11月24日，A股AI算力龙头工业富联（601138）（601138.SH）股价午后跳水，一度触及跌停，最终收 跌7.80%，报55.94元/股，创下两个月以来的新低。作为市值一度突破1.3万亿元的AI算力核心标的，工 业富联单日蒸发市值近千亿元，近三个交易日累计跌幅已超14%。 同日，有投资者在互动平台向工业富联提问：有消息传，公司已经下调了第四季度业绩目标，同时也有 观点认为，大客户在L10/L11商业模式上会有调整，可能对公司在业务布局和盈利能力产生不利影响。 请问属实吗，公司如何看待？ 华安证券（600909）亦给出较高的增长指引，并预计工业富联2025年—2027年EPS分别为1.82元、3.36 元和4.30元，对应归母净利润分别为362亿元、668亿元和853亿元，维持"增持"评级。该机构指出，尽 管工业富联三季度经营性现金流为负，但主要是由于为满足旺盛AI服务器需求而大幅增加备货所致； 截至三季度末，工业富联存货高达1646.6亿元，较年初接近翻倍，为第四季度及2026年的收入确认提供 了有力保障。 值得注意的是，目前机构目标价与工业富联现价存在显著差距。11月初前述机构研报发布时，工业富联 ...

2025.11.24 本文字数：1314，阅读时长大约2.5分钟 作者 |第一财经郑栩彤 关于"AI泡沫论"的讨论仍在进行，美股多只算力相关个股股价震荡。上周英伟达发布超市场预期的最新季度财报后，该公司股价连续两日下跌。 A股的英伟达概念股工业富联近期股价也在震荡下行。10月30日到11月24日，工业富联股价已累计下跌30.77%，市值蒸发超4000亿元。截至11月24日收 盘，工业富联股价下跌7.8%。 工业富联第三季度营收和净利润则则创下单季度历史新高。第三季度营收2431.72亿元，同比增长42.81%，净利润103.73亿元，同比增长62.04%，前三季 度营收逼近去年全年营收。 但一些机构已在第三季度减持英伟达。对冲基金桥水在第三季度大幅减持芯片巨头英伟达，减持比例近三分之二。"硅谷风投教父"彼得·蒂尔旗下的基金 Thiel Macro Fund第三季度出售了约53.7万股英伟达股票，占其投资组合的近40%。 除了机构减持，英伟达与OpenAI的绑定关系也受到市场关注，英伟达此前计划助力OpenAI构建和部署至少10吉瓦的AI数据中心，这些数据中心包含数百 万块英伟达GPU。但OpenAI在大模型领 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong demand for AI chips, as indicated by NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang, leading to a surge in stock prices of NVIDIA-related companies, particularly Industrial Fulian, which reached a market capitalization of 1.6 trillion yuan, a historical high [3]. Financial Performance - Industrial Fulian reported record-high revenue and net profit for Q3 this year, with revenue of 243.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.81%, and net profit of 10.37 billion yuan, up 62.04% [4][5]. - For the first three quarters of the year, the company achieved revenue of 603.93 billion yuan, a 38.4% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 224.87 billion yuan, growing by 48.52% [4][5]. Business Segments - The cloud computing segment saw significant growth, with revenue increasing over 65% year-on-year in the first three quarters, and over 75% in Q3 alone, driven by the demand for AI cabinet products [6]. - Revenue from cloud service providers accounted for 70% of the cloud computing business, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 150%, and GPU AI server revenue from cloud service providers surged over 300% [6]. Market Position and Partnerships - Industrial Fulian has strengthened its market share among major clients, collaborating closely with NVIDIA and other ODM manufacturers [6]. - Morgan Stanley estimates that by 2024, 28% of NVIDIA's HGX/DGX servers will come from Hon Hai and its subsidiary Industrial Fulian, making it the second-largest supplier [6]. Profitability Metrics - Despite strong revenue growth, Industrial Fulian's gross margin remains low compared to AI chip manufacturers, with projected gross margins of 8.1% and 7.3% for 2023 and 2024, respectively [7]. - The gross margin for Industrial Fulian in the first three quarters of this year was 6.76%, showing improvement from the first half but still below the projected margins for the coming years [8]. Industry Outlook - Significant capital expenditure increases are anticipated from major cloud service providers, with total spending projected to rise from $270 billion in 2024 to $443 billion in 2025, and further growth expected in subsequent years [10]. - The server market is expected to reach $380 billion by 2028 and approach $500 billion by 2030, driven by the next phase of AI infrastructure deployment [10].

Core Insights - Industrial Fulian's stock price increased by over 3% on August 29, reaching 50.77 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 1.01 trillion yuan, ranking 13th among A-shares [2] - From the beginning of the year to August 28, Industrial Fulian's stock price rose by 132.05%, and it ranked 31st in the market capitalization of Chinese enterprises as of June 30, 2025, now rising to 18th place [4] - The company reported a revenue of 360.76 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.58%, and a net profit of 12.11 billion yuan, up 38.61%, both reaching historical highs for the same period [4] Company Performance - Industrial Fulian's AI server revenue in the cloud computing sector is steadily increasing, with overall server revenue growth exceeding 50% in Q2, and revenue from cloud service provider servers growing over 150% year-on-year [4] - AI server revenue increased by over 60% year-on-year, with shipments of NVIDIA's GB200 series products rising quarterly [4] Industry Trends - Capital expenditures for AI infrastructure construction by major global cloud service providers are expected to continue expanding through 2025, with AI server demand projected to grow, reaching a market value of 298 billion dollars, accounting for over 70% of the total server market value [4] - Industrial Fulian has a close partnership with major AI chip manufacturer NVIDIA, with estimates indicating that 28% of NVIDIA's HGX/DGX servers in 2024 will come from Industrial Fulian [5]

Group 1 - Industrial Fulian's stock price increased by over 3% on August 29, reaching 50.77 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 1.01 trillion yuan, ranking 13th among A-shares [1] - From the beginning of the year to August 28, Industrial Fulian's stock price has risen by 132.05%, and it ranked 31st in the market capitalization of Chinese enterprises as of June 30, 2025, moving up to 18th place in real-time rankings [3] - In the first half of 2025, Industrial Fulian reported revenue of 360.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.58%, and a net profit of 12.11 billion yuan, up 38.61%, both achieving historical highs for the same period [3] Group 2 - The company's overall server revenue grew by over 50% in the second quarter, with cloud service provider server revenue increasing by over 150% and AI server revenue rising by over 60% [4] - Global capital expenditure for AI infrastructure construction by major cloud service providers is expected to continue expanding in 2025, with AI server demand projected to reach a market value of 298 billion dollars, accounting for over 70% of the total server market value [4] - Industrial Fulian has a close partnership with major AI chip manufacturer NVIDIA, with an estimated 28% of NVIDIA's HGX/DGX servers in 2024 expected to come from Industrial Fulian [4]