能电气发布公告称，公司开启定增计划，计划向包括公司控股股东吴强在内的不超过35名特定投资者，发行不超过107,866,570股A股普通股，募 集资金大约16.5亿元。 募集资金将主要用于年产25GW组串式光伏逆变器产业化建设项目和年产15GW储能变流器产业化建设项目，剩余部分用于补充流动资金。 | | | | 单位:万元 | | ...

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - In September, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 9.7 GW, a month-on-month increase of 31.79% [2] - Tongrun Equipment announced the acquisition of Zhengtai Power, which specializes in photovoltaic inverters and energy storage converters [2] - JinkoSolar is recognized as the world's largest manufacturer of monocrystalline silicon wafers and modules [2] - JA Solar is a leading integrated photovoltaic company with a global market share of 10%, ranking among the top three in module shipments [2] - Shanghai Electric is a major comprehensive energy supplier in Shanghai, focusing on renewable energy development [2] - Tongwei Co. is a global leader in silicon materials and has been the top supplier of battery cells for several years [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - National Grid's subsidiary, Yingda Securities, reported a net profit increase of 53.73% year-on-year for the first three quarters [3] - Kangsheng Co. saw a remarkable net profit growth of 240.21% year-on-year, driven by its immersion liquid cooling products for data centers [3] - The real estate company, Shiroyama, reported a staggering net profit increase of 3168.80% year-on-year in its third-quarter report [3] - Huadong Cable's marine exploration cables contributed to a 44.13% year-on-year net profit increase in the third quarter [3] - Keli Ke's net profit grew by 52.51% year-on-year, attributed to its power control products for robot charging stations [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The company Keli Yuan completed small-scale trials of its solid-state battery dry electrode and is advancing to pilot testing [5] - The company Huaming Equipment is developing dual-robot plasma cutting equipment, integrating robotics and CNC technology [4] - The company Time Space Technology plans to acquire Jiahe Jinwei to enter the storage sector [6] Group 4: Market Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse [4] - The focus on brain-computer interfaces and embodied intelligence is highlighted as a new economic growth point [4] - The domestic market for solid-state batteries is evolving, with companies like Keli Yuan and Zhenhua Co. making significant advancements [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. (300827.SZ), is leveraging capital market strength to significantly expand production capacity and overcome capacity bottlenecks through a private placement of shares, aiming to raise up to 1.649 billion yuan for two major capacity expansion projects [1][5]. Group 1: Capital Raising and Expansion Plans - The company plans to raise no more than 1.649 billion yuan through a private placement to fund the construction of a 25GW string inverter production project and a 15GW energy storage converter project, as well as to supplement working capital [1][5]. - Upon full production capacity, the company will add 25GW of string inverters and 15GW of energy storage converters, with production capacity increases of 2.78 times for high-power string inverters, 10 times for distributed string inverters, and 2.73 times for energy storage converters [1][9]. - The company’s actual controller, Wu Qiang, will participate in the private placement with an investment of 50 million yuan, maintaining control over 22.69% of the company’s shares post-issuance [6][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.42%, and a net profit of 201 million yuan, up 24.78% [2][8]. - The company has shown continuous performance improvement for three and a half years since 2022, with a net profit of 194 million yuan in the same period, reflecting a growth of 23.31% [2][8]. Group 3: Market Context and Demand - The company is positioned as a major player in the global photovoltaic inverter and energy storage converter market, benefiting from the rapid growth of the photovoltaic and energy storage industries under the "dual carbon" policy [8]. - The company’s inverter sales are projected to reach 23.47GW and 25.11GW in 2024 and 2025, respectively, while energy storage converter sales are expected to be 3.91GW and 8.06GW [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shangneng Electric, has received approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for its application to issue shares to specific investors, pending final approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [1] Summary by Sections Issuance Details - The company plans to raise a total of up to 164.86 million yuan through this issuance, which will be used for projects including the production of 25GW string inverters and 15GW energy storage inverters, as well as to supplement working capital [1][3] - The total investment for the 25GW string inverter project is approximately 129.59 million yuan, with 88.86 million yuan allocated from the raised funds. The 15GW energy storage inverter project has a total investment of about 89.50 million yuan, with 61 million yuan from the raised funds [3] Investor Participation - The issuance will involve no more than 35 specific investors, including the company's controlling shareholder, Wu Qiang, who will subscribe for 50 million yuan worth of shares. Other investors have not yet been determined [4] - All investors will subscribe using cash, and the final issuance price will be set based on the average trading price of the company's shares over the 20 trading days prior to the pricing date [4] Shareholding Structure - Following the issuance, Wu Qiang's shareholding is expected to increase, but he will not transfer any shares for 18 months post-issuance. The other investors will also face a 6-month transfer restriction on their shares [5] - The issuance is not expected to change the company's control structure, with Wu Qiang and Wu Chao maintaining their status as the actual controllers of the company [6]

Group 1: Company Developments - Anzheng Fashion focuses on mid-to-high-end brand fashion, achieving a turnaround in net profit year-on-year in the first half of the year [2] - Zhengye Technology's subsidiary has mastered the "silver-free process" for heterojunction battery technology [2] - Meibang Clothing, a leading domestic leisure apparel brand, is set to enhance its production capacity for foldable screens significantly by 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Trends - The State Council emphasizes the acceleration of service consumption and new consumption growth points [2] - The demand for data centers and energy storage is expected to grow rapidly [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the development of the biopharmaceutical industry among central enterprises [4] Group 3: Market Movements - Companies like Tongrun Equipment and China Ruilin are experiencing stock price increases, with Tongrun Equipment's stock rising for two consecutive days [4] - The international gold price has reached a historical high, benefiting companies like Eurasia Group, which collaborates with well-known gold brands [4] - The stock price of Pop Mart has reached a new historical high, indicating strong market interest in IP economy [5]

Group 1: Battery and Semiconductor Industry - Tianpu Co. has completed small-scale testing of its epoxy-modified phenolic resin synthesis technology and is preparing for pilot testing [2] - Zhonghao Xinying's controlling shareholder Yang Gongyifan has become the company's controlling shareholder [2] - Saint Hui Integrated provides semiconductor cleanroom engineering services and has achieved mass production [2] - Taihe Technology has developed solid-state lithium battery key materials and is advancing its electronic-grade solvent methanol project to G4 level [2] Group 2: Film and Entertainment Industry - The total box office for the summer of 2025 reached 11.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.76% [3] - Jinyi Film is among the top five domestic film investment companies and ranks seventh in cinema screening and distribution [3] - Jilin Cable Network operates cinemas and is involved in film production with the Jilin publicity department [3] - Wen Tou Holdings is innovating its cinema business model and has achieved profitability in the first half of the year [3] Group 3: Robotics and Automation - Zhi Shu Technology announced its listing plan and Tesla's "Macro Plan 4" aims to integrate AI into the physical world [4] - Spring Xing Precision has developed technology for robots to replace manual loading and unloading [4] - Longfei Optical Fiber is a leading company in the optical fiber and cable industry, with advanced capabilities in hollow core technology [4] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - Renfu Pharmaceutical has multiple innovative drug projects in development, including a new drug for drug-resistant tuberculosis expected to submit for approval in 2025 [4] - Baihua Pharmaceutical is focusing on antiviral drugs and cough relief medications [4] Group 5: Renewable Energy - Tongrun Equipment has developed a 110kW photovoltaic grid-connected inverter for commercial rooftop applications and is acquiring Zhengtai Power [4] - Shangneng Electric is a leading provider of photovoltaic inverter and conversion solutions, ranking third in China [4] Group 6: Consumer Goods - The State Council is accelerating the development of service consumption and new consumption growth points [5] - Anzheng Fashion focuses on mid-to-high-end fashion brands and has turned a profit in the first half of the year [5] - Meibang Clothing plans to open 10,000 stores by 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shangneng Electric has responded to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's inquiry regarding its application for a specific stock issuance, addressing key issues such as project filing, changes in the issuance plan, expansion of distributed photovoltaic inverter production, and inventory impairment provisions along with sales expenses [1] Group 1: Project Filing and Expansion - The annual production capacity project for 25GW string photovoltaic inverters has faced delays, with the company indicating that the project filing will expire in August 2025 due to not starting construction [2] - The company has applied for an extension of the project start date to 2026, allowing for continued implementation despite the risk of filing expiration [2] Group 2: Changes in Issuance Plan - In July 2023, the company modified its issuance plan to include additional subscription targets, with the actual controller Wu Qiang intending to participate [3] - This change is classified as a significant alteration under relevant securities regulations, affecting the investment projects initiated after July 31, 2023 [3] Group 3: Production Capacity Expansion - The fundraising project aims to add 15GW of distributed photovoltaic inverter production capacity, representing a tenfold increase [4] - Despite a decline in some overseas market demands, the company believes the expansion is justified due to anticipated growth in the global distributed photovoltaic market, particularly in domestic and certain international markets [4] - The company possesses several advantages for absorbing the new capacity, including strong brand recognition, extensive customer resources, robust marketing networks, and effective cost control [4] Group 4: Inventory and Sales Expense Analysis - The company's inventory impairment provision ratio differs significantly from comparable companies, influenced by product structure and sales conditions [5] - Sales expenses for 2024 are projected to be 190 million, a 45.18% increase year-on-year, primarily due to heightened market development costs [5] - The sales expenses are aligned with revenue, and the overall sales expense ratio is lower than that of comparable companies, reflecting the company's efficient sales personnel management and operational model [5]

Core Viewpoint - The document provides a supplementary legal opinion regarding the application of Shangneng Electric Co., Ltd. for a specific stock issuance, addressing inquiries from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and clarifying the status of environmental and energy assessments related to a photovoltaic inverter project. Group 1: Project Status and Risks - The environmental impact assessment (EIA) and energy assessment (EA) for the project are set to expire in August 2025, and if the project does not commence within two years of the approval date, the project approval may automatically become invalid [2][3][4] - The project, which aims for an annual production capacity of 25GW of string photovoltaic inverters, has not yet started construction and has not applied for an extension, leading to potential risks of approval invalidation [3][4][11] - The company has updated the planned commencement date to 2026 and has obtained a new investment project filing certificate, thus mitigating the risk of expiration for the project [7][10][11] Group 2: Legal and Regulatory Compliance - The supplementary legal opinion is based on compliance with various laws and regulations, including the Company Law and Securities Law, ensuring that the issuance process adheres to industry standards and ethical norms [2][3] - The company has clarified that the project does not fall under the category of projects requiring approval management, as it is subject to filing management, which has no explicit validity period [6][7] - The company has taken necessary actions to comply with the regulations regarding projects that have not commenced within the stipulated timeframe, ensuring that the project can continue to be implemented [10][11] Group 3: Changes in Issuance Plan - The company has made adjustments to its issuance plan, including the addition of its controlling shareholder as a subscriber, but these changes do not constitute a significant alteration under relevant securities regulations [12][14][16] - The adjustments made to the issuance plan were approved in board meetings, and the overall fundraising amount and project details remain unchanged, indicating stability in the company's financial strategy [12][16][17] - The company has confirmed that no funds were invested in the project prior to the board's approval of the issuance plan, ensuring that all investments align with the approved financial strategy [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [12] Core Views - The company has a strong layout in wind-solar-storage grid-type products and is experiencing continuous breakthroughs in overseas markets, embracing AIDC to establish a second growth curve [3][12] - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 3.8 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to 6.6 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.4% [5][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 500 million in 2023 to 900 million in 2027, with a significant increase of 88.2% in 2023 [5][12] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections: 3.8 billion in 2023, 3.7 billion in 2024, 4.8 billion in 2025, 5.5 billion in 2026, and 6.6 billion in 2027 [5] - Net profit (attributable to the parent) is expected to be 500 million in 2023, 400 million in 2024, 600 million in 2025, 800 million in 2026, and 900 million in 2027 [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast: 1.10 in 2023, 0.97 in 2024, 1.38 in 2025, 1.66 in 2026, and 1.95 in 2027 [5] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 14.1% in 2027 [5] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 13.946 billion [6] - The stock price has ranged from 11.16 to 35.14 over the past 52 weeks [6] - The current stock price is 30.68, with a target price set at 37.81 [12] Business Growth - The engineering transmission business is expected to generate 560 million in revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 16.7% and a gross margin of 44.5% [12] - Overseas revenue is projected to reach 259 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 122.7% with a gross margin of 54.2% [12] - The company has established over 30 service bases in various countries, including the Netherlands, Brazil, and India, to support its overseas expansion [12] Product Development - The company has invested six years in developing wind-solar-storage grid-type products, which are expected to significantly enhance the safety and stability of power systems [12] - The company has launched various products, including a 1.5-20MW doubly-fed converter for wind power and a 320-350kW string inverter for photovoltaic applications, both designed to support high overload capabilities [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to raise up to 1.649 billion yuan through a private placement to fund two major industrial projects and supplement working capital [1] Group 1: Fundraising and Shareholding Structure - The company intends to issue shares to no more than 35 specific investors, including controlling shareholder Wu Qiang, who will subscribe for 50 million yuan worth of shares [1] - After the issuance, Wu Qiang and Wu Chao will control a combined 22.69% of the company's shares, maintaining Wu Qiang as the controlling shareholder [1] - The company has a history of frequent fundraising activities, including an IPO in March 2020 that raised nearly 400 million yuan and a convertible bond issuance in 2021 that raised 420 million yuan [2] Group 2: Concerns and Market Reactions - The participation of the controlling shareholder in the private placement may raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest and profit transfer, as similar cases in the market have led to significant gains for controlling shareholders at the expense of other investors [1] - Company executives, including Li Jianfei, sold 1.7 million shares from January to April this year, cashing out over 51 million yuan [2] - The progress of previously planned projects, such as the 5GW energy storage converter project, has been slow, with only 10% completion reported as of mid-2023 [2]