公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 由于预计高昂的价格将推动存储器产量激增，以满足人工智能服务器日益增长的需求，芯片制造设备 制造商东京电子有望从创纪录的资本投资和研发支出中获益。 去年秋季内存价格飙升，基准DRAM现货价格较上年同期上涨了近十倍。东京电子社长河合俊树此前 已预料到这一波价格上涨。 "我们可能正在进入一个长期的超级周期，"他指的是需求快速增长的时期。 随着人工智能的广泛应用，为了满足这些系统巨大的处理能力需求，全球数据中心如雨后春笋般涌 现，这也催生了对芯片的巨大需求。河合预计，从今年开始，存储器制造商将采购芯片制造设备以满 足这一需求。 对高带宽内存的投资正在迅速增长。英伟达等公司的人工智能半导体采用多颗HBM芯片，供应日益 紧张。韩国SK海力士和三星电子正在斥资数十亿美元建设生产设施，预计将于2027年至2028年左右 投产。 东京电子将希望寄托于用于在晶圆上形成电路的蚀刻设备。HBM采用多层堆叠的DRAM芯片，随着 性能的提升，层数也会增加。这需要更多的步骤来连接这些芯片，东京电子预计这将提升对相关工艺 系统的需求。 该公司在截至去年 3 月的财年中，DRAM 互连蚀刻系统的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of semiconductor equipment companies in the U.S. stock market, driven by anticipated returns from investments in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, which are expected to benefit manufacturing equipment suppliers following the semiconductor sector [1][2] Group 2 - ASML's stock price increased by 8.78% on January 2, closing at $1228.19, supported by its dominant position in EUV exposure equipment through partnerships with major semiconductor manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix [1] - Lam Research's stock also showed strong momentum, rising 8.11% on January 2 and closing up 5.24%, as it leads the global etching equipment market [1] - Applied Materials (AMAT) saw its stock rise by 4.62% on January 2 and an additional 5.75% on the same day, with its products covering deposition and etching equipment [1] - KLA's stock performance was robust as well, with increases of 4.89% and 6.12% on consecutive trading days [1] Group 3 - Bernstein raised ASML's target stock price from $935 to $1528 and upgraded its investment rating from "neutral" to "outperform," citing demand for equipment from semiconductor companies expanding their factories [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the supply shortage will persist this year due to surging demand for AI chips, rating AMAT as a top priority stock [2] - Bank of America forecasts that global semiconductor sales will exceed $1 trillion this year [2]

在与中国当地企业的竞争日益激烈的背景下，Tokyo Electron计划扩大销售用于人工智能 （AI）服务器的先进半导体的制造设备。负责财务的常务执行董事川本弘指出："到2026财年 面向先进半导体（的制造设备）将增至总销售额近4成，足以弥补中国市场的下滑"，表示将 力争实现中期经营计划中提出的销售额营业利润率超过35%的目标。 记者： Tokyo Electron在7月下调了2025财年的业绩预测，10月又进行了上调。有观点 认为半导体行业已进入需求急剧扩大的"超级周期"，您如何看待制造设备的需求趋势？ 川本弘： 在旺盛的数据中心投资背景下，半导体存储器的需求强劲，价格大幅上涨。作 为客户的存储器厂商的设备开工率提升，我们已售出设备的改造需求等也在增长。 不过，在短期存储数据的DRAM领域，新增设备采购的大规模投资预计要等到2026年下 半年客户工厂腾出空间后才会启动。长期存储数据的NAND型闪存厂商的投资则会稍晚一些。 因为NAND市场行情对设备需求的传导存在时间差。 接受《日本经济新闻》采访的Tokyo Electron常务执行董事川本弘 Tokyo Electron的CFO川本弘：我们在中国市场的销售 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Taiwanese prosecution has accused Tokyo Electron of failing to prevent its employees from stealing trade secrets from TSMC, seeking penalties under commercial secret and national security laws [1][2]. Group 1: Incident Overview - Tokyo Electron is being held responsible for a failed data theft incident involving TSMC's 2nm process technology, which is critical to TSMC's operations and competitive edge in the semiconductor industry [1]. - Three former and current TSMC employees were charged with attempting to steal sensitive data to assist Tokyo Electron in improving its etching equipment [1][2]. Group 2: Legal Actions and Company Response - The Taiwanese authorities are pursuing imprisonment for the individuals involved in the theft, while Tokyo Electron has stated it is cooperating with the investigation and has terminated one employee linked to the incident [2]. - Tokyo Electron claims to have strict policies in place to prevent employee misconduct and has not found evidence of sensitive data being leaked to third parties [2]. Group 3: Industry Implications - This incident marks the second significant legal action taken by TSMC against international companies attempting to acquire its key technologies, highlighting the ongoing challenges in protecting intellectual property within the semiconductor sector [2]. - The situation underscores the importance of TSMC and Taiwan in the global semiconductor supply chain, especially amid the rapid growth of the artificial intelligence industry [2].

Summary of NAURA (002371.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NAURA (002371.SZ) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment (SPE) - **Rating**: Buy Key Points Industry Dynamics - NAURA is positioned to benefit from increased semiconductor capital expenditure (Capex) in China, projected to grow by 5% YoY to US$40 billion in 2025 and US$42 billion in 2026 [1][2] - Rising demand for local semiconductor equipment is driven by increased cloud Capex spending from Chinese cloud service providers (CSPs) focusing on AI applications [2] Financial Performance - Earnings have been revised upwards by 2% and 3% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, due to higher revenues from etching and deposition tool shipments [3] - Gross margin (GM) is expected to decrease slightly by 0.1 percentage points in 2026 and 2027 due to product mix changes, while operational efficiency improvements are expected to reduce the operating expense (Opex) ratio by 0.2 percentage points [3] Revenue and Profit Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb39.34 billion, Rmb51.28 billion, and Rmb61.63 billion, respectively, reflecting a growth of 1% and 2% from previous estimates [4] - Net income is projected to increase to Rmb10.54 billion in 2026 and Rmb12.09 billion in 2027, marking a 2% and 3% increase from prior estimates [4] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for NAURA has been revised to Rmb561, based on a 38.4x P/E ratio for 2026, up from Rmb492 previously [6][14] - The target P/E is derived from a regression analysis of global SPEs' P/E ratios and forward earnings growth [6][14] Risks - Key downside risks include potential US export restrictions on Chinese semiconductor firms, which could hinder capacity expansion and reduce demand for NAURA's equipment [15] - Slower-than-expected capacity expansion at NAURA's mature node customers may lead to slower revenue growth than anticipated [15] Additional Insights - The company is expanding its product offerings, including new manufacturing capacities for advanced nodes to meet the demand for AI chipsets in China [2] - The localization trend in China is evident, with major telecom companies like China Mobile and China Unicom announcing new AI computing projects utilizing local chipsets [2] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding NAURA's market position, financial outlook, and associated risks, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors.

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is entering a significant expansion phase for its 2nm process technology, driven by strong demand for AI chips, leading to a substantial investment in etching equipment, which is critical for wafer fabrication [4][6]. Group 1: TSMC's 2nm Expansion - TSMC is making unprecedented investments in expanding its 2nm production capacity due to the rising demand for AI chips from international clients [4][6]. - The etching process is a key step in wafer fabrication, with each high-precision etching machine costing around 3 to 4 million USD (over 100 million TWD), and each 2nm facility requiring more than 100 such machines [6][7]. Group 2: Supplier Competition - TSMC employs a multi-supplier strategy to mitigate risks and achieve cost efficiency, with major suppliers including Tokyo Electron (TEL), Lam Research, and Applied Materials [5][6]. - TEL holds a dominant market share in critical equipment like photolithography and furnace systems, but faces stiff competition in the etching equipment sector [5][6]. Group 3: Equipment Supplier Dynamics - The etching equipment market is characterized by a "three-horse race" among TEL, Lam Research, and Applied Materials, with each company focusing on different segments of the etching process [6][7]. - Suppliers are under pressure to enhance their equipment to meet TSMC's production demands, which is crucial for gaining market share in this competitive landscape [6][7]. Group 4: Confidentiality Breach Incident - A recent incident involving TSMC's etching equipment procurement revealed that engineers from TEL attempted to access confidential data to improve their equipment, leading to legal actions against them [7][8]. - The prosecution emphasizes the severity of the breach, as it threatens Taiwan's semiconductor industry's international competitiveness, with significant penalties sought for the involved individuals [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC plans to exclude Chinese manufacturers' equipment from its advanced semiconductor production lines, particularly for the upcoming 2nm factory, due to concerns over potential U.S. restrictions and geopolitical risks [2][4][5] Group 1: Production Plans - TSMC will begin mass production of 2nm products at its factory in Hsinchu, northern Taiwan, followed by production in Kaohsiung and a facility under construction in Arizona, USA [4][5] - The company previously used equipment from Chinese manufacturers, including AMEC and Mattson Technology, but decided to eliminate these in the 2nm production process to mitigate risks [4][5] Group 2: Geopolitical Concerns - The decision to exclude Chinese equipment is influenced by fears of increased U.S. restrictions and geopolitical uncertainties [2][4] - A proposed U.S. bill aims to prohibit the use of foreign equipment from "unreliable" countries in semiconductor factories receiving U.S. government funding, which could include Chinese equipment [4][5] Group 3: Supply Chain Strategy - TSMC is investigating alternatives to reduce reliance on Chinese-made materials and chemicals for its production lines in Taiwan and the U.S., enhancing supply chain resilience [5] - The company plans to use more local suppliers in China to comply with localization policies and reduce carbon footprints [5] Group 4: Industry Implications - Chinese semiconductor manufacturers are increasingly adopting domestic equipment, presenting growth opportunities for local firms like North Huachuang, while foreign companies may face declining market shares in China [5]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is characterized by a complex, interwoven global supply chain, making unilateral actions by either the US or China difficult in their competition for chip manufacturing dominance [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - The semiconductor production process relies on a global network for mining, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing, with certain countries and companies holding proprietary technologies that dominate the market [1]. - Ultra-pure quartz, essential for semiconductor production, is primarily sourced from a single location in North Carolina, which supplies about 90% of the global ultra-pure quartz [1]. Group 2: Market Share and Competition - Shin-Etsu Chemical holds approximately 30% of the global wafer market, establishing itself as a leader in the industry [1]. - TSMC commands a significant 67.1% share of the global foundry market, followed by Samsung at 8.1% and China's SMIC at 5.5%, collectively accounting for over 80% of the market [2]. - The concentration of market power is expected to persist as leading companies continue to invest heavily in research and development, making it challenging for new entrants to disrupt their dominance [2].