近年来奶牛养殖行业的产能情况和价格周期如何变化？ 中国奶业正经历结构性调整，后备牛不足导致潜在供应风险，预计 2026 年仍需淘汰约 20 万头牛，行业洗牌加速。 规模化牧场全成本虽仍亏损，但亏损面收窄，集团化企业自控奶源比例 提升，社会化牧场面临成本和技术挑战，加速退出市场。 宁夏乳液深加工企业快速扩张，虽面临盲目扩张风险，但未来或将吸引 周边省份低成本牛奶，以满足产能需求。 消费分级推动乳制品市场结构性变化，高性价比产品受欢迎，中国乳制 品出口竞争力增强，造奶成本已具国际竞争力。 深加工需求倒逼牧场关注乳成分，蒙牛、伊利等大型乳企推动乳蛋白含 量提升，满足特医食品及保健品市场需求。 中国上游牧业规模化程度领先，通过降本增效提高单产，宁夏部分地区 造奶成本已降至 1.5 元/公斤以下，具备国际竞争优势。 中国乳企积极出海，受益于政策支持和工业优势，正从生产商向服务商 转型，与国际巨头竞争，东南亚和中东市场潜力巨大。 Q&A 近年来，奶牛养殖行业的产能呈现出显著下降趋势。2025 年，奶牛数量减少 了 20-30 万头，2026 年预计将继续减少约 20 万头，总体上两年内减少了五 六十万头。这种去化主要集中 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the launch of a fresh whey drink by HeRun, which has garnered significant industry attention and sparked discussions about the potential of whey-based products [1][2]. - Whey is defined as a byproduct of cheese production, previously considered waste but now recognized for its nutritional value, including high-quality protein and lactose [4][5]. - The processing of whey has evolved, allowing it to be transformed into various forms such as whey powder, demineralized whey powder, and whey protein powder, catering to different food industry needs [5][7]. Group 2 - The global whey market was valued at $9.9 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $17.82 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.76% [11]. - In China, the whey protein market is expected to grow from $34.6 million in 2021 to $51.8 million by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 11.238%, surpassing the global average [11]. - The primary applications of whey include functional foods, with yogurt, adult milk powder, and milk beverages being the most common products utilizing whey as a key ingredient [11][12]. Group 3 - The article discusses various innovative applications of whey in beverages, snacks, and baking, emphasizing its role as a high-quality protein source that enhances nutritional value and product characteristics [15][18]. - Whey protein is increasingly used in sports nutrition products, including protein powders and energy bars, to meet the demands of different consumer groups [20]. - The competitive landscape of the whey powder market is characterized by leading companies leveraging product quality, brand recognition, pricing strategies, and distribution channels [21]. Group 4 - Major players in the whey market include Yili Group, Mengniu, and FrieslandCampina, which dominate the high-end market in China, collectively holding over 40% market share [21][22]. - Companies like Actus Nutrition and Agropur are recognized as leading manufacturers of whey protein ingredients, supplying a wide range of products for various applications, including infant formula and sports nutrition [22]. - The article also highlights the technological advancements in whey processing, such as membrane filtration and enzymatic hydrolysis, which are helping domestic companies reduce reliance on imports and improve product quality [21][22].

Core Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a prolonged adjustment phase, with supply and demand still in the process of balancing, leading to a focus on cost reduction and efficiency among dairy companies [1][3] - Despite some signs of revenue decline slowing down, the industry has not yet fully recovered, with many companies still facing significant pressure [2][3] - The need to stimulate consumer demand for dairy products is critical, with innovation seen as a potential solution [1][4] Industry Performance - In 2024, the dairy industry faced intensified cyclical contradictions, with listed dairy companies reporting generally pressured performance [2] - Some companies, like Yiming Foods, reported a revenue increase of 1.8% in Q1 2025, down from 4.1% for the entire year of 2024, while Tianrun Dairy saw a decline of 2.5% in Q1 2025 compared to a 3.3% increase in 2024 [2] - The overall revenue decline for companies like Yantang Dairy and Western Pastoral continues to widen, with declines of 11.8% and 20.9% respectively [2] Market Dynamics - Promotional activities in the dairy sector have intensified, with significant discounts reported in retail, such as "buy one get one free" offers on fresh milk [2] - Sales volume for low-temperature pure milk showed slight growth in Q4 2024, but sales revenue still experienced a year-on-year decline, indicating a challenging market environment [2] Supply Chain Adjustments - The dairy industry has been undergoing a three-year cyclical adjustment, with milk production showing a decline for the first time since 2018, with a total production of 40.79 million tons in 2024, down 2.8% [3] - The average sales price of raw milk in 2024 was 3.32 yuan/kg, a significant drop of 13.42% year-on-year, attributed to rapid capacity expansion and weak consumer demand [3] Innovation and Consumer Demand - The industry is urged to focus on restoring the balance of raw milk supply and demand, with calls for innovative approaches to stimulate consumption [4] - There is a growing emphasis on developing functional and age-appropriate products, with high-end product growth beginning to show positive trends [4][5] - Current per capita dairy consumption in China is 42.4 kg, significantly below the Asian and global averages, indicating substantial growth potential [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy is crucial for boosting consumption, expanding domestic demand, and strengthening the domestic circulation, showing significant multiplier effects since its full implementation in 2024 [1][22]. Group 1: Impact on Consumer Behavior - The "Two New" policy has effectively enhanced consumer vitality, with reports of a 50% increase in foot traffic and a 60% rise in sales at a JD Super Experience Store in Chongqing compared to the previous year [3]. - High-tech and energy-efficient products are increasingly favored, with AI smart products seeing a threefold increase in sales in Henan province due to government subsidies [5][13]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has made it easier for consumers to upgrade their appliances, with over 55 million units of home appliances and 41 million digital products sold under this initiative [13]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Investment - In the first four months, investment in equipment and tools rose by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to overall investment growth, with related sectors like computer manufacturing and consumer goods seeing significant increases [15]. - The upgrade of production lines in companies like Yili and Zhejiang Chaowei has improved production efficiency and reduced labor costs, enhancing the overall competitiveness of the industry [17][20]. - The "Two New" policy is seen as a driver for economic transformation, creating a closed loop of investment, production, and consumption, which is essential for long-term competitiveness [22].