Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly Israel's airstrike on Iran, has led to a significant surge in oil prices, with Brent and WTI reaching highs of $78.5 and $74.63 per barrel, respectively, marking daily increases of 12.0% and 13.2%[3] - Historical context shows that similar geopolitical tensions in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in oil supply reductions and subsequent economic impacts, including high inflation rates in the U.S. reaching peaks of 12.2% and 11.9% for overall and core CPI, respectively[4] Group 2: U.S. Economic Policy and Inflation - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced new tariffs on various steel household appliances, which may accelerate the rebound of core inflation, previously subdued by temporary factors[5] - The core PPI in the U.S. slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% in May, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics due to the new tariffs and rising oil prices[5] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell has expressed concerns about potential stagflation risks, suggesting that the Fed's current stance may be relatively accommodative, with low probabilities for significant rate cuts this year[5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - China's mid-range consumer goods exports have weakened recently, and the new U.S. tariffs could introduce uncertainties in export dynamics, necessitating increased fiscal support to mitigate risks[5] - The central government may need to enhance subsidies for domestic consumption of durable goods, especially if export pressures increase due to U.S. tariff policies[5] - A potential small rate cut of 10 basis points may be considered to stabilize real estate expectations and stimulate durable goods consumption amid a low U.S. dollar index[5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated bearishly [5] Group 2: Core View - Short - term macro disturbances have intensified again, with the trading focus returning to strong reality and weak expectations. Demand is in a downward trend overall, and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival) is expanding. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will fluctuate weakly [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs News - On June 12, local time, the US Department of Commerce announced that it will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel - made household appliances from June 23, including "steel derivatives" such as dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators [3] Supply - The current shipment of foreign mines has increased slightly month - on - month. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China has increased significantly, with a notable increase in Australian shipments, a decline in Brazilian shipments from a high level, and small fluctuations in shipments from non - mainstream countries. In June, it is the peak season for foreign mine shipments. With the fiscal year volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that foreign mine shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will weaken marginally [4] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. The molten iron has declined for five consecutive weeks, with an average daily output of 241.61 this period (month - on - month - 0.19). Blast furnaces are mainly under regular maintenance. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively good. It is expected that the molten iron will show an overall downward trend from a high level, but the downward slope will be small, and high demand supports the price [5] Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ores at steel mills has increased month - on - month, and the daily consumption has continued to decline but remains at a high level in the same period. With the increase in arrivals and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory has accumulated this period. Due to the weak market demand expectation, the restocking expectation is weak [5]