10月9日，商务部公布对境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决定。 米及以下逻辑芯片或者256层及以上存储芯片，以及制造上述制和 者研发具有潜在军事用途的人工智能的出口申请，逐案审批。资l 端工艺中关键部件（如刻蚀机、沉积设备）和先进封装材料核心 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 | | 大地熊 | 43.43 | 烧结铰铁硼永磁材料毛 坯产量4560吨 | 公司已顺 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 磁材 | 银河磁体 | 78.11 | 稀土永磁产能3万吨 | 公司为粘 | | | 宁波韵升 | 163.5 | 铵铁硼坯料产能2.1万 吨/年 | 公司是国t 早拥有住2 | | | 正海磁材 | 164 | 稀土永磁产能3万吨,预 计2026年前达到3.6万吨 | 公司稀土j | | | 中科三环 | 180.2 | 烧结铂铁硼产能为2.5万 置 | 公司是是[ | | | 金力永磁 | 446.5 | 稀土永磁产能达3.8万吨 公司稀土j | | 稀土磁材上市公司相关产能 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 | 分类 | 股票名称 | 流通市值 | 稀土矿/氧 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong opening after the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.32% to surpass 3900 points, and total market turnover reaching 26,723.32 billion yuan, an increase of 4,747.74 billion yuan from the previous day [13][22]. Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks faced a downturn, led by SMIC, which saw a decline after a strong performance during the holiday period. Goldman Sachs raised the target price for SMIC to 117 HKD (211 RMB) and maintained a "buy" rating, citing continued benefits from AI-related demand [6][3]. - The financing and margin trading ratio for SMIC and several other stocks was adjusted to zero by multiple brokerages, limiting their use as collateral for financing [8]. U.S.-China Semiconductor Tensions - A report from the U.S. House of Representatives highlighted vulnerabilities in semiconductor export controls, revealing that Chinese customers are projected to spend 38 billion USD on equipment from U.S. and allied manufacturers in 2024, a 66% increase from 2022 [10]. Rare Earth and Lithium Battery Export Controls - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced new export controls on rare earth materials and lithium battery components, effective from November 8, 2025. This includes restrictions on certain technologies and equipment related to rare earth production [11][19]. Gold Market - Gold prices surged during the holiday, exceeding 4000 USD per ounce, influenced by U.S. government shutdown concerns. The main gold futures contract rose 4.43%, surpassing 900 RMB per gram. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold prices could reach 4900 USD per ounce by 2026 [13]. Investment Trends - The domestic nuclear fusion sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Hanhua Welding and China Nuclear Technology hitting their daily limits. This follows reports of breakthroughs in nuclear fusion technology [14]. - The rare earth sector also experienced a rally, with stocks like Northern Rare Earth reaching their daily limit due to the new export controls [14]. Capital Flow - The net inflow of capital into the market was 71.849 billion yuan, with the non-ferrous metals sector receiving the largest inflow. Key stocks attracting investment included ZTE Corporation and Northern Rare Earth [22].

智通财经APP获悉，湘财证券发布研报称，2025H1有色行业利润向上游集中，有色板块营收平稳但业 绩大幅增长，盈利能力持续提升，板块现金流改善明显。细分板块来看，2025上半年，铜板块利润增速 显著高于收入，贵金属板块营收及利润大幅增长，稀土板块盈利能力明显修复，钨板块盈利能力平稳抬 升铜板块。贵金属板块方面，在美联储降息预期升温及中长期降息周期下、美债压力加大导致美元走弱 趋势加强及央行储备多元化趋势驱动黄金储备中长期提升背景下，黄金价格有望长期看涨。 湘财证券主要观点如下： 贵金属及小金属板块业绩表现优异。行业层面来看，2025年上半年有色行业累计收入增速逐月收窄，但 上游矿采选业收入增幅仍较2024年有所提升。2025年上半年有色矿采选业营业利润增速明显高于冶炼及 加工业，利润向上游集中。上市公司层面来看，2025H1有色板块营收平稳增长，业绩大幅提升，有色 行业上市公司2025H1实现营业收入1.82万亿元，同比增长6.59%；实现归母净利润953.63亿元，同比增 长35.94%。 2025H1铜板块利润增长显著高于收入增长，但营收及利润增速边际均收窄。收入端来看，2025H1铜板 块实现营收923 ...

Macro Strategy - The LPR remained unchanged in September, with the 1-year and 5-year rates at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively, reflecting a stable monetary policy in China [3] - A-shares experienced a high-level fluctuation with the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.06% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.96% during the week of September 22-26, 2025, driven by positive market sentiment and expectations of favorable policies [4] Industry Overview - The semiconductor and wind power equipment sectors showed strong performance with weekly increases of 7.64% and 6.00% respectively, while the tourism and hotel sectors faced declines of -11.65% and -8.38% [6] - The communication equipment and components sectors have seen cumulative gains of 95.45% and 91.96% respectively since the beginning of 2025 [6] North Exchange Market - As of September 26, 2025, the North Exchange had 277 listed stocks, with an average total market value of 883.56 billion, a decrease of 4.14% from the previous week [9] - The liquidity in the North Exchange decreased, with average trading volume dropping by 20.67% to 9.10 billion shares [11] New Materials Industry - The rare earth magnetic materials sector declined by 1.54% this week, underperforming the benchmark [15] - Prices for rare earth minerals continued to adjust, with mixed carbonated rare earth ore prices falling by 2.63% to 3.57% [16] Medical Consumables Industry - Aibo Medical's extended depth of focus intraocular lens received approval, indicating growth potential in the high-end segment of the artificial lens market driven by an aging population [21] - The market for high-value consumables is expected to benefit from recent policy changes and the ongoing demand for diverse medical supplies [24]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10][46] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a significant decline of 8.06% this week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 7.62 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) decreased from 95.79x to 88.3x, currently at the 94.2% historical percentile [5][12] - Supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to slightly increase due to stable operations of separation enterprises and increased output from recycling companies, while demand remains stable with expectations of increased end-user consumption in October [7][45] - The market is anticipated to remain in a stalemate with overall rare earth prices stabilizing [7][45] Market Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of -5%, a 3-month return of 37%, and a 12-month return of 108% [4] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 1%, 55%, and 149% respectively [4] Price Trends - Prices for light rare earth concentrates have mostly rebounded, while medium and heavy rare earth prices remain weak [9][14] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.7% to 571,000 CNY/ton, and the metal price decreased by 0.43% to 700,000 CNY/ton [19][22] - The price of neodymium-iron-boron blanks saw a slight increase of 0.7% to 144.5 CNY/kg [41] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply is slightly increasing due to stable operations in the praseodymium and neodymium segment, while demand is supported by stable orders from major magnetic material manufacturers [7][45] - The demand from downstream sectors such as new energy vehicles is showing marginal decline, while industrial trends remain positive [7][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a cautious approach due to potential valuation adjustments from suppressed risk appetite, while focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material companies with strong customer structures and growth potential [10][46][47]

Group 1 - The market anticipates a potential 50 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to strong performance in Asian stock markets [2] - The expectation of a rate cut is driving global funds to accelerate purchases of gold, with recommendations to focus on leading gold companies [2] - The strategic value of rare metals is increasing due to trade disputes and geopolitical conflicts, with a clear global monopoly pattern emerging in the rare earth industry [2] Group 2 - The strategic metals sector may undergo a value reassessment, with recommendations to focus on rare earth magnets and tungsten [3] - Key Hong Kong stocks related to the gold industry include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold International [4] - Key Hong Kong stocks related to rare earth magnets include Jien Mining and those related to tungsten include Jiahua International Resources [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry rebounded by 3.89% this week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.51 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) increased by 3.55 times to 95.79 times, currently at 96.3% of its historical percentile [5][12] - The supply of rare earths remains tight in the short term, with stable operations in upstream mineral separation enterprises, while waste separation enterprises are increasing output [41][42] - Demand from magnetic material companies is stable, with high operating rates among large manufacturers and a gradual release of new demand [41][42] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of gradual price rebounds for rare earths as low-priced spot supplies decrease [41][42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a relative return of 16% over one month, 41% over three months, and 129% over twelve months [4] - Absolute returns were 25% over one month, 57% over three months, and 171% over twelve months [4] Price Trends - This week, the prices of rare earth concentrates significantly declined, with mixed carbonate rare earth ore prices dropping by 10% [9][14] - Praseodymium and neodymium prices fell initially but rebounded, while dysprosium prices stabilized after a decline [6][9] - The price of neodymium-iron-boron blanks fell by 2.71% for N35 and 1.84% for H35 [9][37] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a mixed trend, with some upstream mineral separation enterprises experiencing slight operational declines due to raw material constraints, while waste separation enterprises are increasing output [41][42] - Demand remains strong, supported by stable orders from large manufacturers and an increase in export quantities [41][42] Valuation and Performance Outlook - Current absolute and relative historical valuation levels are supported by loose liquidity and expectations of price increases in the industry chain [42] - The report suggests focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from tightening supply expectations and easing export controls [10][42] - Long-term, as rare earth prices gradually recover, downstream magnetic material companies are expected to see continued profit recovery [10][43]

Macro Overview - In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month, with food prices rising by 0.5% and pork prices dropping by 16.1%, contributing to a 0.24 percentage point decline in CPI [2] - In the first half of the year, the shipment volume of wearable wrist devices in mainland China reached 33.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36%, marking a historical high for the first half of the year [2] - In August, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 0.76% month-on-month and 7.34% year-on-year, while the top ten cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.59% and a year-on-year decline of 4.90% [3] Industry and Company Analysis Electronics - The semiconductor sector reported a decline of 6.55% last week, with the electronic industry down by 4.57% [6] - Broadcom's Q3 financial report showed a revenue of $15.952 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with AI-related revenue reaching $5.2 billion, up 63% year-on-year [8][9] - The electronic sector's PE (TTM) was 57.94X, down by 2.69X week-on-week, while the PB (LF) was 4.61X, down by 0.21X [7] New Materials - The rare earth magnetic materials industry fell by 10.58%, underperforming the benchmark by 9.77 percentage points [12] - Light rare earth ore prices continued to decline, while medium and heavy rare earth ore prices remained stable [12] - The overall supply of rare earths is tightening, with demand gradually recovering, supporting prices [15] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector declined by 0.98% from September 1 to September 5, underperforming the broader market [17] - A new consumption policy in Shaoxing aims to stimulate dining consumption, which is expected to boost demand for liquor [17] - Kweichow Moutai's parent company plans to increase its shareholding by investing between 3 billion and 3.3 billion RMB, indicating confidence in the company's long-term value [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strong performance, with basic metals experiencing a net profit growth of 27% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by a rebound in manufacturing and expectations of interest rate cuts [4][19] - Gold maintains a bullish market trend, with significant profit elasticity due to rising production capacity and price increases [5][19] - Energy metals show mixed performance, with lithium prices under pressure while cobalt prices improve, leading to better profitability for cobalt-related companies [6][19] - Rare earth materials are recovering as export controls enhance their strategic value, with prices stabilizing after previous declines [7][19] - Titanium materials are gradually improving in profitability, awaiting a recovery in high-end demand [8][19] Summary by Sections Basic Metals - In the first half of 2025, the basic metals sector achieved a net profit of 703.79 billion yuan, a 26.67% increase year-on-year, with a revenue growth of 4.24% [21][30] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 376.44 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to easing tariff pressures and strong industrial performance [4][37] Gold - The gold sector experienced a revenue increase of 25.94% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with net profit soaring by 58.95% [14][19] - In Q2 2025, gold prices reached new highs, driven by trade conflicts and recession expectations, leading to significant profit elasticity for gold mining companies [5][19] Energy Metals - The energy metals sector faced a decline in lithium prices, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 4.76% in the first half of 2025, while cobalt prices improved significantly [6][19] - Cobalt prices are recovering due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented export bans [6][19] Rare Earth Materials - The rare earth sector saw a revenue increase of 12.74% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with net profit growth of 260.72% [19][21] - Export controls and new regulations are expected to enhance the strategic value of rare earth materials, supporting price recovery [7][19] Titanium Materials - The titanium sector reported a slight revenue decrease of 0.90% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with net profit down by 4.04% [19][21] - There is an expectation of improved profitability as high-end demand begins to recover [8][19]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10][44] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a decline of 10.58% this week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 9.77 percentage points. The industry valuation (TTM P/E) decreased by 12.95 to 92.24x, currently at 95.8% of its historical percentile [5][12] - Light rare earth prices continued to decline, while medium and heavy rare earth prices remained strong. Prices for praseodymium and neodymium continued to fall, while dysprosium and terbium prices increased. The price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron blanks rose initially and then stabilized [6][9][39] - Supply tightness in the rare earth sector persists, with expectations of continued supply contraction due to total quantity control measures and restrictions on imports from Myanmar and the U.S. Demand is gradually being released, with good order volumes for magnetic material companies in August and September [10][43] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a relative return of 15% over one month, 49% over three months, and 119% over twelve months. Absolute returns were 24%, 64%, and 156% respectively [4] Price Trends - Light rare earth ore prices fell by 2.44% to 40,000 CNY/ton, while medium and heavy rare earth ore prices showed resilience, with medium yttrium-rich europium ore prices rising by 1.83% to 223,000 CNY/ton [9][14] - Praseodymium and neodymium prices fell by 2.93% and 2.29% respectively, while dysprosium and terbium prices increased by 1.24% and 3.61% respectively [19][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies due to expectations of supply contraction and potential demand increases from relaxed export controls. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream magnetic material companies with good customer structures and full capacity utilization, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet [10][44][45]