Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Core View - The supply and demand of steel products have both declined this period. As the holiday approaches, downstream demand is gradually decreasing, and the market is basically in a semi-stagnant state. Inventory continues to increase, the winter storage intensity is weak, and the winter storage price is 3050 - 3150 yuan with a post-settlement model. The market is mostly cautious and wait-and-see about the future, and the expectation of post-holiday recovery is weak [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed up, and closed down at night [1] Important Information - China Machinery Industry Federation expects the growth rate of the main indicators of the machinery industry to be around 5.5% in 2026 [1] - The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in January was 51%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The China Construction Machinery Industry Association reported that the operating rate of excavators in China in January 2026 was 48.6% [1] - Six cities in Hebei (Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Baoding, Langfang, Hengshui, and Cangzhou) launched a level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on February 8 [1] Market Logic - The supply and demand of steel products have both declined, downstream demand is decreasing, the market is semi-stagnant, inventory is increasing, winter storage is weak, and the post-holiday recovery expectation is weak [1] Trading Strategy - 3050 for rebar remains a strong support. As the holiday approaches, it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views - On Monday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed down, and also closed down during the night session. The overall market sentiment dominated the short - term market trend, with the stock market and commodities generally falling, and precious metals and non - ferrous metals leading the decline. The black - series varieties also declined, and stainless steel and its raw material nickel fell significantly. However, during the night session, raw materials such as coking coal, coke, and ore stopped falling, and nickel and stainless steel showed signs of stopping the decline [1]. - The fundamentals of steel changed little. The production and inventory of the five major steel products increased this period, while demand decreased. Rebar production and inventory both increased, and rebar continued to accumulate inventory. Hot - rolled coil production increased while inventory decreased. Rigid demand entered the seasonal off - season, and winter storage demand was less than in previous years. The market generally expected post - holiday prices to be stable [1]. - Based on the night - session trend, the black - series may stop falling, and the raw material side is relatively strong, providing support for finished products. It is recommended to cautiously lay out long positions on dips and set stop - losses. Stainless steel and nickel may fluctuate in the short term, and it is not suitable to chase short positions in large quantities at the current point [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and also closed down during the night session [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Nine departments issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan", which encourages local governments to increase subsidies for the replacement of consumer goods during the Spring Festival, support offline physical retail, and mobilize enterprises to carry out exhibitions and sales of automobiles, home appliances, digital, and smart products during the Spring Festival [1]. - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global market. The new order volume was 107.82 million deadweight tons, accounting for 69% of the global market. As of the end of December, the order - on - hand volume was 274.42 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.5%, accounting for 66.8% of the global market, reaching a new historical high [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - On Monday, the stock market and commodities generally fell, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals leading the decline. Affected by this, black - series varieties also declined, and stainless steel, which has the closest relationship with non - ferrous metals, fell sharply. During the night session, raw materials stopped falling, and nickel and stainless steel showed signs of stopping the decline. The short - term market sentiment dominated the market trend [1]. - The fundamentals of steel changed little. The production and inventory of the five major steel products increased, while demand decreased. Rebar production and inventory both increased, and rebar continued to accumulate inventory. Hot - rolled coil production increased while inventory decreased. Rigid demand entered the seasonal off - season, and winter storage demand was less than in previous years. The market generally expected post - holiday prices to be stable. The current winter storage locked - in price is basically between 3100 - 3150 yuan, which is roughly the same as the futures price [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Based on the night - session trend, the black - series may stop falling, and the raw material side is relatively strong, providing support for finished products. Since the decline did not reach the lower limit of the wide - range fluctuation, such as 3050 for rebar, it is recommended to cautiously lay out long positions on dips and set stop - losses. Stainless steel and nickel may fluctuate in the short term, and it is not suitable to chase short positions in large quantities at the current point. It is recommended to participate in small amounts or wait for opportunities and focus on risk control [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 406,100 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [2]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [2]. - In the future, steel prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: This week, the main rebar RB2510 contract fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,189 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.6365 million lots, an increase of 8,300 lots. The main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract also fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,432 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.2918 million lots, a decrease of 136,700 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar moved down. As of August 14, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,290 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also moved down. As of August 14, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,420 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar RB2510 contract against the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 131 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract against the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 78 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 243 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 118,900 tons year - on - year [21]. - The weekly output of the five major steel products totaled 871,630 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons week - on - week. Among them, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline [21]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [21]. 2.2 Demand - The State Council has approved a hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan. The project has officially started, and the future demand for steel in infrastructure construction is promising. In addition, the truce period for Sino - US tariffs has been extended by 90 days, and the tariffs on China remain the same as before. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions, and there are expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the path for the realization of the off - season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [32]. 2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel in major cities across the country was 990,840 tons, an increase of 28,340 tons week - on - week. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 425,130 tons, an increase of 12,270 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.41597 million tons, an increase of 40,610 tons week - on - week. The overall inventory is at a low level for the same period, and steel mills are in a relative de - stocking stage, transferring inventory downstream. However, the overall de - stocking trend has ended, and inventory has begun to accumulate [38]. 2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [46]. - The supply and circulation of scrap steel were tight this week, and price support remained. However, the improvement in downstream terminal demand during the off - season was limited, and the upward trend of steel prices gradually slowed down. The spreads between rebar and scrap steel and between hot - rolled coils and scrap steel first expanded and then narrowed, and the profitability of steel mills also began to decline slightly. As a result, the daily average crude steel output of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country decreased by 0.86% week - on - week. However, as of August 15, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country increased by 0.49% to 57.39%, and the average operating rate increased by 1.49% to 76.39% [48]. 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials moved up. Among them, the price of Tangshan steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,089 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Tangshan increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1,420 yuan/ton [56]. Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 40,610 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [59]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [59].