Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has opened the door for potential interest rate cuts as early as next month, indicating a shift in economic outlook due to a possible significant slowdown in the labor market and concerns over inflation driven by tariffs [1][2][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell noted that the balance of risks is changing, with the labor market showing signs of weakness, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates [1][3]. - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady this year, citing a robust labor market and uncertainty regarding inflation risks from tariffs [1][2]. Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming clearer and is expected to accumulate in the coming months, raising questions about whether these price increases will lead to persistent inflation risks [2][4]. - He expressed greater confidence that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but warned that rising costs could lead to a wage-price spiral if workers successfully negotiate higher wages [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, traders increased bets on a rate cut in September, with the probability now exceeding 90%, up from about 75% before his remarks [5]. - U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones reaching a new historical high, while the dollar index fell below 98 [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts believe Powell's dovish stance indicates readiness for a rate cut in September, driven by labor market weaknesses rather than tariff-induced price increases [7][8]. - Powell's commitment to data-driven policy decisions reflects a response to political pressures, emphasizing that monetary policy will not follow a predetermined path [8].

Group 1 - Market sentiment has shown signs of optimism, with spot gold experiencing a nearly 3% drop on Monday, although bullish sentiment still prevails [1] - The three major U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq closing at its highest level since late February [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 71% compared to 29% bearish [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 75% against 25% bearish [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a bearish sentiment of 71% compared to 29% bullish [3] - The Dow Jones Index has a bullish sentiment of 70% against 30% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 55% compared to 45% bearish [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a bearish sentiment of 80% against 20% bullish [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 54% compared to 46% bearish [3] - The Euro/GBP pair has a strong bullish sentiment of 85% against 15% bearish [3] - The Euro/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 87% compared to 13% bearish [3] - The Euro/AUD pair shows a bearish sentiment of 82% against 18% bullish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 78% compared to 22% bullish [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 75% against 25% bullish [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 65% compared to 35% bullish [3] - The USD/CAD pair reflects a bearish sentiment of 61% against 39% bullish [3] - The USD/CHF pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 84% compared to 16% bearish [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 78% against 22% bullish [4] - The AUD/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 61% compared to 39% bullish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair reflects a nearly balanced sentiment with 48% bullish and 52% bearish [4] - The NZD/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 63% against 37% bullish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 67% compared to 33% bearish [4] - The USD/CNH pair has a strong bullish sentiment of 82% against 18% bearish [4]