美联储官员在本月会议上同意实施2025年第三次也是最后一次降息，但对于后续政策走向的分歧日益加 剧。这一局面叠加复杂的经济形势，使得即将公布的会议纪要成为市场关注焦点。 政策制定者还调整了会后声明，以释放"进一步宽松门槛提高"的信号。声明指出："在考虑对联邦基金 利率目标区间进行额外调整的幅度和时机时，委员会将仔细评估最新数据、不断演变的经济前景以及风 险平衡状况。"与FOMC 10月会议后的声明相比，此次新增了"幅度和时机"的表述。 分析师将密切关注纪要中关于这一门槛具体高度的细节披露。 根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具（FedWatch Tool）的数据，投资者认为美联储明年1月维持利率不 变的概率为84%，3月再次暂停降息的概率接近50%。 尽管如此，交易员仍预计美联储2026年还将有两次降息，这意味着美元还有进一步下跌的空间。 此次12月9日至10日会议的纪要将于北京时间周三凌晨3点发布，内容涵盖美联储决定降息25个基点的相 关讨论——此次降息后，联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.50%至3.75%。这份纪要大概率将显示，委员会 在权衡通胀、就业市场以及特朗普关税政策释放的矛盾信号时，做出了艰难的决策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations experienced a dramatic reversal within a single day, influenced by key economic data and internal policy disagreements among Fed officials [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - On November 21, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropped to 35.4%, but after comments from New York Fed President John Williams, it surged to approximately 70% [1][3]. - The fluctuations in rate cut expectations have led to volatility in financial markets, with significant impacts on stock indices and the strength of the US dollar [3]. Group 2: Employment Data Insights - The US Labor Department reported that September's non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000, marking the strongest monthly gain since April [2]. - Despite the strong job growth, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years, and previous months' job growth figures were revised downwards, indicating potential concerns for the Fed [2]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Fed officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, expressed caution regarding a potential rate cut in December, citing stagnation in inflation as a key concern [3]. - The internal divisions within the Fed are highlighted by the contrasting views on employment data and inflation, complicating the decision-making process [2][4]. Group 4: Economic Data Release Delays - Due to a prior government shutdown, the release of the October non-farm payroll report has been delayed, which may hinder the Fed's ability to make informed decisions during the December meeting [4]. - The upcoming release of previously delayed economic data could lead to further adjustments in market expectations [5].

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell below 100, with a decline of 0.3% to 99.771 after failing to break through 100.360, indicating a cautious risk sentiment due to rising layoff announcements and declining US Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield dropped over 6 basis points to 4.089%, while the 2-year and 30-year yields fell to 3.566% and 4.686%, respectively, reflecting a response to the deteriorating labor market outlook [1] - The implied probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December increased from 62% to 69%, reversing some hawkish repricing that occurred after the Fed's November statement [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis of the US dollar index indicates a confirmed reversal below the 200-day moving average, which has significantly changed market sentiment towards the dollar [2] - If the current selling pressure continues, the dollar index may test the support level at 99.463, which is the last line of defense before the 50-day moving average at 99.359 [2] - Downside risks remain high due to weak labor data, declining yields, and strong performance in currency crosses, unless new data or comments from the Federal Reserve alter expectations [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's inflation target remains at 2%, but recent data is not expected to alter the policymakers' path, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by year-end [5][6] Economic Data Summary - The U.S. August PCE price index increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching expectations, and rose by 0.3% month-on-month, also in line with market predictions [2] - The core PCE price index for August remained stable at 2.9% year-on-year and increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with July's figures [2] - Personal income grew by 0.4% and personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.6% in August, both exceeding expectations by 0.1 percentage points [2] Consumer Behavior Insights - Despite the impact of tariffs, consumer spending has shown resilience, with a personal savings rate rising to 4.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [5] - Economic uncertainty caused by tariffs initially led to reduced consumer spending, but a rebound was observed during the summer months [5] Market Expectations - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut on October 29 are strong, with a probability of 87.7%, while the likelihood of a subsequent cut in December is around 65% [6][7]