2025年，全球贸易格局深度调整，单边贸易限制、地缘政治博弈等因素持续扰动国际市场，我国外贸在 挑战中展现出强大韧性和活力。其中，中西部省份表现尤为亮眼，在全国外贸进出口增速前10的省份 中，有九席花落中西部地区。新疆、陕西、湖北、甘肃、云南等省份增速大幅领跑全国，中西部地区成 为内陆开放新高地。 同时，中西部地区经营主体的活力持续释放，中小微企业、专精特新"小巨人"企业成为外贸发展新生力 量。中国进出口银行相关负责人介绍，各分行通过"一对一"金融顾问、供应链融资、转贷款合作等方 式，为企业提供精准金融服务。例如，陕西省分行5年间支持数千户小微企业，推动普惠金融服务增量 扩面，让更多经营主体参与到外贸发展中，形成"龙头引领、小微跟进"的良好格局。四川省分行为龙头 企业建立"一企一策"服务机制，助力企业优化全球产业布局；为创新型企业提供"融资+融智"服务，帮 助企业更好地抓住市场机遇；为中欧班列(成渝)集结中心的建设和班列开行运营提供全方位金融支持， 让四川企业和产品走向国际市场。 多维赋能推动增长 中西部地区外贸能够在全球贸易变局中逆势突围，并非偶然。程婉静表示，这是资源禀赋升级、贸易格 局重塑、国家战略赋能 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's foreign trade demonstrates strong resilience and vitality amidst challenges such as unilateral trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions, with the central and western provinces showing remarkable performance in trade growth [1] Group 1: Trade Growth and Structure Optimization - The export value of China's "new three items" (electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, lithium-ion batteries) increased by 27.1% year-on-year in 2025, with the central and western regions becoming the main drivers of this growth [1] - Provinces like Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Hubei, Gansu, and Yunnan are leading the national growth rates in foreign trade, indicating that the central and western regions are emerging as new highlands for inland openness [1] - The diversification of trade partners is a key indicator of the optimization of the foreign trade structure in the central and western regions, with significant year-on-year growth in trade with Belt and Road countries [2] Group 2: Economic and Strategic Factors - The growth of foreign trade in the central and western regions is attributed to three main factors: resource endowment upgrades, trade pattern reshaping, and national strategic empowerment [3] - The central and western regions are leveraging their resource and geographical advantages to drive industrial structure transformation, with over 60% of the national power generation capacity located in these areas [3] - National strategies such as the Western Development and Central Rise initiatives are providing strong support for foreign trade growth, with policies encouraging foreign investment in these regions [4] Group 3: Logistics and Trade Platforms - The construction of cross-border logistics networks, including the China-Europe Railway Express and the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, has significantly improved the trade positioning of the central and western regions [5] - The functions of free trade zones and comprehensive bonded zones are being continuously strengthened, serving as highlands for institutional innovation and foreign trade industry aggregation [5] - The development of cross-border e-commerce platforms is enabling many small and medium-sized enterprises to reach global markets, providing crucial support for the expansion and quality improvement of foreign trade [5] Group 4: Future Opportunities and Challenges - In 2026, China's foreign trade will face both opportunities and risks, with geopolitical influences increasing external uncertainties while high-quality Belt and Road initiatives enhance global supply chain resilience [6] - The central and western regions have formed a green industry cluster represented by the "new three items," which is expected to maintain growth in foreign trade [6] - Challenges include the need to avoid homogenization in overseas markets and the existence of shortcomings in digital and service trade sectors, indicating further optimization is necessary [6][7] Group 5: Recommendations for Development - To seize new opportunities in foreign trade, the central and western regions should implement differentiated development strategies, leveraging their resource advantages and actively engaging with emerging markets [7] - Improving the business environment and enhancing "going out" services are essential, including building industry service platforms and optimizing logistics functions [7] - Strengthening international rule alignment and establishing risk warning mechanisms will help enterprises navigate the complexities of global trade [7]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：雪涛宏观笔记 AI已成为了全球贸易不可忽视的重要组成部分，中国作为全球最大的AI商品出口国，美国作为全球AI 投资的领头羊，美国AI投资能否维持高位直接影响到中国出口的景气度。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 AI投资已成为全球经济不可忽视的部分。2025年前三季度，广义AI投资拉动美国实际GDP同比增速0.8 个百分点，成为美国经济增长的重要引擎。BIS数据显示，从2022年开始AI投资在美国GDP中占比逐年 提高，截至2025年中期，IT制造和数据中心投资占美国GDP的1%，加上软件和其他设备后的比重达到 5%，已超过2000年"互联网泡沫"时期的巅峰水平。Gartner估计2025年全球AI支出为1.8万亿美元，2026 年扩张至2.5万亿美元。在AI投资热潮的带动下，IMF估计2026年全球经济增速上行至3.3%。 AI贸易也正在高速增长。WTO数据显示，2025年二季度全球AI相关商品贸易同比增长21.7%，远高于非 AI相关商品贸易4.2%的增速，AI相关商品占全球贸易规模的15%，对全球商品贸易增速的贡献率超过 4 ...

帮我 AI 贸易已经成为了全球贸易中不可忽视的重要部分。中国作为全球最大的 AI 商品出口国，美国作为全球 AI 投 资扩张的领头羊，美国 AI 投资能否维持高位决定了今年中国出口高景气度能否延续。同时，BIS 研究显示，在 此前几次投资热潮退坡时（如 90 年代互联网泡沫、2010 年前后的页岩投资），美国 GDP 增速降幅均超过 1 个百 分点，如果美国 AI 泡沫破裂，负面溢出效应或导致美国经济大幅回落进而拖累全球经济和一般贸易。 风险提示 本文对 AI 贸易商品的数据部分基于估算数据，估算方法或存在一定偏差。 AI 投资不确定性较高，AI 投资带来的 AI 贸易不确定性也在提升，关注 AI 投资变化对贸易的影响。 全球 AI 贸易政策正在发生较大变化，美国对等关税等对 AI 贸易的影响也还在延续，关注政策变化对 AI 贸易的影响。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济报告 AI 投资已成为全球经济不可忽视的部分。2025 年前三季度，广义 AI 投资拉动美国实际 GDP 同比增速 0.8 个百 分点，成为美国经济增长的重要引擎。BIS 数据显示，从 2022 年开始 AI 投资在美 ...

Economic Overview - As of February 5, 2025, all economic data for 21 cities in Guangdong has been released, with Shenzhen leading the province with a GDP of 3.87 trillion yuan [3] - The overall GDP growth rate for Guangdong is 3.9%, with Meizhou leading at 5.8%, followed by Shenzhen at 5.5% and Chaozhou at 4.7% [3] Industrial Growth - Zhanjiang leads the province in industrial added value growth at 10.7%, with Huizhou and Meizhou both at 8.6% [4] - Zhanjiang's industrial sector contributes over 40% to its economic growth, with significant increases in communication equipment and computer manufacturing [4] - Meizhou's industrial added value growth is 8.6%, with notable increases in non-ferrous metal smelting and electronic equipment manufacturing [5] Investment and Consumption - Industrial technological transformation investment in Yangjiang exceeds 60%, with several cities maintaining high investment levels in key and high-tech industries [7] - Guangzhou's retail sales of consumer goods show significant growth, particularly in furniture and communication equipment [8] - The consumption policies, such as trade-in programs, have positively impacted the consumer market across various cities [8] Foreign Trade - Shenzhen's total import and export volume reaches a record high of 4.55 trillion yuan, with exports at 2.74 trillion yuan [9] - Zhaoqing leads the province in export growth at 21.1%, with significant contributions from electromechanical products [10] - Guangzhou's foreign trade also shows strong performance, with a total volume of 1.2 trillion yuan and a 10.4% year-on-year growth [11] Agriculture - Agricultural production remains strong, with cities like Maoming and Zhanjiang exceeding 110 billion yuan in total agricultural output [13] - Zhuhai's agricultural output grows by 6.6%, leading the province, particularly in fisheries [13] - Yangjiang's agricultural output also shows positive growth, with a 6.4% increase [13]

与此同时，新业态新模式蓬勃发展，成为外贸增长新亮点。其中，跨境电商出口海外仓快速增长，数字 贸易（数据流动、电子单证）与绿色贸易（新能源、低碳产品）双轮驱动，进一步夯实了我国外贸持续 增长的基础。 亚太经济合作组织（APEC）"中国年"首场正式活动日前在广州开幕。记者从APEC海关手续分委会2026 年第一次全体会议上获悉，2025年我国与APEC其他经济体进出口总值达26.29万亿元，占同期外贸总值 的57.82%。"十四五"期间，这一数字累计达125.49万亿元，比"十三五"时期增长39.4%。 "新技术、新业态加速演进，为全球包容性增长与可持续发展带来新机遇。国际社会亟须以先进科技与 改革创新为抓手，推进治理能力变革与合作机制升级，携手应对各类挑战。"海关总署副署长赵增连表 示，中方将"建设亚太共同体，促进共同繁荣"作为APEC"中国年"的主题，并将"开放、创新、合作"确 定为三大优先领域，旨在锚定亚太共同体建设的长远目标，为贸易增长注入确定性和新动能。 去年以来，我国外贸市场布局持续优化，产业协同纵深发展，区域合作加快升级，贸易韧性显著增强。 2025年，我国对东盟、秘鲁、墨西哥等新兴经济体贸易保持高 ...

Economic Overview - As of February 5, 2025, all economic data for 21 cities in Guangdong has been released, with Shenzhen leading the province with a GDP of 3.87 trillion yuan [2] - The overall GDP growth rate for the province is 3.9%, with ten cities exceeding this rate, including Meizhou at 5.8%, Shenzhen at 5.5%, and Chaozhou at 4.7% [4] Industrial Growth - Zhanjiang leads the province in industrial added value growth at 10.7%, with Huizhou and Meizhou both at 8.6% [5] - Zhanjiang's industrial sector contributes over 40% to its economic growth, with significant increases in various industries, including a 64.5% growth in communication equipment and a 46.9% growth in printing and media replication [7] - Meizhou's industrial added value growth is 8.6%, with notable increases in non-ferrous metal smelting and processing at 114.2% and electronics manufacturing at 20.9% [8] Investment Trends - Investment in industrial upgrades in cities like Yangjiang, Chaozhou, and Meizhou has exceeded 20%, driven by large-scale equipment renewal policies [10] - Shenzhen's investment in key industries such as information technology services and scientific research has seen significant growth, with increases of 88.3% and 67.7% respectively [12] Trade and Export Performance - Shenzhen's total import and export volume reached a record high of 4.55 trillion yuan, with exports at 2.74 trillion yuan, marking an 8% increase [15] - Zhaoqing leads the province in export growth at 21.1%, with a total trade volume of 46.28 billion yuan [17] - Guangzhou's import and export volume surpassed 1.2 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 17.8%, particularly in electric vehicles and photovoltaic products [18] Agricultural Production - Agricultural production remains strong, with cities like Maoming and Zhanjiang exceeding 110 billion yuan in total agricultural output [19] - Zhuhai's agricultural output grew by 6.6%, leading the province, particularly in fisheries [21]

Group 1 - The APEC first senior officials' meeting is taking place in Guangzhou, marking the beginning of the "China Year" for APEC, which will last until October 10 [1] - By 2025, China's trade with APEC members is projected to reach 26.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 57.82% of China's total foreign trade, with a 39.4% increase during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - China's trade with emerging APEC members, including ASEAN, Latin America (Peru, Mexico), and Central and Eastern Europe, is growing rapidly, supported by the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's exports of high-tech products to APEC members are expected to reach 4.63 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, including significant increases in lithium-ion batteries, photovoltaic products, and electric vehicles [3] - Imports from APEC members are primarily in energy, agricultural products, semiconductor equipment, and precision instruments, with notable growth in machinery and high-tech products [3] Group 3 - Nearly half of China's exports to APEC members consist of intermediate goods, indicating a stable "China production - APEC assembly - global sales" supply chain, with a shift towards "R&D + manufacturing + services" [5] - The rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce exports and the dual drive of digital and green trade are emerging as new growth points [5] Group 4 - The construction of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area is providing long-term institutional guarantees for trade and investment liberalization, with China leveraging APEC to align with international high-standard trade rules [7] - Trade facilitation measures are being upgraded, including the 3.0 version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, which reduces costs through tariff concessions and rule coordination [7] Group 5 - APEC "China Year" is expected to not only boost short-term trade growth but also facilitate the transformation of China's foreign trade from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement," enhancing its core position in the Asia-Pacific industrial chain [8]

Group 1 - The APEC first senior officials' meeting is taking place in Guangzhou, marking the beginning of the "China Year" for APEC, which will last until October 10 [1] - In the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's trade with other APEC members has seen a nearly 40% increase, with total imports and exports reaching 26.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 57.82% of China's total foreign trade [2] - By 2025, China is expanding its market space with APEC members, focusing on new trade opportunities with emerging members such as ASEAN, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe [4] Group 2 - China's exports of high-tech products to APEC members reached 4.63 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth, with significant increases in lithium-ion batteries, photovoltaic products, and electric vehicles [5] - Imports from APEC members are primarily in energy, agricultural products, semiconductor equipment, and precision instruments, with notable growth in imports of electromechanical products and high-tech products [7] - Nearly half of China's exports to APEC members consist of intermediate goods, indicating a stable "China production - APEC assembly - global sales" supply chain [9] Group 3 - Cross-border e-commerce exports and digital trade are rapidly growing, driven by data flow and green trade initiatives, becoming new growth points for China's trade with APEC members [11] - The construction of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area is providing long-term institutional guarantees for trade and investment liberalization, enhancing the adaptability of foreign trade rules [12] - The "China Year" of APEC is expected to facilitate a transition in China's foreign trade from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement," strengthening its core position in the Asia-Pacific industrial chain [14]

Group 1 - The APEC first senior officials' meeting is taking place in Guangzhou, marking the beginning of the "China Year" for APEC, which will last until October 10 [1] - In 2025, China's trade with other APEC members is projected to reach 26.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 57.82% of China's total foreign trade [2] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's trade with APEC members has grown by 39.4%, totaling 125.49 trillion yuan [2] Group 2 - China is expanding its market space with APEC members, particularly in emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road [4] - The growth of land and air transport has reduced reliance on maritime shipping, enhancing trade resilience [4] - High-tech products are becoming a key component of trade, with exports to APEC members reaching 4.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [5] Group 3 - Imports from APEC members primarily consist of energy, agricultural products, semiconductor equipment, and precision instruments, with significant growth in imports of electromechanical products and high-tech goods [7] - Nearly half of China's exports to APEC members are intermediate goods, indicating a solid "China production - APEC assembly - global sales" supply chain [9] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is experiencing rapid growth, driven by digital and green trade initiatives [11] Group 4 - The construction of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area is providing long-term institutional guarantees for trade and investment liberalization [12] - Trade facilitation measures are being upgraded, including the implementation of the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, which reduces costs through tariff concessions and rule coordination [12] - The APEC "China Year" is expected to enhance China's core position in the Asia-Pacific industrial chain and contribute to global economic governance [14]