英伟达产业链

Search documents
广发证券:如果美联储降息 利好哪些资产和行业?
智通财经网· 2025-08-17 09:20
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of "preventive" interest rate cuts in September 2024, with concerns over tariffs causing inflationary pressures to temporarily halt the rate cuts [1] - Recent data shows that July's non-farm employment figures were weaker than expected, and the core inflation rate for July has seen a decline in prices for core goods heavily reliant on imports [1] - The PPI data for July exceeded expectations, but its direct impact on the PCE index is limited, indicating that inflationary pressures from tariffs are manageable in the short term [1] Group 2 - Key sectors to focus on include high-growth hard technology sectors such as overseas computing power supply chains and certain stabilized leaders in the new energy sector [1] - Other sectors of interest are those with clear upward trends, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, and core Chinese assets with global competitive advantages, including leading internet companies in Hong Kong [1] Group 3 - The logic of global capital rebalancing suggests that as the U.S. economic fundamentals weaken, funds will flow towards non-U.S. assets with stronger short-term growth prospects [4] - Assets likely to attract global capital include safe-haven assets like gold and cryptocurrencies, as well as developed market assets with recovery expectations, such as those in Europe and Japan [4] Group 4 - A-shares are positioned to attract foreign investment due to strong performance since July, and the narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. post-rate cuts is expected to facilitate capital inflows [7] - The domestic economic fundamentals and policy changes anticipated in the second half of the year are expected to enhance foreign investor confidence [7] Group 5 - Historical data indicates that preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have generally led to positive performance in equity markets, with the S&P 500 showing significant gains during such periods [2][8] - The performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index during previous preventive rate cuts suggests potential for similar outcomes in the upcoming cycle [8] Group 6 - Foreign capital tends to favor local assets that exhibit competitive advantages, with a focus on core industries and sectors that demonstrate stable and sustainable earnings [10] - The preference for industries with high current economic momentum indicates a strategic approach to investment in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and leading internet companies [10]