Core Insights - Google is shifting its TPU strategy from primarily serving its own AI models to actively selling chips to third parties, directly competing with Nvidia [1][2] - Anthropic has become one of the first significant customers for Google's TPU, involving a deal for approximately 1 million TPUs, which includes both direct hardware purchases and rentals through Google Cloud Platform (GCP) [1][2][3] - The competitive landscape is changing, with OpenAI negotiating a 30% price discount in discussions with Nvidia by considering alternatives like TPUs [1] Group 1: Partnership with Anthropic - Google has mobilized its resources to provide TPUs to external customers, marking a significant step in its strategy to become a differentiated cloud service provider [2] - The partnership with Anthropic aligns with its goal to reduce reliance on Nvidia, with Google having made early investments in Anthropic while limiting its voting rights [2] - Anthropic will deploy TPUs in its own facilities and also rent additional TPUs through GCP, allowing Google to compete directly with Nvidia [3] Group 2: Financial Implications - The deal with Anthropic includes a direct sale of approximately $10 billion worth of TPU systems, with 400,000 TPUv7 chips, making Anthropic a key customer for Broadcom [3] - Anthropic's rental of an additional 600,000 TPUv7 chips through GCP is expected to generate about $42 billion in contract value, significantly contributing to GCP's order backlog [3] Group 3: Technical Advancements - TPUv7 "Ironwood" is nearing parity with Nvidia's Blackwell architecture in theoretical performance and memory bandwidth, with a competitive edge in pricing [5][12] - The total cost of ownership for each TPU is approximately 44% lower than Nvidia's GB200, and even with a premium for external customers, the cost remains 30%-50% lower than Nvidia systems [6][8] - Google is working to eliminate software compatibility barriers by developing native support for frameworks like PyTorch, aiming to make TPUs a viable alternative without requiring developers to overhaul their toolchains [10][12] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia is preparing a counterattack with its next-generation "Vera Rubin" chip, which may reshape the competitive landscape [13] - Google plans to develop TPUv8 in two versions, but analysts note that the designs are conservative and may face delays [13] - The success of Nvidia's upcoming chips could challenge Google's current pricing advantages, emphasizing the need for Nvidia to execute its technology roadmap effectively [13]

Core Insights - In November 2025, Google's market value increased by approximately $530 billion, while Nvidia's market value decreased by $620 billion, indicating a significant shift in the AI chip market dynamics [1][3][6] - Meta is reportedly in discussions with Google to purchase TPU chips, which could threaten Nvidia's dominance in the GPU market, where it currently holds about 85% market share [1][6][30] - The competition between TPU and GPU represents a technological divergence, with TPUs offering 2-3 times the energy efficiency compared to GPUs, particularly in AI workloads [1][11][25] Market Reactions - Google's stock rose by 13.87% in November, extending its year-to-date gain to 69%, while Nvidia's stock fell by nearly 12.59%, reducing its year-to-date gain to 27.96% [3][6] - The market reacted strongly to the news of Meta's potential shift, causing stock prices of Google's TPU manufacturing partners, such as Broadcom, to rise over 16% [6][30] Technological Developments - Google's TPU has undergone significant advancements over seven generations, with the latest Ironwood model expected to deliver 4 times the performance of its predecessors [10][11] - The TPU's design is specifically optimized for AI workloads, making it particularly effective for large language models and complex deep learning tasks [11][25] Competitive Landscape - Analysts are divided into two camps: the "win-win" camp believes the AI infrastructure market can support multiple players, while the "threat" camp sees Google's vertical integration as a significant challenge to Nvidia's market position [26][29] - Nvidia's CUDA platform is viewed as a strong barrier to entry, but Google's advancements in TPU technology and potential partnerships may pose a long-term threat to Nvidia's dominance [30][31] Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that the AI data center market could grow from $242 billion to $1.2 trillion by the end of the decade, with Nvidia's market share potentially decreasing from 85% to 75% [27][29] - The potential collaboration between Google and Meta could mark a significant shift in the AI chip market, positioning TPU as a viable alternative to Nvidia's offerings [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is actively defending its $4.5 trillion valuation against skepticism, particularly from critics like Michael Burry, by issuing a detailed memo to sell-side analysts [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Nvidia launched a public relations campaign to counter doubts about its valuation, which has decreased from a historical high of $5 trillion [1] - The company issued a memo to sell-side analysts addressing criticisms made by Michael Burry and other authors on Substack [1] - Nvidia responded to a report about Meta Platforms potentially using Google's AI chips, asserting that its own chips remain a generation ahead of competitors [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following a report from The Information about Meta's discussions with Google, Nvidia's stock price experienced a decline [1] - The memo from Nvidia was released after the report from The Information, indicating a strategic timing in response to market sentiment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. For example, gold is expected to break new highs, while silver is likely to reach previous highs. Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to a weaker US dollar, and zinc is expected to trade within a range [2][7][14]. - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical events. For instance, weak US JOLTS job openings data has strengthened the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut [7][14][17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to break new highs. The trend strength is 2, indicating a strong bullish view. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 814.88, with a daily increase of 1.31%, and the night - session closing price was 821.68, with a night - session increase of 1.40% [2][7][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to reach previous highs. The trend strength is 2, also indicating a strong bullish view. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9820, with a daily decrease of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 9918.00, with a night - session increase of 1.34% [2][7][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the US dollar under pressure, copper prices are firm. The trend strength is 1, suggesting a moderately bullish view. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,110, with a daily increase of 0.56%, and the night - session closing price was 80260, with a night - session increase of 0.19% [2][13][15]. - **Zinc**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22285, with a daily decrease of 0.18% [2][16][18]. - **Lead**: With continuous inventory reduction, lead prices are supported. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16865, with a daily increase of 0.09% [2][19]. - **Tin**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 1, a moderately bullish view. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 273,120, with a daily decrease of 0.31% [2][22][27]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20710, with a decrease of 10 compared to the previous day [2][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The price center is moving down. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2992, with a decrease of 30 compared to the previous day [2][28][29]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamentals and be affected by news - driven sentiment. Stainless steel prices are expected to have narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790, and the closing price of the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,915 [2][31][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Spot trading has improved, but the continuous increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the futures market. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 72,080, with a decrease of 1,200 compared to the previous day [2][37][41]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With warehouse receipt accumulation, the strategy is to short at high prices. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490, with an increase of 20 compared to the previous day [2][42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market news. The trend strength is 1, a moderately bullish view. The closing price of PS2511 was 52,160, with an increase of 285 compared to the previous day [2][43][45]. - **Iron Ore**: Due to repeated macro - expectations, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the futures was 777.0, with an increase of 5.5 and a daily increase of 0.71% [2][46]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,034, with a decrease of 10 and a decrease of 0.33%; the closing price of HC2510 was 3,310, with a decrease of 6 and a decrease of 0.18% [2][48][49]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511 was 5520, with a decrease of 8; the closing price of Manganese Silico - Manganese 2511 was 5720, with a decrease of 10 [2][53][55]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of JM2601 was 1106, with a decrease of 6.5 and a decrease of 0.6%; the closing price of J2601 was 1594, with a decrease of 2.5 and a decrease of 0.2% [2][56]. - **Log**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 775.5, with a daily decrease of 2.8% [2][58][61]. - **Para - Xylene**: The cost has collapsed, and the unilateral trend has weakened. The trend strength is not provided. The closing price of the PX main contract was 6810, with a decrease of 24 and a decrease of 0.35% [2][62]. - **PTA**: The strategy is to take a long position in the spread between different months. The trend strength is not provided. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4732, with a decrease of 24 and a decrease of 0.50% [2][62]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak. The trend strength is not provided. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4331, with a decrease of 8 and a decrease of 0.18% [2][62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Lacks continuous driving forces and is waiting for a correction. The trend strength is not provided [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment. The trend strength is not provided [2][61]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to trade friction concerns, US soybeans are weak, while domestic soybean meal is slightly stronger. The trend strength is not provided [2][63]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is not provided [2][65]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the production and cost in Guangxi. The trend strength is not provided [2][66]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the new crop listing situation. The trend strength is not provided [2][67]. - **Egg**: The near - term trading sentiment is strong. The trend strength is not provided [2][69]. - **Live Pig**: The spot market is weak, while the long - term expectation is strong. The trend strength is not provided [2][70]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the new peanut listing. The trend strength is not provided [2][71].

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics reported a significant decline in its second-quarter operating profit, which is expected to be 4.6 trillion KRW, a 56% year-on-year drop and a 31.24% quarter-on-quarter decrease, marking the lowest level in six quarters and falling short of market expectations [2][5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The anticipated sales for the second quarter are projected to remain flat at 74 trillion KRW [5][21]. - The operating profit of 4.6 trillion KRW is approximately 241 million RMB, indicating a substantial decline compared to previous quarters [5][21]. - This performance is significantly below the LSEG SmartEstimate prediction of a 39% decline to 6.3 trillion KRW [6]. Group 2: Reasons for Decline - The primary reasons for the poor performance include inventory value adjustments and uncertainties due to trade tensions, which have weakened the company's profitability [3][8]. - Samsung's competitive disadvantage in the AI chip sector has become increasingly apparent, particularly in the high bandwidth memory (HBM) chip business [9][10]. - The U.S. trade policies have hindered chip sales, and the company has faced losses in its non-memory chip business due to low utilization rates and trade policies [8][17]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like SK Hynix and Micron Technology are benefiting from strong demand for advanced HBM chips, with SK Hynix expected to report record quarterly earnings [11][14]. - Analysts predict that by 2025, SK Hynix will hold a 57% market share in the HBM market, while Samsung's share will be 27% [12]. - Samsung's stock performance has lagged behind its competitors, with only a 15% increase this year compared to SK Hynix's 65% and Micron's 37% [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the dismal second-quarter results, Samsung expresses cautious optimism for the second half of the year, anticipating a narrowing of losses in its foundry business as demand gradually recovers [18][28]. - Analysts suggest that Samsung's profitability may rebound in the third quarter, contingent on the progress of HBM supply to Nvidia and an overall recovery in chip demand [19][28]. - Samsung has announced a stock buyback worth 3.9 trillion KRW to boost investor confidence [28].