Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the context of the sudden Middle - East situation, the market has taken a sharp turn. Chemical products have shifted from a weak - state to a shortage expectation. Caution should be exercised when short - selling chemical products due to the risk of the Iran issue spreading beyond expectations. If the situation remains tense, the far - month contracts may experience a catch - up increase, and more uncertainties will be introduced. In the short term, a bullish strategy is recommended for the chemical sector [2][4] - The market is currently facing two major themes: the short - to - medium - term Middle - East situation leading to price increases in crude oil and chemical products, inflation expectations, and potential economic recession; and the long - term domestic anti - involution policy. Short - to - medium - term focus should be on the Middle - East situation, while long - term efforts should be made to implement the anti - involution policy [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Market Viewpoint Summary (03.02 - 03.06) - The market has centered around the Middle - East Iran war, with price movements in crude oil, fuel oil, styrene, etc., and has affected downstream chemical products like caustic soda, PVC, plastic, and PTA, leading to a significant rise in the entire chemical sector. If the Middle - East situation persists for 4 weeks, global crude oil prices may exceed $120 and even approach $150 [3] - Due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices, inflation expectations have increased, the pace of interest rate cuts has been disrupted, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased. Precious metals are under short - term pressure, while silver remains bullish in the long - term due to factors such as AI and photovoltaic applications [3] - For agricultural products, global soybean transportation has been affected by shipping disruptions and rising freight costs, leading to an expected price increase in domestic soybean meal. However, in the long - term, global soybean supply is sufficient, and with the expected anti - involution in the domestic pig industry, the demand side may decline, limiting the long - term upward potential of soybean meal [3] - In the chemical sector, the tense Middle - East situation has reversed the supply - demand structure of the entire upstream - downstream chemical industry chain. If the problem is not resolved in the short - term, it may further spread to downstream chemical products and cause more production shutdowns or capacity reductions. The short - term bullish pattern of the chemical sector remains unchanged [3] - In the black sector, the overall demand remains weak. Except for the implementation of anti - involution policies, the weak pattern of the black sector cannot be changed for now [3] Market Capital Flows - The total capital flow is 3.627 billion. Capital flows for different sectors are as follows: - 3.756 billion for precious metals, - 4.674 billion for non - ferrous metals, 0.974 billion for black metals, 3.695 billion for energy, 3.689 billion for chemicals, 2.094 billion for feed and breeding, 2.858 billion for oils and fats, and - 0.073 billion for soft commodities. The corresponding percentage changes are 6.5%, - 19.4%, - 30.9%, 21.7%, 100.0%, 91.1%, 76.3%, 63.4%, and - 2.9% respectively [8] Weekly Data of Different Sectors - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals**: Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, including iron ore, steel products, and non - ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, etc. For example, iron ore has a price percentile of 18.4%, an inventory percentile of 100.0%, and an annualized basis of - 5.8% [8] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Similar data are presented for energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For instance, fuel oil has a price percentile of 63.5%, an inventory percentile of 40.8%, and an annualized basis of 64.0% [10] - **Agricultural Products**: Data for agricultural products like soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. are given. For example, soybean meal has a price percentile of 10.9%, an inventory percentile of 100.0%, and an annualized basis of 31.3% [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As the non-ferrous and precious metal sectors have undergone significant and concentrated downward adjustments to fully release risks, market trends in other sectors may follow, and funds will seek new thematic market trends. The anti-involution theme has many related varieties, low valuations, a certain safety margin, and sufficient volume to accommodate funds flowing out of non-ferrous and precious metals, which is worthy of attention. The national policy is determined to rectify involution-style competition and adjust the dynamic adjustment ability of the supply side. It is believed that the anti-involution theme may be inevitable in the 2026 market [2][5]. - The strength and weakness structure of the commodity market has changed significantly in recent weeks. Funds have flowed out significantly from the non-ferrous and precious metal sectors, while the chemical sector has seen continuous capital inflows, indicating a possible change in the theme of the market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends of Each Sector - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver have fallen sharply in recent trading days. After a large increase in precious metals, there is a large amount of profit-taking. Once there are signs of adjustment, there may be a stampede in selling, with continuous capital outflows and a possible decline in volatility [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall valuation of oils and fats is relatively low, and the price of US soybeans is below the cost line, with limited downside. However, the demand for the feed end lacks strong logical support, and oils and fats are slightly stronger than soybean meal [4]. - **Chemical Industry**: In 2026, the chemical industry will generally operate within the framework of anti-involution, with national policies emphasizing the supply-demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and PVC has seen continuous growth. The valuation of chemical products has reached the extreme [4]. - **Black Sector**: Steel is one of the key varieties for anti-involution, and the downside of coal is also limited. The coal supply guarantee market is approaching the end. In terms of market rhythm, low-valuation varieties may absorb funds from the non-ferrous sector [4]. 3.2 Capital Flows of Each Sector (in billions) | Sector | Capital Flow | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Total | 80.51 | 14.3 | | Precious Metals | 20.37 | 20.9 | | Non-ferrous Metals | -29.71 | -26.3 | | Black Sector | -10.17 | -22.7 | | Energy | 21.93 | 100.0 | | Chemical Industry | -9.79 | -24.2 | | Feed and Breeding | -3.87 | -14.1 | | Oils and Fats | 21.73 | 48.2 | | Soft Commodities | -13.58 | -81.6 | [9] 3.3 Weekly Data of Each Sector - **Black and Non-ferrous Metals**: Data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis for various varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and gold are provided [9]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis for various varieties such as fuel oil, low-sulfur oil, and asphalt are provided [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: Data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis for various varieties such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil are provided [12].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - demand environment is weak, and some varieties with previously high industrial profits have a need for catch - up declines. However, overall valuations are low, so there is little point in chasing short positions for most varieties. Waiting may be the best choice. The decline process can test fundamentals, and only varieties with real fundamental improvements can show long - lasting resistance during the overall market decline. Attention can be paid to varieties with a continuous divergence structure and those that increase positions, volume, and resist decline during the fall [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Weekly Market Viewpoint Summary - The market is centered around several themes: the US's intention to sanction Russia has led to a rebound in the crude oil market; the China - US trade negotiation has been settled with a one - year suspension of some measures; the implementation of Indonesia's B50 has encountered obstacles, causing palm oil prices to weaken. Crude oil's medium - to - long - term supply and demand remain weak, but with a low valuation, it is regarded as oscillating. China will purchase some US soybeans, providing short - term support, but the rebound space depends on the uncertainty of South American supply. The soybean - palm oil spread has continuously rebounded and significantly repaired. The high cost of promoting biodiesel at current palm oil prices has left the Indonesian government with no solutions, leading to an obvious decline in palm oil prices. The recent weakness of methanol can be seen as a catch - up decline due to its previously high production profit. In a weak macro - demand environment, high industrial profits are unlikely to last, and a valuation decline is likely. The "Zhui Feng 1" product recommended short - selling palm oil and recently exited the position according to the rules, mainly because of the palm oil's fundamental logic. Instead of relying on frequent market predictions, strategies should be used. The "Zhui Feng 1" and "Zhui Feng 2" consulting products can be subscribed to via [Nanhua Futures App - Selected Research Reports - Strategy Research Selection], and both have free trials [4]. 3.2. Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital is 15.604 billion. Among them, precious metals had an outflow of 2.667 billion (-33.0%), non - ferrous metals had an inflow of 2.116 billion (35.8%), black metals had an outflow of 481 million (-10.7%), energy had an outflow of 341 million (-22.8%), chemicals had an inflow of 320 million (9.9%), feed and breeding had an inflow of 54 million (2.6%), oils and fats had an outflow of 405 million (-9.0%), and soft commodities had an inflow of 4 million (0.2%) [8]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Data**: Data on price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and copper are provided [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: Similar data for energy and chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt are presented [10]. - **Agricultural Products Weekly Data**: Data on agricultural product varieties including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil are given [11]. 3.3. Graphs - Graphs showing the capital flow of black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, other chemical varieties, energy varieties, oils and fats varieties, agricultural and sideline varieties, and non - ferrous metal plate varieties are included, with data sources from WIND and Nanhua Research [12][14][17][21][22][23][27].