Core Insights - The Chinese潮玩 market is rapidly expanding due to factors such as rising disposable income, the emergence of emotional consumption, the rise of domestic潮流 culture, and quality IPs [1][4] - The competitive landscape of the潮玩 market in China is relatively fragmented, with significant room for improvement compared to Japan [1][5] 潮玩 Industry Overview -潮玩 is defined as toys that integrate elements of潮流 culture, art, design, and various other concepts, characterized by high visual recognition, limited releases, and cross-industry collaborations [1] - The潮玩 industry includes various forms such as blind boxes, figurines, plush toys, gashapon, cards, dolls, art toys, assembly toys, and building sets [1] 潮玩 Industry Chain - The upstream segment consists of IP suppliers and operators, where high-quality IP suppliers hold strong bargaining power based on the scarcity and market popularity of their IPs [2] - The midstream includes潮玩 product manufacturers, who generally have weaker bargaining power; manufacturers with large-scale production capabilities are more likely to succeed [2] - The downstream segment involves retailers and consumers, where retailers' bargaining power depends on the quantity and quality of their IP reserves [2] Comparison with Japanese Toy Industry - The Japanese toy industry has matured and offers valuable lessons for China; despite challenges like declining birth rates, the industry has thrived due to the rise of gaming and anime [3] - In China, rising disposable income and a shift towards emotional consumption are driving demand for潮玩 and related products, despite demographic challenges [3] Market Growth and Projections - The Chinese潮玩 market is projected to grow from 22.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 76.3 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 35.11% [4] Market Concentration and Competition - The Chinese潮玩 market is currently fragmented, with the top five companies holding a combined market share of only 23.7% [5] - New domestic companies are rapidly expanding, with significant growth rates compared to international giants [5] - The quality and quantity of domestic IPs are increasing, with notable examples including《原神》,《黑神话：悟空》, and characters from泡泡玛特 [5]

Core Insights - The report focuses on the current status and strategies of Chinese潮玩 (trendy toys) brands going global, analyzing the global market situation and competitive landscape [1][6] - The潮玩 market is characterized by limited editions, artistic designs, and cultural symbolism, appealing to consumers' self-expression, curiosity, social needs, and the pursuit of artistic creativity and collectible value [1][10] Market Overview - The global潮玩 market is projected to grow from $8.7 billion in 2015 to $41.8 billion in 2024, indicating over 100% growth from 2020 to 2024 [1][18] - The Chinese潮玩 market is expected to reach approximately 764 billion yuan in 2024, with projections to exceed 1.1 trillion yuan by 2026 [1][20] Market Dynamics - The潮玩 market is driven by the rise of the Z generation, who value individual expression, social recognition, and emotional connections [1][23] - The IP economy is a significant driver, with the Chinese IP licensing market projected to reach 156.1 billion yuan by 2024, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% [1][26] Consumer Insights -潮玩 products fulfill emotional consumption needs, with 90% of Chinese consumers willing to pay a premium for emotional satisfaction [1][24] - The trend of "healing economy" is driving demand for adult emotional consumption, with the global healing economy market valued at $5.61 billion in 2022 and expected to grow to $8.47 billion by 2027 [1][15] Product Categories - Popular潮玩 categories include blind boxes, artistic toys, and IP-derived models, with brands like泡泡玛特 leading in the domestic market [1][11][36] - The blind box market is projected to reach $13.5 billion globally by 2031, with a CAGR of 5.5% from 2024 to 2031 [1][39] Competitive Landscape - Major global潮玩 companies include Disney, LEGO, and Bandai, with significant revenues and diverse distribution channels [1][33] -泡泡玛特 is a leading Chinese brand, with expected revenue of nearly 8 billion yuan in 2024 and presence in 23 overseas markets [1][1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector, specifically focusing on the潮玩 (trendy toy) industry [1]. Core Insights - The潮玩 market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size projected to increase from 22.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 76.3 billion yuan by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.11% [3][19]. - Dongguan is recognized as the "Capital of Trendy Toys" in China, housing over 4,000 toy manufacturers and nearly 1,500 supporting enterprises, accounting for approximately 85% of the domestic潮玩 production and 25% of global anime derivatives [3][28]. - The潮玩 industry in Dongguan has evolved through four stages: OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer), ODM (Original Design Manufacturer), OBM (Original Brand Manufacturer), and IP (Intellectual Property) integration, leading to a rise in original潮玩 IP production [3][29]. Summary by Sections 1.潮玩 Industry Overview -潮玩 differs from traditional toys by emphasizing artistic and personalized expression, often based on licensed cultural IP [11]. - The潮玩 market is diverse, with blind boxes holding the largest market share at 36.6% in 2024, followed by assembly toys and building sets at 19.6% [12]. 2. Dongguan潮玩 Industry Development Status - Dongguan's潮玩 industry is characterized by a steady optimization of its structure and a rich channel layout, with a focus on self-owned brands, licensed IP production, and OEM [31]. - In 2023, Dongguan's潮玩 industry achieved a revenue of nearly 23.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 19% [29]. 3. SWOT Analysis of Dongguan潮玩 Industry - **Strengths**: Strong policy support for the潮玩 industry, including initiatives to integrate AI into toy production and promote original IP development [39][40]. - **Weaknesses**: The industry faces challenges such as relatively low added value and brand recognition compared to national brands, with a significant reliance on OEM models [46][48]. - **Opportunities**: The rise of national cultural confidence and the trend of潮玩 going global present significant growth opportunities for Dongguan's潮玩 industry [3][24]. - **Threats**: Increased domestic competition and the comparative advantage of Southeast Asia in manufacturing costs pose challenges to Dongguan's潮玩 sector [3][24]. 4. Market Concentration - The潮玩 industry in China remains fragmented, with local manufacturers leveraging their unique advantages to break into broader markets [4][28]. 5. Industry Development Trends - The潮玩 industry is expected to continue evolving towards higher value-added segments, driven by technological advancements and policy support [3][40].