证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 本周行业仍跑输大盘，需求支撑不足下产业链价格延续下行 相关研究： | 《本周行业表现弱于大盘，产业链价格维持 | | | --- | --- | | 疲弱》 | 20251214 | | 《镨钕受供给收紧支撑价格上行，中重稀土 | | | 价格跌势延续》 | 20251207 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1 -6 53 绝对收益 -2 -4 69 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： 据 Wind 数据，本周1稀土磁材行业下跌 1.81%，跑输基准（沪深 300）1.53 pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）回落 1.42x 至 72.08x，当前处于 85.5%2历 史分位。 ❑ 本周进口轻稀土矿及中重稀土矿价格延续下行，镨钕价格弱 ...

美联储如期降息，行业继续共振上行 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 ——有色及贵金属周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S0880525040114 | 本报告导读 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 镨钕受供给收紧支撑价格上行，中重稀土价格跌势延续 相关研究： | 《本周轻稀土链价格延续回升，中重稀土价 | | --- | | 格仍疲软》 20251130 | | 《本周行业延续跌势，轻稀土链价格回升》 | | 20251123 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -2 -9 47 绝对收益 -3 -6 64 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 湘财证券研究所 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 市场行情：本周稀土磁材行业上涨 3.47%，跑赢基准 2.19 pct 据 Wind 数据，本周1稀土磁材行业上涨 3.47%，跑赢基准（沪深 300）2.19 pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）回升 2.37x 至 74.16x，当前处于 87.3%2历 史分位。 ❑ 本周稀土精矿价格延续 ...

Group 1: New Materials Industry - The rare earth magnetic materials industry rebounded by 2.6% last week, outperforming the benchmark by 0.96 percentage points, with the industry valuation (TTM P/E) rising to 71.79x, currently at 85.5% of its historical percentile [4] - Last week, the prices of rare earth concentrates generally rebounded, with praseodymium and neodymium prices continuing to rise, dysprosium prices declining, and terbium prices weakening [5] - The price of sintered NdFeB (N35) increased by 3.64% last week, while H35 rose by 2.41%, supported by strong demand from downstream orders [7] - The supply side of the rare earth sector is generally tight, with some separation enterprises experiencing reduced operating rates due to maintenance or raw material issues, leading to a tight supply of oxides [8] - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a standoff, but the supply side is expected to decrease while the demand side shows a steady upward trend, indicating that rare earth prices are likely to remain stable with a slight upward bias [8] Group 2: Medical Services Industry - The report highlights that the company is a leading CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) driven by innovation, with revenue growing from 2.017 billion yuan in 2019 to 5.161 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 20.67% [11] - The revenue from contract custom business has been increasing, with its share rising from 37.55% in 2019 to 75.00% in 2024, indicating a strong focus on this segment [12] - The global CDMO market has maintained a high level of prosperity, with the market size growing from $44.6 billion in 2018 to $79.7 billion in 2023, and is expected to reach $168.4 billion and $338.5 billion by 2028 and 2030, respectively [14] - The company is actively expanding its project pipeline, particularly in peptide and conjugated nucleic acid technologies, which are expected to drive future growth [15] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.670 billion, 6.278 billion, and 6.957 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 930 million, 1.031 billion, and 1.147 billion yuan, indicating a positive long-term outlook [16]

铜板块：2025年前三季度铜板块收入增速较去年同期回正，归母净利润增速改善明显。收入端来看， 2025年前三季度铜板块实现营收14249.67亿元，同比增长5.01%，增速虽较2024年全年下降但较2024年 同期小幅回升;利润端来看，2025年前三季度铜板块实现归母净利润690.05亿元，同比增长46.17%，增 速较2024全年及2024年同期分别提升11.38pct和18.36pct。2025年前三季度铜板块盈利能力回升，毛利率 及净利率分别较去年同期提升2.74pct和1.82pct至10.42%和5.84%;资本支出同比大幅收缩14.92%。 贵金属板块：2025年前三季度贵金属板块营收及利润同比高增长，增速边际大幅提升。收入端来看， 2025年前三季度贵金属板块实现营收2,995.43亿元，同比增长35.02%，较2024年全年和2024年同期分别 提升11.47pct和9.53pct;利润端来看，2025年前三季度贵金属板块实现归母净利润147.26亿元，同比增长 62.64%，增速较2024全年及2024年同期分别大幅提升14.4pct和16.45pct，板块收入及净利润大幅增长主 要得益于金 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 本周轻稀土链价格延续回升，中重稀土价格仍疲软 相关研究： | 《本周行业延续跌势，轻稀土链价格回升》 | | | --- | --- | | 20251123 | | | 《本周行业继续调整，产业链价格短期转 | | | 弱》 | 20251116 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -8 -18 50 绝对收益 -11 -17 67 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 ◆ 基本面变化。稀土环节，供应端总体呈现偏紧态势，部分分离企业因 检修或原料问题开工率有所下降，导致氧化物现货供应偏紧；金属厂 整体生产稳定，但头部企业散单流出减少，多以长协订单为主，金属 端现货仍有一定支撑。需求端，磁材企业保持较高开工率，国内订单 稳定，同时海外市场需求正逐步恢复， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal industry has significantly outperformed the benchmark, with a cumulative increase of 65.71% year-to-date as of November 21, 2025, surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 52.53 percentage points [4][15] - The revenue and profit growth rates in the non-ferrous metal sector have gradually stabilized since the beginning of the year, with notable improvements in the performance of energy metals [4][56] - The first three quarters of 2025 saw the non-ferrous metal sector achieve a total revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 151.29 billion yuan, up 40.9% year-on-year [4][36] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The non-ferrous metal index has shown strong performance, ranking second among the first-level industries in the first three quarters of 2025, with a quarterly increase of 41.82% in Q3 [15][18] - The nickel sector recorded the highest growth in the first three quarters, while the silver sector led in Q3 [4][22] 2. Copper Sector - The copper sector achieved a revenue of 1.42 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.01%, and a net profit of 69.01 billion yuan, up 46.17% year-on-year [5][65] 3. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector reported a revenue of 299.54 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, and a net profit of 14.73 billion yuan, up 62.64% year-on-year [6][11] 4. Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth sector saw a positive revenue growth rate, with significant improvements in performance, and a net profit growth that outpaced revenue growth [6][11] 5. Tungsten Sector - The tungsten sector achieved a revenue of 50.25 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 20.38%, and a net profit of 2.87 billion yuan, up 28.58% year-on-year [7][11] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the energy metals sector due to supply constraints and increasing demand from domestic grid investments and new energy sectors, as well as the precious metals sector, which is expected to benefit from a long-term bullish trend in gold prices [8]

Group 1: Copper and Aluminum - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increased physical demand from AI investments, particularly in data centers and power grids, leading to a sustained upward trend in copper prices [1] - The copper supply-demand imbalance persists, and the valuation of the copper sector remains relatively low, suggesting a positive investment opportunity [1] - The aluminum industry is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, which will support aluminum prices and allow leading companies to achieve good profit levels due to their resource management and supply chain strategies [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - The long-term trend of "de-dollarization" is driving some countries to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and increase their gold reserves, a trend that is expected to continue despite easing U.S.-China trade tensions [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are accelerating this process, with expectations of rising precious metal prices in 2025 and beyond [2] - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections may lead to more aggressive rate cuts from the new Federal Reserve chair, further supporting the bullish outlook for precious metals [2] Group 3: Energy Metals - The demand for lithium is anticipated to return to a tight balance by 2026, driven by growth in energy storage and power demand, with a projected demand growth rate of approximately 50% from energy storage and nearly 20% from power batteries [3] - The global lithium demand is expected to grow by 24.2%, while supply growth is estimated at 18.1%, indicating a shift from a loose balance to a tight balance in the lithium market [3] - The upward trend in lithium prices is expected as the market transitions to a tighter supply-demand scenario [3] Group 4: Rare Earth Materials - Domestic rare earth prices are at a cyclical low, with expectations for a continued upward trend due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and wind power [4] - The demand for neodymium-iron-boron is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 29% growth from the electric vehicle sector and 18% from wind power [4] - The tightening of supply, coupled with rising overseas prices, is likely to enhance the profitability and valuation of domestic rare earth magnet manufacturers [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Maintain "Overweight" [4] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has continued its downward trend, with a 5.29% decline this week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 1.52 percentage points [6][13] - The current industry valuation (TTM P/E) has decreased by 3.97x to 69.94x, which is at 84.1% of the historical percentile [6][13] - Light rare earth concentrate prices have rebounded, while medium and heavy rare earth prices have slightly declined [7][10] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of price stabilization and potential upward trends in the future due to tightening supply and improving demand [10][44] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials sector has seen a relative return of -12% over the past month, -9% over three months, and a positive 46% over the past year [5] - Absolute returns are -15% for one month, -5% for three months, and 57% for twelve months [5] Price Movements - Light rare earth concentrate prices have increased by 2.86% to 3.6 million CNY/ton, 3.23% to 3.2 million CNY/ton, and 3.85% to 2.7 million CNY/ton for different mines [10] - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide has risen by 0.73% to 549,000 CNY/ton, while praseodymium-neodymium metal has slightly decreased by 0.15% [15][17] - Dysprosium prices have continued to decline by 1.66% to 1,485 CNY/kg, and terbium prices have also decreased [22] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that despite high valuation pressures, the expected recovery in rare earth prices and demand could lead to improved profitability for downstream magnetic material companies [44][45] - It is recommended to focus on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material companies with strong customer structures and growth potential [11][45]