Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce announced preliminary findings of a countervailing investigation against imported dairy products from the EU, confirming that these products are subsidized and have caused substantial harm to the domestic dairy industry in China. A temporary countervailing duty will be implemented starting December 23, 2025 [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Ministry of Commerce's announcement (Document No. 83 of 2025) revealed that imported dairy products from the EU are subsidized, leading to significant harm to the domestic dairy industry. The State Council Tariff Commission will impose temporary countervailing duties starting December 23, 2025 [4]. Event Commentary - The countervailing investigation was initiated following a request from the China Dairy Industry Association and the China Dairy Products Industry Association in July 2024. The investigation confirmed that the subsidization of EU dairy products has resulted in increased inventory and a shift from profit to loss for domestic producers. The subsidy rates for sampled companies ranged from 21.9% to 42.7% [4]. Market Opportunities - The reliance on EU imports for various dairy products presents opportunities for domestic alternatives. In 2024, the B-end market for cheese, cream, and butter is projected to reach approximately 27.4 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13.6% over the past decade. Key recommended companies include Miaokelando, Yili, Mengniu, New Dairy, and Lihai Foods [4]. Raw Milk Price Outlook - There is an expectation for a turning point in raw milk prices, as domestic fresh milk prices have decreased significantly while international prices for bulk powder have shown an upward trend. The supply-demand balance for raw milk is anticipated to stabilize by 2026, with recommendations for companies like Youran Dairy and Modern Dairy [4].

Group 1 - The article highlights the launch of a fresh whey drink by HeRun, which has garnered significant industry attention and sparked discussions about the potential of whey-based products [1][2]. - Whey is defined as a byproduct of cheese production, previously considered waste but now recognized for its nutritional value, including high-quality protein and lactose [4][5]. - The processing of whey has evolved, allowing it to be transformed into various forms such as whey powder, demineralized whey powder, and whey protein powder, catering to different food industry needs [5][7]. Group 2 - The global whey market was valued at $9.9 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $17.82 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.76% [11]. - In China, the whey protein market is expected to grow from $34.6 million in 2021 to $51.8 million by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 11.238%, surpassing the global average [11]. - The primary applications of whey include functional foods, with yogurt, adult milk powder, and milk beverages being the most common products utilizing whey as a key ingredient [11][12]. Group 3 - The article discusses various innovative applications of whey in beverages, snacks, and baking, emphasizing its role as a high-quality protein source that enhances nutritional value and product characteristics [15][18]. - Whey protein is increasingly used in sports nutrition products, including protein powders and energy bars, to meet the demands of different consumer groups [20]. - The competitive landscape of the whey powder market is characterized by leading companies leveraging product quality, brand recognition, pricing strategies, and distribution channels [21]. Group 4 - Major players in the whey market include Yili Group, Mengniu, and FrieslandCampina, which dominate the high-end market in China, collectively holding over 40% market share [21][22]. - Companies like Actus Nutrition and Agropur are recognized as leading manufacturers of whey protein ingredients, supplying a wide range of products for various applications, including infant formula and sports nutrition [22]. - The article also highlights the technological advancements in whey processing, such as membrane filtration and enzymatic hydrolysis, which are helping domestic companies reduce reliance on imports and improve product quality [21][22].

2025.04. 23 本文字数：3009，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 栾立 中美关税争端的爆发让美国农产业很受伤。 第一财经记者了解到，作为美国重要的农产品出口市场之一，特别是在大豆、乳清等农产品上中国一 直是美国的头号客户。2024年中国进口的大豆占到美国大豆出口约50%份额，乳清占出口总量的 40%。而随着中美关税争端的爆发，高企的关税成本让原本价格更有优势的美国农产品正在逐步失去 中国市场。 饲料乳清市场份额将被抢食 "短期内美国乳清已经在涨价，如果长期维持高关税，可能后续美国乳清生意就没法做了。"在国内经 营乳原料进口贸易的北京润发商贸销售人员告诉第一财经记者。 乳清是脱胎乳经提取酪蛋白以制造干酪或干酪素后留下的溶液，一般而言，中低蛋白乳清多用于饲料 等领域，高蛋白乳清和脱盐乳清等多用于营养品和婴幼儿配方奶粉。由于国内消费者没有吃奶酪的习 惯，因此原制奶酪生产规模较小，国内使用的乳清粉主要依赖于进口，美国也是主要的来源国之一。 海关数据显示，2025年1-2月中国共进口乳清类11.7万吨，同比增加35.4%；进口额1.3亿美元，同比 增加34.5%，其中来自美国的乳清占比达41.9%。2 ...