Core Insights - The report from Caitong Securities highlights Beike's "one body, three wings" strategy, showcasing significant platform integration potential and growth elasticity in new sectors such as home decoration and housing rental [1] - The home decoration industry in China has a large market size exceeding 3 trillion yuan in 2022, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 8.1% from 2025 to 2030, potentially reaching over 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [1] - Beike's rental business, particularly the "Shengxin Rent" service, has shown rapid growth, with over 590,000 managed housing units as of June 30, 2025, representing an 88% year-on-year increase [2] Home Decoration Industry - The home decoration market is characterized by low concentration and a fragmented enterprise landscape, providing Beike with an opportunity to leverage its scale advantages for industry consolidation [1] - The company's early entry into the home decoration sector, including partnerships and acquisitions, has led to a positive operational cycle in core high-energy cities [1] Rental Business - The core competitiveness of the "Shengxin Rent" business model lies in service quality and asset operation efficiency, with a focus on standardizing service processes and enhancing operational collaboration with housing transaction services [2] - The rental business has achieved significant revenue growth, with 10.7 billion yuan in revenue for the first half of 2025, an 85% year-on-year increase, and an improvement in profit margin from -1.0% in 2023 to 7.6% [2]

Group 1 - The core strategy of the company is centered around "one body and three wings," focusing on home decoration and rental housing, showcasing significant platform integration potential and growth elasticity [1] - The home decoration industry has a large market size and high growth rate, but low market concentration, providing the company with scale advantages to consolidate the industry [1] - The home decoration market in China is projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.1% from 2025 to 2030, potentially reaching over 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [1] Group 2 - The company's rental business includes decentralized and centralized rental housing management services, with the largest segment being the "省心租" service [2] - Service quality and asset operation efficiency are the core competitive advantages of the "省心租" business model, with a focus on standardizing service actions and improving service capabilities [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the company managed over 590,000 rental units, representing an 88% year-on-year growth, with rental business revenue reaching 10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading integrated real estate transaction and service platform in China, with a strong focus on both new and second-hand housing transactions, rental services, and home decoration [12][13] - The company has a stable market position in the second-hand housing sector, with significant growth potential due to the recovery of transaction volumes and a stable commission rate [8][30] - The "One Body Three Wings" strategy aims to expand into home decoration and rental services, creating new growth avenues [8][72] - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of Non-GAAP net profits increasing from 7.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.8 billion yuan in 2027 [85] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the real estate brokerage industry and is recognized as the first stock in China's residential service sector [12] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the founding team holding nearly 50% of voting rights [16][18] 2. Real Estate Brokerage Business - The second-hand housing transaction volume has shown a recovery, with a 30% year-on-year increase in 2023, reaching approximately 7.1 trillion yuan [30] - The company’s second-hand housing transaction volume increased by 13.7% to 1.1638 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, contributing to a 4% rise in revenue to 13.6 billion yuan [46] - The new housing business has a market share of 12.6% as of June 30, 2025, with revenue growth of 29.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [62] 3. Strategic Expansion - The company is expanding its home decoration business, which has significant market potential, with the home decoration industry expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.1% from 2025 to 2030 [72] - The rental business has seen rapid expansion, with over 590,000 units under management as of June 30, 2025, representing an 88% year-on-year increase [78] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 103.3 billion yuan, 117.1 billion yuan, and 130.6 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits expected to be 7.4 billion yuan, 8.8 billion yuan, and 10.8 billion yuan [85]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, poised to benefit from real estate recovery, with its three wings of business gradually forming a second growth curve [3][11]. - The company has launched a strategic shift from traditional real estate transactions to comprehensive living services, encapsulated in its "One Body, Three Wings" strategy [1][36]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, originally founded as Beijing Lianjia in 2001, has evolved into the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, with a significant focus on digital transformation and integration of services [1][20]. - The company has a unique dual-class share structure, with core management holding nearly half of the voting rights, ensuring strategic control [28][29]. Real Estate Brokerage Business - The brokerage business benefits from a strong online and offline integration, with 50,000 active stores and 445,000 active agents by the end of 2024 [1]. - The company has developed a robust mechanism to address issues like fake listings and price discrepancies through its "Building Dictionary" and ACN network, enhancing transaction efficiency [1][10]. Home Decoration and Furnishing Business - The home decoration market is projected to reach approximately 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024, with the company leveraging its brokerage business to drive traffic and enhance service delivery through digitalization [2][10]. - Following the acquisition of Saintu Decoration, the company is in a phase of scaling its operations through a combination of vertical management and internet platform models [2][10]. Rental and Residential Development - The rental business, centered around the "Worry-Free Rental" model, aims for sustainable profitability by improving property turnover rates and reducing vacancy periods [2][10]. - The "Beihome" initiative is being piloted in major cities, with plans for expansion in 2025 [2][10]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to see a net profit of 5.77 billion, 6.69 billion, and 7.44 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28, 24, and 22 [3][11]. - The report highlights the stability of the brokerage business and the high growth potential of the home decoration and rental segments as key drivers for future profitability [3][11].