存量市场特征 超长信用债走跌。本周（2026.1.5-2026.1.9，下同）在股债跷板效应、冲量资金撤退及长债供给压力等多重因素影响 下，超长信用债收益率总体上行。与上周相比，2.8%以上收益率的存量超长信用债只数增加至 174 只。 一级发行情况 超长产业债供给量回落至低点。本周超长信用新债供给总计 50.3 亿，发行主体高度集中于城投平台。发行利率方面， 在债市整体震荡、投资者情绪脆弱的背景下，市场对超长信用债要求更高的风险溢价，本周超长城投新债利率上行至 3%附近。可尽管票面利率持续上行，超长城投债认购热度依旧低迷，市场对期限跨越化债节点的超长城投债的不确定 性担忧加剧。 二级成交表现 超长信用债指数续跌。本周股市涨势迅猛，对债市定价造成不小的冲击。不同于银行次级债表现出的韧性，周内多数 中长期限普信债全价指数价格下跌，其中 10 年以上 AA+信用债价格下跌 0.05%。 超长信用债活跃度回升。本周政府债券供给压力以及股市情绪回暖对长端利率构成持续扰动，超长信用债二级市场收 益震荡格局延续，10 年以上普信债品种平均成交收益率上行至 2.65%以上。年后超长信用债成交笔数回升至 350 笔以 上，一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The allocation value of ultra - long credit bonds has increased, with rising trading volume and a higher proportion of low - valuation transactions. The trading volume and price performance vary among different regions and industries of ultra - long urban investment bonds and ultra - long industrial bonds [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ultra - long Credit Bonds: Rising Trading Volume and Higher Proportion of Low - valuation Transactions - **Trading Volume**: The daily trading activity of ultra - long credit bonds increased this week. The average daily trading volume was 3.3 transactions, up from 3.0 last week. The trading volume of ultra - long credit bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 - 10 years increased significantly. The total trading volume this week was 30.3 billion yuan, a 12.64% increase from last week. The trading activity of industrial bonds was higher than that of urban investment bonds [2][11]. - **Trading Term**: The institutional preference for duration decreased. The average trading term of ultra - long credit bonds was 9.83 years, a decrease of 0.31 years from last week. The average trading term of ultra - long urban investment bonds decreased by 1.07 years, and that of industrial bonds decreased by 0.14 years [3][12]. - **Trading Price**: The trading yield of ultra - long credit bonds increased by 1bp to 2.37%. The trading yield of ultra - long urban investment bonds increased by 8bp, while that of ultra - long industrial bonds decreased by 1bp. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of ultra - long credit bonds rose to 53%, with a significant increase in ultra - long industrial bonds from 38% last week. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of credit bonds with a remaining maturity of 15 - 20 years decreased by about 55 percentage points [3][13]. 3.2 Ultra - long Urban Investment Bonds: Rising Trading Volume in Xinjiang and Sichuan, Marginal Increase in the Proportion of Low - valuation Transactions in Hebei - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of ultra - long urban investment bonds in Xinjiang was relatively high at 1.47 billion yuan this week. The trading volume in Hebei and Shandong decreased significantly compared to last week, by 870 million yuan and 490 million yuan respectively, while that in Xinjiang and Sichuan increased [15]. - **Trading Term**: The average trading term of ultra - long urban investment bonds was 8.68 years. The trading term of ultra - long urban investment bonds in Liaoning increased by 0.12 years compared to last week, while that in Anhui decreased by 14.03 years [17]. - **Trading Price**: The trading yields of urban investment bonds in Liaoning and Shandong were relatively high, exceeding 3%. The trading yields of ultra - long urban investment bonds in Shandong and Beijing increased by 38bp and 32bp respectively compared to last week, while those in Fujian and Zhejiang decreased by 21bp and 16bp respectively. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of ultra - long urban investment bonds in Xinjiang decreased by 86 percentage points compared to last week, while that in Hebei and Hubei increased [17]. 3.3 Ultra - long Industrial Bonds: Rising Trading Volume in Utilities and Petrochemical Industries, Decreasing Proportion of Low - valuation Transactions in Commerce and Retail and Coal Industries - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds in the utilities industry was relatively high at 9.86 billion yuan this week. The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds in the utilities and petrochemical industries increased significantly compared to last week, by 5.76 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds in the comprehensive industry decreased by about 3.49 billion yuan [20]. - **Trading Term**: The trading terms of ultra - long industrial bonds in the utilities and comprehensive industries shortened significantly this week, by 2.31 years and 0.85 years respectively compared to last week. The trading terms of ultra - long industrial bonds in the non - ferrous metals and transportation industries lengthened significantly, by 9.79 years and 5.92 years respectively [23][24]. - **Trading Price**: The trading yields of ultra - long industrial bonds in the social services and coal industries increased by 65bp and 48bp respectively compared to last week. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of ultra - long industrial bonds in the electronics industry was relatively high at 100%. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of ultra - long industrial bonds in the commerce and retail and coal industries decreased significantly this week [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the trading tracking of ultra - long credit bonds, analyzing the changes in trading volume, trading price, and low - valuation trading proportion of ultra - long credit bonds, ultra - long urban investment bonds, and ultra - long industrial bonds in the week from April 14th to April 18th, 2025, and comparing them with previous weeks [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ultra - long Credit Bonds: Volume Rise and Decline in Low - valuation Transaction Proportion - **Trading Volume**: The daily trading activity of ultra - long credit bonds increased, with an average of 3.2 daily transactions (previous value: 2.9). The trading volume of ultra - long credit bonds with a remaining maturity of 10 - 15 years increased significantly. However, the total trading volume decreased to 296 billion yuan, a 13.2% week - on - week decline, mainly due to the decrease in bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 - 10 years. Industrial bonds were more actively traded than urban investment bonds [2][11]. - **Trading Term**: The average trading term of ultra - long credit bonds decreased to 9.93 years, a 0.65 - year decline. The average trading term of ultra - long urban investment bonds increased by 0.03 years, while that of industrial bonds decreased by 0.69 years [3][13]. - **Trading Price**: The trading yield of ultra - long credit bonds rose to 2.37%, a 7 - bp increase. The trading yield of ultra - long urban investment bonds decreased by 5 bp, and that of ultra - long industrial bonds increased by 7 bp. The proportion of low - valuation transactions decreased to 46%, with a significant decline in ultra - long industrial bonds from 59% to 44%. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of bonds with a remaining maturity of 20 - 30 years decreased by about 33 percentage points [3][13]. 3.2 Ultra - long Urban Investment Bonds: Rising Volume in Shandong and Fujian, Marginal Increase in Low - valuation Transaction Proportion in Fujian - **Trading Volume**: Shandong had a high trading volume of 38.3 billion yuan. The trading volume of ultra - long urban investment bonds in Sichuan and Shaanxi decreased by 5.4 billion yuan and 2.3 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume in Shandong and Fujian increased [4][15]. - **Trading Term**: The average trading term was 9.73 years. The trading term in Shandong increased by 2.18 years, while that in Shaanxi decreased by 3.76 years [4][16]. - **Trading Price**: Zhejiang had a high trading yield of over 3%. The trading yields in Henan and Guangdong increased by 30 bp and 13 bp respectively, while those in Anhui and Shandong decreased by 99 bp and 55 bp respectively. The proportion of low - valuation transactions in Beijing decreased by 49 percentage points, while that in Fujian increased [4][16]. 3.3 Ultra - long Industrial Bonds: Rising Volume in Comprehensive and Basic Chemical Industries, Decline in Low - valuation Transaction Proportion in Machinery and Public Utilities - **Trading Volume**: The comprehensive industry had a high trading volume of 57.7 billion yuan. The trading volume in the comprehensive and basic chemical industries increased by 27.5 billion yuan and 9.5 billion yuan respectively, while that in the public utilities industry decreased by about 99.8 billion yuan [5][19]. - **Trading Term**: The trading terms of non - bank finance and real estate industries decreased by 3.98 years and 2.97 years respectively, while those of transportation and public utilities industries increased by 4.23 years and 1.39 years respectively [5][22]. - **Trading Price**: The trading yields of transportation and machinery industries increased by 83 bp and 24 bp respectively. The proportion of low - valuation transactions in steel, electronics, social services, and commercial retail industries was as high as 100%. The proportion of low - valuation transactions in machinery and public utilities industries decreased [7][22].

成交价格方面，本周天津城投债成交收益率较高，超过 3%。从变动来看，与上 周相比，本周浙江、山东超长城投债成交收益率较上周上升较大，较上周分别 上升 52bp 和 51bp，本周安徽、河南超长城投债成交收益率较上周下降幅度较 大，较上周分别下降 26bp 和 16bp。另外，江苏低估值成交占比较上周下降 59 个百分点，河南、北京等地低估值成交占比较上周上升较多。 三、超长产业债：建筑装饰、机械设备行业成交量上升，电子、基础化工行业 低估值成交占比下降 蓄势待修复 ——超长信用债交易跟踪 一、超长信用债成交量下降，低估值成交占比上升 本周（2025 年 3 月 31 日-2025 年 4 月 3 日，下同）超长信用债每日成交活跃 度有所下降，超长信用债平均每日成交笔数为 2.7 笔，前值为 2.8 笔。本周剩 余期限在 15-20 年的超长信用债每日成交笔数较上周下降较多。从品种来看， 本周城投债每日成交活跃度高于产业债。本周超长信用债成交量有所下降。本 周超长信用债成交量为 280 亿元，较上周环比下降 42.15%，成交量下降主要体 现在剩余期限在 7-10 年的超长信用债中。 1）在成交期限方面，机构久 ...