Trade Environment - The trade environment is stabilizing as US-China relations improve, with significant agreements reached during recent talks[5] - Major economies in Europe and the US are still in a phase of fiscal expansion and monetary easing, with the IMF predicting stable economic growth in developed economies[8][9] Export Growth Analysis - Global trade growth is expected to slow down due to high base effects from "export grabbing" and increased tariff rates, with a projected growth rate of 0-1% for exports in 2026[2] - Exports to the US and ASEAN may exhibit a "seesaw" effect, with significant contributions from transshipment trade to ASEAN exports this year[2] - Africa is identified as the fastest-growing export region, driven by demand for vehicles, ships, and consumer electronics[2] Economic Forecasts - The IMF forecasts that global trade volume growth will decline from approximately 3.7% in 2025 to 2.0% in 2026, with China's export volume growth expected to drop from 9.8% to 1.9%[20][21] - The US economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see slight declines in growth rates[9][8] Currency and Pricing - The RMB is anticipated to maintain a "stable yet slightly strong" trend, with export prices expected to decline marginally by around 2%[2] - The IMF predicts a decrease in global trade prices from 0.6% in 2025 to 0.1% in 2026, influenced by falling oil prices and domestic inflationary pressures[2] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include geopolitical conflicts and unexpected macroeconomic fluctuations that could impact trade dynamics[2]

今年以来，中国促进服务贸易和扩大入境游政策已取得一定成效，服务出口增速显著高于进口增速，推 动了服务贸易逆差持续收窄。 商务部公布数据显示，2025年前10个月，我国服务贸易稳步增长，服务进出口总额65844.3亿元（人民 币，下同），同比增长7.5%。其中，出口增长14.3%，进口增长2.6%；服务贸易逆差7663.7亿元，同比 减少2693.9亿元。 作为中国服务贸易的主力，前10个月知识密集型服务出口增长9.5%，进口增长2.3%，顺差同比去年扩 大1036亿元。随着我国进一步扩大免签"朋友圈"，多方利好带动了入境游市场持续扩容，旅行服务出口 高速增长。前10个月，旅行服务进出口达18125.4亿元，增长8.5%。其中，出口增长52.5%，进口增长 2.3%。 为了积极拓展绿色贸易，商务部今年10月30日发布《关于拓展绿色贸易的实施意见》提出，提升外贸企 业绿色低碳发展能力，拓展绿色低碳相关产品和技术进出口，营造绿色贸易发展良好国际环境，建立健 全绿色贸易支撑保障体系。 今年服务出口增速显著高于进口增速，推动服务贸易逆差持续收窄 于12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议，部署2026年经济工作。"坚 ...

Core Insights - China's overall trade performance in the first five months of 2025 shows a steady recovery, with total import and export value reaching 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1][3] - Exports amounted to 10.67 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.8% [1] Trade Partners - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with a trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, marking a significant growth of 9.1% [1][6] - The EU ranks second with a trade value of 2.3 trillion yuan, up by 2.9%, while the US has fallen to third place with a trade value of 1.72 trillion yuan, down by 8.1% [1][5] Export and Import Dynamics - In the first five months, exports to ASEAN reached 1.9 trillion yuan, increasing by 13.5%, while imports from ASEAN were 1.12 trillion yuan, up by 2.3% [6] - Notable growth in exports was observed towards Germany (12.3% increase), India (15.1% increase), and Africa (18.9% increase) [5][6] Product Structure and Market Opportunities - The main products exported to ASEAN include electromechanical products, textiles, steel, and chemical products, indicating a diverse demand structure [6][7] - Vietnam, as the largest trading partner within ASEAN, saw a 20.2% increase in exports from China, driven by integrated circuits and lithium-ion batteries [7] Economic Context - The ASEAN region, with a population of 686 million and a projected GDP of 3.98 trillion USD in 2024, is positioned as the fifth-largest economy globally, enhancing its significance as a trading partner for China [6][7] - The implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has facilitated trade by reducing barriers, further strengthening economic ties between China and ASEAN [6][7]