市场不是不怕，而是把恐惧变成定价。投资者理解了这一点， 才能更好把握2026年的"资本风口"。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 即将过去的2025年，像一部"反经典理论"合订本。 这一年，美元大跌、欧元走强，日元加息后"不升反贬"；4月关税冲击一度把美股砸出深坑，恐慌 指数（VIX）冲上60，随后在流动性缓冲与仓位再平衡中迅速修复，标普500年内涨幅超过17%； 贵金属在"软着陆叙事"未彻底瓦解时逼近历史高位，国际黄金价格年内上涨逾70%，冲上4500美 元/盎司，白银的涨幅更猛；油价却偏弱，像是在给需求与供给预期泼冷水。 由此，一种更"金融化"的秩序显形：黑天鹅仍会飞来，但落地时往往被切割成可交易的"白天鹅碎 片"——提前对冲、结构性吸收，甚至被"波动率卖方"纳入风险预算与保证金管理。 市场不是不怕，而是把恐惧变成定价。投资者理解了这一点，才能更好把握2026年的"资本风 口"。 联博基金市场策略负责人李长风认为，尽管2025年不确定性因素密集，全球资本市场仍在"攀登 忧虑之墙"的过程中展现韧性。 复盘2025年，一个显著特征是"预测与现实的系统性错位"。 财经数据服务平台金十数据显示，截至2025年12月 ...

Domestic Focus - President Xi Jinping and President Trump had a phone call on November 24, highlighting the overall stability and improvement of China-U.S. relations since the Busan meeting, emphasizing mutual benefits and shared prosperity [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, marking three consecutive months of growth since August [1] - On November 26, six departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission, issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming for industrial upgrades driven by consumption [1] International Focus - The Bank of Korea decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% on November 27, marking the fourth time it has been held at this level since a reduction in May [2] - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, the lowest since April 2025, with previous values revised from 220,000 to 222,000 [2] - On November 24, the White House announced President Trump's signing of an executive order to launch the "Genesis Project," aimed at transforming scientific research through artificial intelligence [2] Market Overview - The A-share market experienced upward fluctuations due to recent domestic consumption policies and rising expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, with technology sectors like AI, communications, and electronics leading the gains [4] - In the bond market, despite a loosening of funds, bond yields rose, indicating a weak performance overall, with market participants adopting a cautious stance ahead of important meetings [5] - Credit bonds showed significant adjustments and weaker performance, with yields and spreads widening, particularly for lower-rated bonds [6] Future Outlook - The upcoming important domestic meetings in December are expected to maintain a positive macro policy tone, potentially boosting A-share performance if the Federal Reserve proceeds with rate cuts [8] - In the bond market, current yield levels are expected to have strong support, with a potential for a rebound, while strategies should focus on high-yield short-duration credit bonds [9] - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, but supportive policies are anticipated to gradually stabilize the market [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. is approaching a deadline for tariffs, prompting multiple countries to engage in last-minute negotiations [1] - Nationwide anti-government protests have erupted in Ukraine, marking the first such occurrence since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - Current market signals indicate continued selling pressure on WTI crude oil, while gold remains favored by bullish sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 32% and bearish sentiment of 68% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 37% and bearish sentiment of 63% [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a bullish sentiment of 55% and bearish sentiment of 45% [3] - The Dow Jones Index indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 81% and a bearish sentiment of 19% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 82% and bearish sentiment of 18% [3] - The DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 84% and bearish sentiment of 16% [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 14% and bearish sentiment of 86% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bullish sentiment of 14% and bearish sentiment of 86% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 7% and bearish sentiment of 93% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 18% and bearish sentiment of 82% [3] - The GBP/USD pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 79% and bearish sentiment of 21% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 25% and bearish sentiment of 75% [3] - The USD/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 37% and bearish sentiment of 63% [3] - The USD/CAD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 22% and bearish sentiment of 78% [3] - The USD/CHF pair indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 93% and bearish sentiment of 7% [3]

Group 1 - Powell faces criminal charges, while the White House states that Trump has no plans to dismiss Powell [1] - New round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled for tomorrow, indicating ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - Israel has launched large-scale airstrikes against Houthi forces, reflecting regional conflicts [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment shows a stalemate in gold trading, with signals indicating potential sell-off in WTI crude oil [1] - The sentiment in various indices shows a mixed outlook, with the S&P 500 at 71% bullish and 29% bearish, while the Nasdaq is evenly split at 50% [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the Euro against the Dollar shows a significant bearish sentiment at 77% [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June is set to be released, with market focus on the impact and duration of tariffs, indicating that price pressures are expected to become more evident, which could delay the Federal Reserve's easing measures [1] - Current market sentiment shows a dominance of bullish positions in gold, while silver is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and WTI crude oil is signaling a sell-off [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 32% and bearish sentiment of 68% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 40% and bearish sentiment of 60% [3] - The Nasdaq Index indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 83% against a bearish sentiment of 17% [3] - The Dow Jones Index has a bullish sentiment of 38% and bearish sentiment of 62% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 54% and bearish sentiment of 46% [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 76% and bearish sentiment of 24% [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 57% and bearish sentiment of 43% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a significant bearish sentiment of 87% against a bullish sentiment of 13% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 92% and bullish sentiment of 8% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 83% against a bearish sentiment of 17% [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 28% and bearish sentiment of 72% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 68% and bearish sentiment of 32% [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 28% and bearish sentiment of 72% [3] - The USD/CAD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 34% and bearish sentiment of 66% [3] - The USD/CHF pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 88% against a bearish sentiment of 12% [3]

Group 1 - The tariff negotiations have reached a critical stage, with investors awaiting clarity on the tariff situation [1] - Market sentiment regarding gold remains cautious, with both bullish and bearish positions maintaining a wait-and-see approach [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 73% and bearish sentiment of 27% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 59% and bearish sentiment of 41% [3] - The Nasdaq Index indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 83% and a bearish sentiment of 17% [3] - The Dow Jones Index reflects a bearish sentiment of 76% against a bullish sentiment of 24% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows an even split with 50% bullish and 50% bearish sentiment [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 52% and bearish sentiment of 48% [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 82% and a bullish sentiment of 18% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bearish sentiment of 81% and a bullish sentiment of 19% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a significant bearish sentiment of 92% against a bullish sentiment of 8% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 92% and a bearish sentiment of 8% [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 85% and a bullish sentiment of 15% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 69% and a bullish sentiment of 31% [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 58% and a bullish sentiment of 42% [3] - The USD/CAD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 70% and a bearish sentiment of 30% [3] - The USD/CHF pair shows a significant bearish sentiment of 93% against a bullish sentiment of 7% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% and a bearish sentiment of 40% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 62% and a bearish sentiment of 38% [4] - The CAD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 70% and a bullish sentiment of 30% [4] - The NZD/USD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 56% and a bearish sentiment of 44% [4] - The NZD/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 60% and a bullish sentiment of 40% [4] - The USD/CNH pair has a bullish sentiment of 62% and a bearish sentiment of 38% [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. is expected to finalize a trade agreement before the July 9 deadline, which is positively impacting non-U.S. currencies [1] - Strong buying signals for the Euro are noted, while concerns over Federal Reserve rate cuts and budget deficits are weighing on the U.S. dollar [1] - The overall sentiment in the market is shifting towards a weaker dollar as these factors unfold [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment with 31% long positions and 69% short positions [3] - The S&P 500 Index has 74% long positions and 26% short positions, indicating a predominantly bullish outlook [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a strong bullish sentiment with 77% long positions [3] - The Dow Jones Index has 70% long positions, suggesting a positive market sentiment [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a more balanced sentiment with 54% long and 46% short positions [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has 45% long positions and 55% short positions, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro to U.S. dollar pair has a significant long position of 87% [3] - The Euro to British pound pair shows a bearish sentiment with 35% long and 65% short positions [3] - The Euro to Japanese yen pair has a strong bullish sentiment with 92% long positions [3] - The Euro to Australian dollar pair also reflects a bullish sentiment with 92% long positions [3] - The British pound to U.S. dollar pair shows a bearish sentiment with 15% long and 85% short positions [3] - The British pound to Japanese yen pair has 27% long and 73% short positions, indicating a bearish outlook [3] - The U.S. dollar to Japanese yen pair is nearly balanced with 51% long and 49% short positions [3] - The U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar pair shows a bearish sentiment with 28% long and 72% short positions [3] - The U.S. dollar to Swiss franc pair has a strong bearish sentiment with only 9% long positions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that geopolitical tensions are easing, leading to a decline in the proportion of bullish positions in gold [1] - The upcoming release of the US PCE data is anticipated to impact market sentiment, particularly if it shows a decrease in inflation, which could potentially boost gold prices [1] Group 2 - The data shows a significant disparity in bullish and bearish positions across various indices, with the S&P 500 having 72% bullish and 28% bearish positions, while the Nasdaq has 16% bullish and 84% bearish positions [3] - The Hang Seng Index shows a 36% bullish and 64% bearish split, indicating a more cautious sentiment in the Hong Kong market [3] - The DAX 40 index has 39% bullish and 61% bearish positions, reflecting a similar cautious outlook in the German market [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair shows a strong bearish sentiment with 17% bullish and 83% bearish positions, while the Euro/Yen pair has a significant 92% bearish sentiment [4] - The GBP/USD pair has a notable 84% bullish sentiment, contrasting with the bearish outlook in other currency pairs [4] - The Australian Dollar to Japanese Yen pair shows a 39% bullish and 61% bearish split, indicating a mixed sentiment [4]

Group 1 - The situation between Israel and Palestine is cooling down, while the long positions in crude oil remain high [1] - Market rumors suggest that Trump may establish a "shadow Federal Reserve Chairman," which is expected to support gold due to anticipated interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The sentiment in various indices shows a significant disparity between long and short positions, with the Nasdaq index having 77% long positions and 23% short positions [3] - The S&P 500 index shows 27% long positions compared to 73% short positions, indicating a bearish sentiment [3] - The Dow Jones index has 69% long positions, suggesting a more favorable outlook compared to the S&P 500 [3] - The Hang Seng index shows a balanced sentiment with 55% long and 45% short positions [3] - The DAX 40 index has 53% long positions, indicating a slight bullish sentiment [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has 16% long positions and 84% short positions, reflecting a strong bearish sentiment [4] - The GBP/USD pair shows a contrasting sentiment with 84% long positions and 16% short positions [4] - The USD/JPY pair has 59% long positions, indicating a more balanced outlook [4]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that there is no urgency to cut interest rates, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The situation in the Middle East has temporarily stabilized but remains unstable, which could impact market sentiment and oil prices [1] - The proportion of long positions in U.S. crude oil has increased, suggesting bullish sentiment among investors [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have rebounded after hitting a low, with a slight increase in the proportion of long positions in gold [1] - Market sentiment remains uncertain, and further developments in geopolitical situations and economic indicators will be closely monitored [1] Group 3 - The data on various indices shows a significant disparity between long and short positions, with the S&P 500 having 34% long and 66% short positions, while the Dow Jones has a near-even split at 49% long and 51% short [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the Euro/USD pair shows a strong bearish sentiment with 15% long and 85% short positions, while the GBP/USD pair has a contrasting bullish sentiment with 84% long and 16% short positions [3]