Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm's FY26Q1 performance met expectations, but the guidance for FY26Q2 fell short due to adverse impacts from memory shortages and price increases affecting downstream demand [4]. Group 1: FY26Q1 Performance - Qualcomm achieved Non-GAAP revenue of $12.252 billion in FY26Q1, slightly above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $12.196 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 5% [4]. - The QCT business generated $10.613 billion in revenue, also up 5% year-on-year, while the QTL business reported $1.592 billion, a 4% increase [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit for FY26Q1 was $3.781 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.690 billion, with Non-GAAP EPS at $3.50, above the expected $3.407 [4]. Group 2: FY26Q2 Guidance - Qualcomm's guidance for FY26Q2 indicates Non-GAAP revenue between $10.2 billion and $11 billion, below the consensus estimate of $11.16 billion [4]. - The projected Non-GAAP diluted EPS for FY26Q2 is between $2.45 and $2.65, compared to the consensus estimate of $2.874 [4]. - The guidance shortfall is primarily attributed to the negative impact of memory shortages and price increases on downstream demand [4]. Group 3: QCT Mobile Business - In FY26Q1, the mobile business revenue was $7.824 billion, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth, driven by increased shipments of Snapdragon chips [5]. - Qualcomm secured a 75% supply share for high-end smartphone chips for Samsung's upcoming series, and ByteDance's AI smartphone features Qualcomm's Snapdragon Elite chips [5]. - The company anticipates that the ongoing memory chip shortage will constrain the growth of its mobile business in the short term, with FY26Q2 mobile revenue expected to be around $6 billion [5]. Group 4: QCT IoT Business - The IoT business generated $1.688 billion in revenue in FY26Q1, a 9% year-on-year increase, mainly due to higher shipments in edge networking and consumer products [6]. - Qualcomm is expanding its presence in vertical applications, launching new products at CES 2026, including the Dragonwing Q-7790 and Q-8750 for various applications [6]. - The company introduced the Snapdragon X2 Plus chip, enhancing CPU single-core performance by 35% and NPU performance by 78%, with multiple PC products based on Snapdragon showcased at CES [7]. Group 5: QCT Automotive Business - The automotive business reported $1.101 billion in revenue for FY26Q1, a 15% year-on-year increase, driven by higher shipments of vehicles equipped with Qualcomm's smart cockpit technology [8]. - Qualcomm signed a long-term supply agreement with Volkswagen Group, expanding its supply to brands like Audi and Porsche [8]. - The company is collaborating with CARIAD and Bosch to develop autonomous driving systems, indicating progress in its smart driving initiatives [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qualcomm (QCOM.O) [6] Core Insights - Qualcomm's FY26Q1 performance met expectations, but the guidance for FY26Q2 fell short due to adverse impacts from memory shortages and price increases affecting downstream demand [1] - FY26Q1 Non-GAAP revenue was $12.252 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, with Non-GAAP net profit at $3.781 billion [1] - The guidance for FY26Q2 is projected Non-GAAP revenue of $10.2 to $11 billion, below the consensus estimate of $11.16 billion [1] Summary by Sections QCT Mobile Business - FY26Q1 mobile business revenue was $7.824 billion, up 3% year-over-year, driven by increased shipments of Snapdragon chips [2] - Qualcomm secured a 75% supply share for high-end smartphone chips for Samsung's upcoming series [2] - The guidance for FY26Q2 mobile revenue is approximately $6 billion, with expectations of growth being constrained by memory chip shortages [2] QCT IoT Business - FY26Q1 IoT revenue reached $1.688 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, primarily due to higher shipments in edge networking and consumer products [3] - The company continues to expand into vertical applications in edge networking and industrial IoT, with new products launched at CES 2026 [3] - The PC segment saw the release of the Snapdragon X2 Plus chip, enhancing performance significantly [3] QCT Automotive Business - FY26Q1 automotive revenue was $1.101 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, attributed to higher shipments of vehicles equipped with Qualcomm's smart cockpit technology [4] - Qualcomm signed a long-term supply agreement with Volkswagen Group, expanding its supply to brands like Audi and Porsche [4] - The company is collaborating with CARIAD and Bosch to develop autonomous driving systems [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts GAAP net profits of $11.5 billion, $12.5 billion, and $13 billion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with growth rates of 107.7%, 8.4%, and 4.2% [4] - The current price corresponds to FY2026-2028 P/E ratios of 14X, 13X, and 12X [4]

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm is showcasing its advancements in personal AI and physical AI at CES 2026, emphasizing the shift from cloud dependency to terminal autonomy through powerful edge computing capabilities [2][6][7]. Group 1: Personal AI Developments - Qualcomm's Snapdragon X series processors are enabling a new generation of AI PCs, demonstrating capabilities such as real-time multimodal AI content creation without latency [2][6]. - The demand for AI PCs has surged, with companies like Lenovo and ASUS reporting a 2.5 times increase in AI PC product offerings within a year [9]. - 62% of users consider "local intelligent agent invocation" a core reason for purchasing AI PCs, highlighting the importance of local processing in enhancing user experience [13]. Group 2: Physical AI Innovations - Qualcomm's advancements in physical AI are evident in the automotive sector, with over 400 million vehicles utilizing Snapdragon digital chassis solutions [19]. - The company is leading in the in-car infotainment and cockpit SoC solutions, with over 75 million vehicles adopting the Snapdragon cockpit platform [19]. - The Snapdragon 8797 platform supports multi-modal large models for cockpit and driving assistance, enhancing the in-vehicle experience [21]. Group 3: Strategic Vision and Market Trends - Qualcomm's strategy focuses on building a comprehensive ecosystem that integrates personal AI and physical AI, aiming for a seamless user experience across various devices [8][26]. - The global AI PC market penetration is expected to exceed 80% in the next three years, indicating a significant shift towards edge computing [27]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on the exponential growth in demand for edge computing capabilities, as AI evolves towards intelligent agents and embodied forms [10][11]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The Snapdragon X2 Plus platform features an 80 TOPS NPU, setting a new speed record for its class, and offers a 35% performance improvement while reducing power consumption by 43% compared to previous generations [15][29]. - Qualcomm's new processors, such as the Q-8750 and Q-7790, are designed for diverse IoT applications, enhancing the company's ability to support a wide range of smart devices [26][39]. - The Snapdragon Ride platform has been validated in over 60 countries, accumulating extensive data that enhances Qualcomm's capabilities in physical AI applications [46].