Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of finished steel products rebounded briefly and then declined. The spot market was relatively strong, and the basis widened significantly. The consumption of listed steel products decreased month - on - month, while the total output increased slightly. - In terms of varieties, both the production and sales of rebar decreased, with consumption declining faster than production, and the total inventory continued to rise. Both the production and sales of hot - rolled coils increased, and the total inventory increased slightly month - on - month. In the short term, the structure of stronger hot - rolled coils and weaker rebar is maintained. For rebar, the valuation is in the repair stage, and the 01 contract should pay attention to the support at 3200. Operate with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - **Price and Output**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated slightly. As of August 14, the total output of five major steel products increased by 2420 tons. The apparent demand was 831,020 tons, a decrease of 14,720 tons month - on - month. As of August 15, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of rebar in East China was 3134.5 yuan, with a profit of about 138 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 225.5 yuan. For electric furnaces in East China, the flat - rate electricity cost was about 3368 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity cost was about 3240 yuan [6]. - **Scrap Steel**: As of August 15, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 36.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 558,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6100 tons. The supply of scrap steel increased, but the inventory of 255 steel enterprises decreased by 2.6% [7]. - **Macro Data**: In 2025 from January to July, the cumulative output of pig iron was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% year - on - year, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year - on - year. In July 2025, the PMI was 49.3%. The newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises decreased year - on - year. From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, infrastructure investment decreased by 5.07%, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17% [17][19][23]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and the completed floor area decreased by 16.5% year - on - year [30]. **Main Varieties' Basis and Spread** - **Spread Strategy**: This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to be strong [41]. **Supply Analysis** - **Long - Process Supply**: As of August 15, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%, and the daily output of hot metal was 2407,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.14% [44]. - **Short - Process Supply**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 36.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. As of August 15, the iron - scrap price difference was - 37.7 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.3 yuan [47]. **Demand - Related Indicators** - **Rebar Production**: This week, the original sample output of rebar was 220,450 tons, a decrease of 730 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 190,250 tons, a decrease of 290 tons, and the short - process output was 30,200 tons, a decrease of 440 tons [60]. - **Building Materials Transactions**: The trading volume of building materials in different regions showed different trends [63]. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating rate of national cement mills was 41.91%, a month - on - month increase of 6.2 percentage points, turning from a decline to an increase [71]. - **Real Estate Sales**: The 30 - city real - estate sales data showed certain trends [73]. **Inventory Situation** - **Rebar Inventory**: The original sample rebar factory inventory was 172,260 tons, an increase of 4060 tons, the social inventory was 414,930 tons, an increase of 26,450 tons, and the total inventory was 587,190 tons, an increase of 30,510 tons [76]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 315,590 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons. The apparent demand was 314,750 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8540 tons. The factory inventory increased by 2100 tons, the social inventory decreased by 1210 tons, and the total inventory increased by 840 tons [79]. **Export Situation** - As of August 15, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars, an increase of 5 US dollars, and the export profit was - 4.5 US dollars, an increase of 6.4 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 3.0699 million tons, an increase of 425,500 tons [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 406,100 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [2]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [2]. - In the future, steel prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: This week, the main rebar RB2510 contract fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,189 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.6365 million lots, an increase of 8,300 lots. The main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract also fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,432 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.2918 million lots, a decrease of 136,700 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar moved down. As of August 14, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,290 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also moved down. As of August 14, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,420 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar RB2510 contract against the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 131 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract against the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 78 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 243 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 118,900 tons year - on - year [21]. - The weekly output of the five major steel products totaled 871,630 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons week - on - week. Among them, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline [21]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [21]. 2.2 Demand - The State Council has approved a hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan. The project has officially started, and the future demand for steel in infrastructure construction is promising. In addition, the truce period for Sino - US tariffs has been extended by 90 days, and the tariffs on China remain the same as before. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions, and there are expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the path for the realization of the off - season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [32]. 2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel in major cities across the country was 990,840 tons, an increase of 28,340 tons week - on - week. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 425,130 tons, an increase of 12,270 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.41597 million tons, an increase of 40,610 tons week - on - week. The overall inventory is at a low level for the same period, and steel mills are in a relative de - stocking stage, transferring inventory downstream. However, the overall de - stocking trend has ended, and inventory has begun to accumulate [38]. 2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [46]. - The supply and circulation of scrap steel were tight this week, and price support remained. However, the improvement in downstream terminal demand during the off - season was limited, and the upward trend of steel prices gradually slowed down. The spreads between rebar and scrap steel and between hot - rolled coils and scrap steel first expanded and then narrowed, and the profitability of steel mills also began to decline slightly. As a result, the daily average crude steel output of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country decreased by 0.86% week - on - week. However, as of August 15, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country increased by 0.49% to 57.39%, and the average operating rate increased by 1.49% to 76.39% [48]. 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials moved up. Among them, the price of Tangshan steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,089 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Tangshan increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1,420 yuan/ton [56]. Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 40,610 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [59]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [59].

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - Since the Politburo meeting in July last year, the policy level has continuously emphasized "anti-involution." The recent meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission has elevated anti-involution to the national strategic level, raising market expectations for a new round of supply-side reforms [8]. - From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the off-season demand characteristics of finished products are not obvious recently. Varieties such as rebar and hot-rolled coils have not effectively accumulated inventory during the off-season. Coupled with the current policy window period, steel prices are supported to some extent. The rebound pressure of rebar should be noted at the valley electricity cost [8]. Summary by Directory Conclusion and Balance Sheet - Last week, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated and rebounded. The price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3,190 yuan (+50), and that in Tangshan was 3,150 yuan (+40). For hot-rolled coils, the price in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan (+50), and that in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan (+50) [6]. - As of July 10, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 124,400 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products increased by 1,770 tons month-on-month, and the social inventory decreased by 2,120 tons. The apparent demand was 873,070 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 121,900 tons [7]. - As of July 11, on the long-process spot side, the cash含税 cost of rebar in East China's long process was 2,932.5 yuan, and the point-to-point profit was about 257.5 yuan. The cash含税 profit of hot-rolled coils in the long process was about 267.5 yuan. On the electric furnace side, the flat-electric furnace cost in East China (Fubao caliber) was about 3,304 yuan, and the valley-electric cost was about 3,173 yuan. The flat-electric profit of rebar in East China was about -204 yuan, and the valley-electric profit was about -73 yuan [7]. - As of July 10, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,080 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan. Data showed that the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 29.6%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points; the daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 505,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,700 tons; among them, the daily consumption of 132 long-process steel mills was 255,000 tons/day, a month-on-month decrease of 6,100 tons; the daily consumption of short-process was 14,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 320 tons. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 461,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,300 tons, a decrease of 3.2%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.621 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 92,700 tons, a decrease of 2%. Overall, the iron-scrap price difference rebounded from a low level this period. After the cost of the long process increased, the price of scrap steel also began to rise. It is expected that the cost of the electric furnace will further increase [7]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Steel Production and Inventory Data**: The report provides detailed production and inventory data of five major steel products from May 2, 2025, to July 11, 2025, including rebar, hot-rolled coils, medium and heavy plates, wire rods, and cold-rolled coils [10]. - **Crude Steel Production**: In 2024, the crude steel production was 1.00509 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared with 2023, a decrease of 1.7%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative crude steel production was 432 million tons, a decrease of 1.7% compared with the same period in 2024 [16]. - **Monetary Data**: In May 2025, the newly added social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan compared with the same period last year and an increase of 113 billion yuan compared with April, higher than the Wind consensus expectation of 2.05 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of the social financing stock in May was 8.7%, the same as that in April, slightly lower than the Wind consensus expectation of 8.8%. The newly added RMB loans in the social financing caliber in May were 59.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.37 billion yuan compared with the same period last year and an increase of 50.76 billion yuan compared with April [18]. - **PMI Data**: The PMI in June 2025 was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with May [21]. - **Investment Data**: From January to May 2025, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.91947 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed asset investment was flat year-on-year [26]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to May 2025, the national new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the housing sales area was 70.53 million square meters, a decrease of 4.6%; the housing completion area was 183.85 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3% [29]. - **Crude Steel Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a detailed supply and demand balance sheet of crude steel from 2019 to 2025E, including crude steel production, pig iron production, scrap steel production, crude steel imports, crude steel exports, and inventory [32]. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar continued to shrink [45]. Supply - **Long-Process Supply**: As of July 11, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points compared with July 4, a decrease of 0.43%. The daily average pig iron output was 239,800 tons, a decrease of 1,040 tons compared with July 4, a decrease of 0.43% [48]. - **Short-Process Supply**: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 29.6% (+0.7). As of July 11, the iron-scrap price difference was -148.64 yuan (+48.7) [51]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival of scrap steel at 255 steel mills decreased month-on-month. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises decreased month-on-month [7]. - **Rebar Production**: This week, the original sample output of rebar was 216,660 tons (-44,200), of which the long-process output was 189,740 tons (-55,000), and the short-process output was 26,920 tons (+10,800) [64]. Demand - **Building Materials Transactions**: The report provides transaction data of building materials in different regions, including the northern, eastern, and southern regions [67][69][71]. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating load of national cement mills was 40.79%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points compared with last week, and the increase rate expanded by 0.14 percentage points [75]. - **Real Estate Sales**: The report provides high-frequency sales data of 30 cities in the real estate market [77]. - **Rebar Inventory**: This period, the original sample rebar factory inventory was 180,880 tons (+410), the social inventory was 359,490 tons (-5,250), and the total inventory was 540,370 tons (-4,840) [80]. - **Hot-Rolled Coil Supply and Demand**: This week, the output of hot-rolled coils was 323,140 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 50,000 tons. The apparent demand was 322,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 510 tons, and the social inventory increased by 1,140 tons, with the overall inventory increasing by 630 tons [83]. - **Plate Demand**: As of July 11, the cold-hot price difference in the Shanghai area was 480 yuan/ton (+20) [90]. - **Export Situation**: As of July 11, the FOB export price of China was 450 US dollars (-), and the export profit was -18.6 US dollars (-5.2). The outbound volume from 32 major domestic ports was 3.1363 million tons (+691,200) [96].