Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on the 19th of this month, with limited impact on global liquidity due to previous rate hikes since March last year [1] - The most dangerous phase of liquidity shock has passed, as the futures market has already closed the most active "carry trade" positions, and the Federal Reserve's expansionary policy is stabilizing market liquidity expectations [1] - Concerns about the "AI bubble" in the US stock market and the overall vulnerability of the market may lead to a liquidity shock triggered by the yen's interest rate hike [1][2] Group 2 - The technology sector in the US stock market may experience adjustments that could prompt the Federal Reserve to resume quantitative easing, leading to a quick recovery in capital markets [2] - The outlook for major asset allocation remains positive for gold and RMB assets, driven by China's expanding export surplus and the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, which will support the long-term appreciation of the RMB [2] Group 3 - The optical fiber and cable industry is showing signs of recovery, with prices entering an upward channel, as retail prices for scattered fibers have rebounded by approximately 15%-20% [3] - The demand for high-value products such as multimode and ultra-low loss fibers is surging due to the explosion of AI computing power, leading manufacturers to shift capacity towards high-end products [3][4] - The growth in overseas demand is driving a strong "volume and price increase" trend in exports, with export values for optical rods, fibers, and cables expected to grow by over 50% year-on-year by October 2025 [3] Group 4 - Domestic manufacturers are maintaining restraint in expanding core optical rod capacity due to previous years of capacity clearing and management, which will limit short-term supply amid rapidly increasing demand [4] - The mismatch between supply and demand in the context of sustained demand growth will support continued price increases in the optical fiber industry [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.621 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.376 billion yuan, up 2.64% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin remains under pressure, with a gross margin of 13.35% for the first three quarters, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, and a gross margin of 12.92% for Q3, which is relatively stable year-on-year but down 0.64 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company has successfully won several marine project bids, with a total order amount of approximately 20 billion yuan in hand, which is expected to support rapid growth in the future [2]. - A significant breakthrough was achieved with the successful bid for the ±500kV DC submarine cable project, showcasing the company's strong technical capabilities in the marine energy sector [3]. - The company has demonstrated its ability to industrialize various new types of optical fibers, including hollow-core fibers, which have passed quality inspections and achieved advanced performance levels [4]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity to meet future demand, with a new project aimed at producing special optical fibers set to be completed by February 2026 [5]. - In the AI sector, the company is collaborating with industry partners to develop advanced cooling solutions and a full range of optical module products to support domestic supercomputing center construction [6]. Financial Summary - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 3 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 14, and 12 times [7]. - The total share capital is approximately 2,466.73 million shares, with a total market capitalization of about 53.48 billion yuan [8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.87 yuan in 2023, increasing to 1.87 yuan by 2027 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 32.05 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.613 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.24% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 18.781 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.64%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.056 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 3.63% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has secured multiple marine project contracts, with an order backlog of approximately 20 billion yuan in the energy interconnection sector, which is expected to support future growth [3]. - The company has demonstrated the capability for industrialization of various new types of optical fibers, including hollow-core fibers, which have achieved international advanced performance levels [4]. - The company is actively expanding production to meet future demand, with a new advanced optical fiber materials R&D and manufacturing center set to be completed by February 2026 [5]. - The company is strategically positioning itself in the AI sector, launching new cooling solutions and a full range of optical module products to support domestic supercomputing centers [6]. Financial Summary - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 13.59%, with a net profit margin of 5.4%. In Q2, the gross margin was 13.56%, and the net profit margin improved to 6.05% [2]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 3.3 billion, 4.1 billion, and 5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 12, and 10 times [7]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 62.49 billion yuan in 2023 to 85.54 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The demand for new types of optical fibers is expected to experience rapid growth in the AI era, driven by the need for high capacity, low latency, and long-distance transmission in optical networks [1][9] - The company has demonstrated strong industrialization capabilities in the next-generation optical fiber core materials sector, showcasing various new optical fiber products at industry exhibitions [2][19] - The company is actively expanding production capacity to meet future demand, with a new advanced optical fiber materials R&D and manufacturing center project underway, expected to be completed by February 2026 [2][25] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 3.47 billion, 4.27 billion, and 5.12 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 10, and 8 times respectively [3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 47.62 billion yuan in 2023 to 94.17 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.47% [3][30] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to increase from 5.90 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.32 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][30] Market Position and Trends - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for multimode, ultra-low loss, and hollow-core optical fibers, particularly in data centers [1][19] - The successful commercialization of hollow-core optical fibers in China marks a significant advancement in the optical communication technology landscape, with the first such fiber being deployed in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [15][24]