2026年展望：钨价上涨驱动刀具行业格局改善，机床存在结构性机会 钨是数控刀具核心原材料(硬质合金刀具含钨量超80%)，2025年以来，钨精矿价格持续走高，对刀具公 司的影响有明显分化，头部企业凭借调价、库存等优势实现业绩增长，而中小公司则面临成本压力甚至 减产停工。国内刀具行业市场集中度低，格局分散，钨涨价正在加速刀具行业洗牌，头部企业有望持续 提升市占率。此外，人形机器人等新兴赛道也有望拉动刀具行业需求。 金切机床订单增速放缓。国内总体有效需求不足的问题仍存在，今年固定资产投资及主要用户领域的投 资增速回落，制造业的产能利用率年度内始终不足75%，因此机床的整体需求偏弱。但机床下游应用广 泛，仍存在结构性增长机会。因此，建议重点关注高端装备制造业全产业链自主可控、人工智能、具身 机器人、航空航天、低空经济等新兴领域带来的结构性机会，抓住这些下游发展机遇的机床企业有望受 益。 风险提示：原材料价格大幅上涨风险、人才流失风险、下游制造业复苏不及预期风险。 智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，机床刀具行业总需求受制造业整体景气度影响较大，主要宏 观指标显示今年制造业复苏程度偏弱，但存在结构性景气方向。预计2 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 12 月 25 日 钨价上涨驱动刀具格局改善，机床存在结构性机会 通用设备行业 2026 年度策略报告 中游制造/机械 机床工具行业需求与制造业景气度高度相关，2025 年，总体需求偏弱，股价走 势跑输机械行业指数；但微观上看，行业上市公司业绩持续改善，其中刀具公 司率先出现利润拐点。2026 年，钨价上涨有望驱动刀具行业格局优化，且核心 公司业绩已经出现拐点，基本面持续向好；机床仍存在新兴行业带来的结构性 机会。建议重点关注：（1）刀具：欧科亿、华锐精密；（2）机床：海天精工、 纽威数控。 ❑ 2025 年回顾：行业需求偏弱，股价跑输机械行业指数。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 476 | 9.2 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4852.7 | 4.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 4191.8 | 4.3 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 7.5 29.6 40.4 相对表现 3.3 10.9 24.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is experiencing good year-on-year growth in 2025, with strong guidance in the metal cutting machine and injection molding machine markets. Injection molding machine orders are increasing month by month, with Haitian International achieving a 30% year-on-year growth in June, and expected to maintain good growth in July. Southeast Asia and South Asia are showing significant growth [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - The acceleration of overseas factory establishment is driven by global reciprocal tariffs and the need for supply chain diversification. There is a noticeable demand from U.S. supermarkets, with increased tax differentials, labor cost advantages, and the need for local employee training boosting light industry consumption and manufacturing equipment demand [1][4] - The overseas market for engineering machinery is segmented into developed countries, resource-driven regions, and emerging markets. In Q2, excavator exports increased by over 20% year-on-year, with significant order increases in emerging markets like Indonesia, and stable trends in the Middle East, Africa, and Eastern Europe, linked to local manufacturing and new energy industries [1][5] Investment Directions - The investment direction for the mechanical industry in 2025 follows an overseas expansion theme, focusing on three areas: companies benefiting from capital expenditures in computing power chains (e.g., Yingliu, Maimi, Binglun), oil and gas sector growth (e.g., Jerry, Fosda, Nuwei), and niche products like high-pressure cleaners and small generator sets [1][6] Product Performance - Key products performing well in the current overseas market include metal cutting machines, injection molding machines, industrial robots, and lasers. Injection molding machine orders are showing a significant upward trend, with a 30% year-on-year growth in June. Excavators are also in high demand in emerging markets like Indonesia, the Middle East, and Africa, with notable order increases since the second half of 2024 [1][7] Impact of Overseas Market Layout - The layout of overseas markets has a positive impact on Chinese companies with strong global competitiveness. These companies benefit from optimizing overseas channels and competitive landscapes, particularly in the injection molding and forklift sectors. The engineering machinery sector is also influenced by overseas factory establishment and rising local wages, driving overall capital expenditures [1][8] U.S.-China Tariff Context - In the context of U.S.-China tariffs, some companies have seen their competitive strength improve, with Juxing being a notable example. As of May this year, the U.S. overall tax rate was approximately 8%, which is a 5 percentage point increase from normal levels. However, the impact of tariffs on rigid consumer goods demand remains minimal [1][9] U.S. Real Estate Market Policies - U.S. real estate market policies, including potential interest rate cuts and capital gains tax reductions, positively affect the transaction volume of second-hand houses, thereby boosting related industries. This policy expectation benefits various products, including those from companies like Quanfang and Lvtian. Additionally, new U.S.-China negotiations may lead to tariff reductions, providing significant elasticity for the mechanical industry [1][11] Macroeconomic Data Influence - Current macroeconomic data, including customs data and other macro and mid-level data, reflect terminal prosperity and provide comprehensive information for investors. Interested investors can communicate with the team for further detailed data interpretation and specialized reports [1][12]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 4.35% last week, underperforming the overall market by 3.28 percentage points [4] - The biopharmaceutical, chemical pharmaceutical, and raw material pharmaceutical industries saw declines of 6.7%, 5.7%, and 4.5% respectively [4] - The market outlook indicates a focus on next-generation weight loss products driven by GLP-1 targets, with domestic innovative drugs expected to realize value in this market [4] - The adjustment of medical insurance and commercial insurance directories is anticipated to expand the domestic innovative drug market [4] - The pharmaceutical industry is entering a new growth cycle driven by fundamentals and innovation, with Biotech stocks recovering from previous declines [4][5] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The domestic innovative drug industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, shifting from capital-driven to profit-driven trends, presenting opportunities for both performance and valuation recovery [5] - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: innovation-driven opportunities and recovery-driven opportunities [6] - Recommended stocks include Huadong Medicine and Aosaikang for innovation, and Changchun Gaoxin, China Resources Double Crane, and Weixin Kang for recovery [6] Group 3: Electronic Industry - The electronic sector saw a slight increase of 0.95% last week, with semiconductors and consumer electronics also showing modest gains [9] - The valuation metrics for the electronic sector indicate a PE of 49.86X and a PB of 3.41X, reflecting a slight decrease from previous levels [10] - The demand for AI infrastructure is driving growth in semiconductor hardware, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Cambrian, Chipone, and Aojie Technology [15] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor index showed a slight increase of 0.09% amidst market fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions and domestic policy expectations [21] - Significant price increases were noted in DDR4 memory, with some products experiencing over 75% price hikes [22] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the semiconductor sector, highlighting opportunities in companies benefiting from AI demand and domestic manufacturing recovery [25] Group 5: Machinery Industry - The production of metal cutting machine tools and industrial robots showed a slowdown in growth, with a 6.3% increase in May for machine tools [27] - The engineering machinery sector displayed mixed results, with some categories like forklifts performing well while others faced declines [28] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the machinery sector, suggesting a focus on companies benefiting from domestic demand recovery and export growth [29]