有色金属ETF(512400)，场外联接(A类：004432；C类：004433)。 中信建投证券指出，今年的宏观浪潮推升金价暴涨，趋势演绎之下这些宏观浪潮将会在2026年将推升 铜。关于新旧秩序重构，2025年"旧秩序坍塌"（金价拉升），2026年铜将定价新秩序构建（铜价拉 升）。关税2.0时代引发的全球经贸秩序重塑，将会推动供应链体系加速重构，铜作为工业制造核心基 础原料，其需求场景随产业链转移同步拓展。关于大国博弈，2025年大国博弈聚焦在关税冲击（金价拉 升），2026年大国博弈将朝着科技和安全迈进（铜价拉升）。在大国竞争背景下，AI产业浪潮催生的 新动能需求将会持续释放，AI数据中心等领域将带来铜消费增长。关于传统信用部门的"喘气"，2025年 大国聚焦关税博弈（金价拉升），2026年大国将重回内需平稳，中美都如是（铜价拉升）。货币宽松政 策逐步传导至传统工业板块，制造业景气度改善将直接联动铜的旧动能需求板块回暖，巩固铜需求基本 盘。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属指数，中证申万有色金属指数从沪深市场申万有色金 属及非金属材料行业中选取50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映沪 ...

Group 1 - The total scale of public funds in China has reached a historic high of 37.02 trillion yuan, marking the first time it has surpassed this threshold, with continuous growth over the past eight months [1] - The macroeconomic trends are expected to drive a significant increase in copper prices by 2026, influenced by the restructuring of global trade orders and the demand from AI-related industries [1] Group 2 - Several banks, including Beijing Bank and Shanghai Bank, have announced the redemption of preferred shares, with a total redemption scale of 458 billion yuan in December [2] - The lithium iron phosphate industry is facing challenges due to rising raw material prices and reduced production plans, with companies collectively planning to cut production by 35% to 50% [2] Group 3 - SoftBank is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire DigitalBridge Group, focusing on investments in data centers as part of its strategy to capitalize on the AI-driven digital infrastructure boom [3] - Meta has announced the acquisition of AI company Manus for a deal potentially worth several billion dollars, marking its third-largest acquisition to date [4] Group 4 - The restructuring plan for 38 companies under Suning has been approved, with total debts amounting to 238.73 billion yuan [5] - BYD has denied rumors regarding the launch of flying cars, clarifying that there are no such plans [5] Group 5 - The second-hand market for Labubu products has seen significant price drops, with some items falling below their original prices [6] - Fujian Ningde Rural Commercial Bank has been fined 1.25 million yuan for multiple loan business violations [6] Group 6 - Shenzhen Edge Medical is seeking to raise 1.2 billion HKD through an IPO in Hong Kong, with shares expected to start trading on January 8 [7] - Shanghai Iluvatar Corex Semiconductor is also applying for an IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to issue 25.4 million shares [7] Group 7 - *ST Panda has been investigated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations [10] - Oriental Fashion's stock continues to face risk warnings due to negative audit opinions and uncertainty regarding its ability to continue as a going concern [11] Group 8 - The ICE BofA MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, is on track for its largest annual decline since 2009, reflecting reduced recession risks due to Federal Reserve rate cuts [12] - U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with notable drops in major tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia [12] Group 9 - Silver prices experienced a significant drop after briefly surpassing $80, while gold also saw a sharp decline, nearing $4,300 [13]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信建投证券研究 文|周君芝 陈怡 供需平衡表能够有效解释并指明铜价趋势，但不能解答赔率问题。2026年铜的赔率答案藏在"铜金比"之 中。 虽然今年铜金均新高，但铜金比却历史新低。之所以用铜金比判断2026年铜的赔率，并非简单地看铜金 比朝历史均值方向修复，因为这两年历史经验法失效，例如对全球通胀的判断，又例如中国地产。 之所以将铜金比作为2026年铜赔率依据，因为2025年金超涨，超70%的同比涨幅，已是1960s以来历史 次高点。 催化今年史诗级别行情的金价上涨，背后三大宏观叙事，恰好成为推升明年铜价的因素。 哪三大宏观趋势？牺牲独立性换取的美联储货币宽松、科技催生新产业周期、贸易战全球供应链重塑。 2025年市场见证金价一再破新高，2026年同样的宏观叙事会推升铜迎来历史级别上涨。 2025年铜价已创下历史新高，回答"历史高位后能否更高"问题，即在胜率较高的市场预期之下，2026年 铜是否还有赔率？ 一、展望2026年铜价，先看2025年极致的铜、金和铜金比 回溯2001年以来的市场表现，可以发现今年铜金表现呈现两个不同寻常的特征 ...

(本文来自第一财经) 中信建投研报指出，今年的宏观浪潮推升金价暴涨，趋势演绎之下这些宏观浪潮将会在2026年将推升 铜。关于新旧秩序重构，2025年"旧秩序坍塌"（金价拉升），2026年铜将定价新秩序构建（铜价拉 升）。关税2.0时代引发的全球经贸秩序重塑，将会推动供应链体系加速重构，铜作为工业制造核心基 础原料，其需求场景随产业链转移同步拓展。关于大国博弈，2025年大国博弈聚焦在关税冲击（金价拉 升），2026年大国博弈将朝着科技和安全迈进（铜价拉升）。在大国竞争背景下，AI产业浪潮催生的 新动能需求将会持续释放，AI数据中心等领域将带来铜消费增长。关于传统信用部门的"喘气"，2025年 大国聚焦关税博弈（金价拉升），2026年大国将重回内需平稳，中美都如是（铜价拉升）。货币宽松政 策逐步传导至传统工业板块，制造业景气度改善将直接联动铜的旧动能需求板块回暖，巩固铜需求基本 盘。 ...

中信建投宏观首席周君芝最近研究指出，今年的宏观浪潮推升金价暴涨，趋势演绎之下这些宏观浪潮将 会在2026年将推升铜。关于新旧秩序重构，2025年"旧秩序坍塌"（金价拉升），2026年铜将定价新秩序 构建（铜价拉升）。关税2.0时代引发的全球经贸秩序重塑，将会推动供应链体系加速重构，铜作为工 业制造核心基础原料，其需求场景随产业链转移同步拓展。关于大国博弈，2025年大国博弈聚焦在关税 冲击（金价拉升），2026年大国博弈将朝着科技和安全迈进（铜价拉升）。在大国竞争背景下，AI产 业浪潮催生的新动能需求将会持续释放，AI 数据中心等领域将带来铜消费增长。关于传统信用部门 的"喘气"，2025年大国聚焦关税博弈（金价拉升），2026年大国将重回内需平稳，中美都如是（铜价拉 升）。货币宽松政策逐步传导至传统工业板块，制造业景气度改善将直接联动铜的旧动能需求板块回 暖，巩固铜需求基本盘。 ...

盘前要闻 1、美结束上届政府针对中国芯片调查 未来18个月不对中国芯片加征额外关税 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 3、央行：要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会召开。会议认为，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策， 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。会议指出，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融 支持。用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，维护资本市场稳定。 4、八部门发文！关于金融支持加快西部陆海新通道建设，跨境支付迎风口 据悉，美国政府宣布，将在2027年对中国芯片加征关税，结束了上届拜登政府发起的针对中国芯片的贸 易调查。美媒分析称，尽管美国政府称中国在芯片产业中的做法"损害美国利益"，但最终决定至少在18 个月内不对中国芯片加征额外关税。市场分析认为，暂缓加征新关税是美政府寻求稳定中美关系的新信 号。 2、限购再放松，北京又出楼市政策"组合拳"！专家预计多地或跟进类似政策 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 12月24日，北京市住房和城乡建设委员会等4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关 ...

Trade Environment - The trade environment is stabilizing as US-China relations improve, with significant agreements reached during recent talks[5] - Major economies in Europe and the US are still in a phase of fiscal expansion and monetary easing, with the IMF predicting stable economic growth in developed economies[8][9] Export Growth Analysis - Global trade growth is expected to slow down due to high base effects from "export grabbing" and increased tariff rates, with a projected growth rate of 0-1% for exports in 2026[2] - Exports to the US and ASEAN may exhibit a "seesaw" effect, with significant contributions from transshipment trade to ASEAN exports this year[2] - Africa is identified as the fastest-growing export region, driven by demand for vehicles, ships, and consumer electronics[2] Economic Forecasts - The IMF forecasts that global trade volume growth will decline from approximately 3.7% in 2025 to 2.0% in 2026, with China's export volume growth expected to drop from 9.8% to 1.9%[20][21] - The US economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see slight declines in growth rates[9][8] Currency and Pricing - The RMB is anticipated to maintain a "stable yet slightly strong" trend, with export prices expected to decline marginally by around 2%[2] - The IMF predicts a decrease in global trade prices from 0.6% in 2025 to 0.1% in 2026, influenced by falling oil prices and domestic inflationary pressures[2] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include geopolitical conflicts and unexpected macroeconomic fluctuations that could impact trade dynamics[2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of various asset classes in the first three quarters of the year and explores investment opportunities for the fourth quarter, emphasizing the importance of a balanced asset allocation strategy amid market uncertainties [1][2]. Equity Assets - Multiple institutions express optimism about the performance of equity assets in the fourth quarter, citing favorable global conditions such as moderate inflation, easing monetary policies, and robust corporate earnings as supportive factors for equity growth [3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to benefit emerging market equities, with historical trends indicating that emerging markets typically outperform developed markets during periods of a weakening dollar [3]. - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a rebound due to low valuations and sensitivity to foreign capital flows, while A-shares are supported by policies aimed at stabilizing earnings and promoting technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [3]. Gold Investment - Despite recent adjustments in gold prices, the fundamental logic supporting gold as a hedge against sovereign debt risks, inflation, and geopolitical events remains intact [5][6]. - The recent price corrections are attributed to profit-taking after significant gains, but long-term support for gold is expected from the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and ongoing demand from central banks and investors [6][7]. - The weakening dollar is seen as a factor that could enhance gold's price potential, with gold being viewed as a strong investment choice amid global trade uncertainties [7]. Commodity Focus - Institutions are also paying attention to commodities like aluminum and coal, with low global inventories and increased demand due to inflationary pressures expected to create opportunities in these sectors [8]. - The upcoming winter heating demand is projected to support coal prices, making it an attractive area for investment [8]. Balanced Strategy Consensus - A consensus among institutions suggests adopting a balanced strategy for asset allocation in the fourth quarter, combining equities, bonds, and commodities to mitigate risks and seize opportunities in a complex market environment [9]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of monitoring the fundamentals and structural opportunities in equity markets while utilizing defensive assets like bonds and gold to hedge against risks [9][10]. - A "core + satellite" approach is recommended, focusing on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold as core holdings, while exploring opportunities in industrial metals as satellite investments [10].

Group 1 - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of HKD 62.88 billion on September 18, with Meituan, Alibaba, and Pop Mart receiving net inflows of HKD 14.12 billion, HKD 12.1 billion, and HKD 12.07 billion respectively [1] - Year-to-date, southbound funds have accumulated a net purchase of HKD 1,099.89 billion, significantly exceeding the total net purchase amount for the entire previous year [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Technology 50 ETF (159750) saw a net inflow of HKD 65.32 million, reaching a total size of HKD 1.177 billion, with both the size and margin financing hitting new highs since its listing [1] Group 2 - According to Zheshang Securities, the current economic data from the U.S. suggests that the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cuts are more preventive in nature [1] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to provide marginal benefits to the performance of Hong Kong technology stocks [1] - As of September 16, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Technology Index is approximately 23 times, which is at the 32nd percentile since July 2020, indicating a potential for growth driven by the AI industry rather than mere valuation recovery [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the backtest of the predictive growth factor shows no significant excess returns before 2022, with a notable differentiation occurring in 2022, where the revenue and net profit growth group (0-15%) performed the best since then, attributed to a market style shift towards value investing due to macroeconomic pressures and declining market risk appetite [1][14]. - The report highlights the introduction of the PEG factor to optimize the investment portfolio, which measures the relationship between valuation and growth potential, suggesting that high-growth companies should have a higher PEG valuation level compared to slower-growing companies [2][21]. - The PEG (1-3) factor was found to be most effective in the revenue and net profit growth group (50%+), with the cumulative return for the revenue growth (50%+) PEG (1-3) portfolio reaching 275.45% and the net profit growth (50%+) PEG (1-3) portfolio achieving 296.87% over the period from July 1, 2014, to July 25, 2025 [3][50]. Group 2 - The report discusses the historical performance of growth and value styles in the A-share market, noting a cyclical rotation approximately every four years, with growth style underperforming since 2022 due to economic pressures and liquidity tightening [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the backtest results based on revenue growth, categorizing companies into four groups based on their predicted revenue growth rates, with the 0-15% growth group showing the best performance since 2022 [9][14]. - The report also analyzes net profit growth, indicating that the net profit growth (0-15%) group similarly outperformed in the same period, reflecting a consistent trend across both revenue and net profit growth metrics [15][19]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting PEG valuation levels based on historical context and market conditions, with a recommendation that a PEG below 1.0 is considered a reasonable valuation standard [20][21]. - The backtest results for different revenue growth groups show that the 0-15% revenue growth group performed best with a PEG (0-1) range, achieving a cumulative return of 249.25% [24][27]. - The report concludes that the PEG (1-3) factor is particularly effective for high-growth companies, with significant excess returns observed in both revenue and net profit growth groups exceeding 50% [35][46].