推动整体通胀上涨的主要因素是能源成本的攀升，其中服装是本月涨幅最大的产品之一，价格上涨了 0.7%。这很可能反映了更高的关税。 有分析指出，在美国政府停摆的背景下，这份CPI数据可能有助于说服美联储官员们在12月再度放宽货 币政策。 CPI报告发布后，交易员增加了对美联储今年还会降息两次的押注。利率互换显示，交易员几乎完全消 化了美联储下周降息25个基点的情景，并预计其12月将再度行动。交易员押注，美联储未来12个月内的 累计降息幅度料为120个基点。这将使基准利率降至2.9%，低于被视为中性水平的3%——该水平既不刺 激经济也不抑制经济。 关键时刻，美联储收获一则利好数据。 据最新披露的数据，美国9月通胀数据全线低于预期，市场对美联储降息的预期持续升温。美股开盘 后，三大指数全线走高，纳指大涨超1%，创出历史新高，道指、标普500指数均创出历史新高，美股大 型科技股集体走强，AMD大涨超7%，亦创出历史新高。 报告显示，美国9月CPI同比增长3%，核心CPI同比增长3%，均低于市场预期。有分析指出，这进一步 巩固了市场对于美联储将在年内继续降息的预期，为下周的利率决议扫清了障碍。交易员押注，美联储 未来12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the recent U.S. inflation data for September has come in lower than expected, which has led to increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near future [2][3][5]. Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, below the market expectation of 3.1%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, also below the expected 0.4% [3][5]. - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also rose by 3% year-on-year, lower than the anticipated 3.1%, and increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% [5][6]. Market Reaction - Following the CPI report, U.S. stock indices surged, with the Nasdaq rising over 1% to reach a historical high, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 also set new records [2][9]. - Major tech stocks performed strongly, with AMD increasing over 7%, marking a historical high, and other semiconductor stocks also seeing significant gains [9]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Analysts suggest that the CPI data strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates again in December, with traders betting on a cumulative rate cut of 120 basis points over the next 12 months [2][6]. - The report indicates that the Fed is likely to maintain a focus on softening employment data, even if core CPI remains above the 2% target [9][10]. Government Shutdown Impact - The article notes that the government shutdown has affected the timely release of economic data, with the Labor Statistics Bureau unable to collect necessary price information for October, complicating future policy decisions for the Fed [8][10].