研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周三螺纹热卷大幅上涨。夜盘收涨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | 年全球新船订单较 | | | 1、根据克拉克森的数据，2025 2024 年高位水平下降 27%，但已 | | | | | 超过 2021-2023 年平均订单水平。集装箱船依旧是最亮眼的板块，全年新船订单高 | | 年全年创纪录的 | | | 达 644 艘 475.9 万 TEU，超过 2024 467.4 万 TEU，再创历史新高。 | | | | | 2025 年集装箱船新造船总投资也进一步增加到了 593.64 亿美元（约合人民币 | | 亿美元。 | | | 4151.83 亿元），略高于 2024 年的 585.68 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position in steel products [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher, with rebar rising and hot-rolled coils falling during the night session. The supply of the five major steel products decreased by 2.1% week-on-week, total inventory dropped by 0.67%, and weekly consumption fell by 5.4%. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased this week, inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot-rolled coils increased, and the apparent demand for both declined. With blast furnace production cuts and maintenance in some areas, partial enterprise production cuts, and full losses in electric arc furnace steel, the supply of crude steel is expected to continue to shrink, while the demand side remains weak. The pressure level for the main rebar contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000. It is recommended to continue holding long positions around 3000 and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher, with rebar rising and hot-rolled coils falling during the night session [1] Important Information - In October, the bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.9%. The new loans in October may be less than the same period last year, and the slowdown in government bond issuance may lead to a decline in social financing. The supply of the five major steel products this week was 8.5674 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 185,500 tons, a decline of 2.1%; the total inventory was 15.0357 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 101,900 tons, a decline of 0.67%; the weekly consumption was 8.6693 million tons, a decline of 5.4%, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 7.2% month-on-month, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.2% month-on-month [1] Market Logic - The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased this week, inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot-rolled coils increased, and the apparent demand for both declined. With blast furnace production cuts and maintenance in Shanxi, Tangshan in Hebei and other places, partial enterprise production cuts, and full losses in electric arc furnace steel, the supply of crude steel is expected to continue to shrink, while the demand side remains weak. The pressure level for the main rebar contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000 [1] Trading Strategy - The 3000 level of rebar still has strong resilience. It is recommended to continue holding long positions around 3000 and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1]

Price and Basis - Prices are stabilizing with a slight upward trend, while the hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot market shows some strength, and the rebar price difference is expanding [1] - Absolute prices have rebounded, but the basis remains weak; rebar futures have turned to a premium over spot prices, while HRC futures maintain a discount [1] - The price difference between HRC and rebar has expanded again [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production has slightly decreased due to environmental inspections, but overall supply remains high; iron ore shipments in June have increased, leading to a slight accumulation in iron ore inventory [1] - The current profit ranking from high to low is: steel billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [1] - Rebar prices have fallen below both electric arc furnace and blast furnace cost lines, resulting in a noticeable reduction in rebar production [1] Supply - Overall production is showing a slight decline, with a small increase in current production levels; iron output increased by 0.6 million tons to 2.422 million tons [1] - The production of the five major steel products increased by 9.66 million tons to 8.68 million tons, with rebar production rising by 4.6 million tons to 2.122 million tons [1] - High-frequency production data shows a cumulative year-on-year increase of 19 million tons in iron element production from January to June, with a daily average increase of 100,000 tons [1] Demand - Demand for the five major steel products has slightly decreased, with rebar demand showing a significant decline, while HRC demand remains high [2] - Total demand for steel has slightly increased year-on-year, with domestic demand declining and external demand rising [2] - The overall demand remains high despite a peak and subsequent decline in demand [2] Inventory - Steel inventory is nearing a turning point for accumulation, with recent low-level accumulation showing some fluctuations [2] - Current inventory of the five major steel products has decreased by 15.7 million tons to 13.39 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 7 million tons to 5.51 million tons [2] Market Outlook - Black metal prices are stabilizing with a slight upward shift; futures prices have shown significant strength, while the basis remains weak [3] - The current market is still in the off-season for steel, with demand unlikely to improve marginally [3] - The strategy for the upcoming week includes holding short positions, with specific price levels for HRC and rebar contracts to consider for shorting [4]

Supply - Iron element production has decreased for two consecutive weeks, with average daily pig iron output down by 11,700 tons to 2,436,000 tons. Scrap steel consumption has increased by 2,500 tons to 548,000 tons. The production of the five major steel materials has decreased by 40,000 tons to 8,724,400 tons, while rebar production has increased by 50,000 tons to 2,315,000 tons, and hot-rolled coil production has decreased by 63,000 tons to 3,057,000 tons [1][2] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of iron element production from January to April is 11.5 million tons, with an average daily increase of nearly 100,000 tons. The maximum increase occurred in April, with a year-on-year growth of 7 million tons for that month [1][2] - The weekly production of the five major materials in April was 8.75 million tons, which is lower than the weekly average demand of 9.26 million tons. Rebar weekly average production in April was 2.3 million tons, below the demand of 2.5 million tons, and hot-rolled coil weekly average demand was 3.17 million tons, below the demand of 3.24 million tons [1][2] Demand - In May, the apparent demand for the five major materials has decreased month-on-month, with a reduction of 90,000 tons to 9,050,000 tons. Rebar demand decreased by 130,000 tons to 2,470,000 tons, and hot-rolled coil demand decreased by 165,000 tons to 3,130,000 tons [2] - Overall apparent demand has decreased month-on-month, with cold-rolled steel demand and inventory weakening. Domestic demand is facing a seasonal decline, while direct steel exports remain high, with net exports of steel and steel billets increasing by 50,000 tons year-on-year [2] - Manufacturing orders have declined due to U.S. tariffs, leading to a decrease in demand in April, particularly affecting cold-rolled steel inventory. However, after the tariff reduction in May, demand has shown some recovery, although it remains weak overall [2][3] Inventory - Steel inventory continues to show a trend of reduction, but the pace of reduction has slowed down. The five major materials inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 13,986,000 tons, with rebar down by 156,000 tons to 6,042,200 tons, and hot-rolled coil down by 74,000 tons to 3,400,000 tons. Cold-rolled steel continues to accumulate inventory, increasing by 36,200 tons to 1,728,000 tons [2] Cost and Profit - Profits remain stable, with blast furnace profitability, while electric furnace operations are at a loss. Current profits for steel products are as follows: steel billets > rebar > hot-rolled coil > cold-rolled coil, with rebar and hot-rolled coil profits at 100 yuan and 45 yuan per ton, respectively [2] Market Outlook - Following the tariff reduction on May 12, black steel prices initially rose but have since shown a weak trend. After a decline in pig iron data on Thursday, iron ore prices and steel prices have seen increased downward pressure. Current steel mill profits are acceptable, and with low inventory levels, there is no expectation of significant production cuts [3] - The reduction in tariffs in May has led to some recovery in demand, but the manufacturing sector is primarily affected by the home appliance and machinery industries. Short-term steel inventory pressure is expected to be manageable, supporting high steel production levels [3] - Steel prices are influenced by the decline in carbon elements, leading to a continuous downward shift in price levels. Seasonal declines in pig iron production are affecting iron element prices, but there is a lack of downward driving forces for iron elements [3]

Report Overview - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: May 15, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Currently, the production of the top five steel products has slightly declined, inventory has increased, and the demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils has fallen from its peak. However, there are multi-dimensional signs of recovery in the real estate market, and the steel demand in the automotive, shipbuilding, and machinery industries generally maintains a high growth trend. With the easing of Sino-US tariffs and increased expectations of export rush, the downstream demand outlook has improved. In the short term, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to show a slightly stronger and volatile trend [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On May 14, the main futures contracts 2510 of rebar and hot-rolled coils opened low and closed high, rising significantly, while the main futures contract 2507 of stainless steel fluctuated upward. The KDJ indicators of the daily lines of rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts diverged upward, and the MACD red bars of the daily lines of both contracts expanded [5][8] - The trading data of the main steel futures contracts on May 14 are as follows: - RB2510: The previous closing price was 3,079 yuan/ton, the opening price was 3,084 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3,133 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,067 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,127 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.23%. The trading volume was 2,134,942 lots, the open interest was 2,111,525 lots, a decrease of 39,651 lots, and the capital inflow/outflow was -0.15 billion yuan [5] - HC2510: The previous closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, the opening price was 3,220 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3,269 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,207 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,267 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.27%. The trading volume was 801,521 lots, the open interest was 1,351,894 lots, a decrease of 2,694 lots, and the capital inflow/outflow was 0.43 billion yuan [5] - SS2507: The previous closing price was 12,930 yuan/ton, the opening price was 12,930 yuan/ton, the highest price was 13,120 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 12,910 yuan/ton, the closing price was 13,080 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.16%. The trading volume was 142,909 lots, the open interest was 131,758 lots, an increase of 6,744 lots, and the capital inflow/outflow was 0.75 billion yuan [5] - The spot market prices and changes of rebar and hot-rolled coils on May 14 are as follows: - Rebar (HRB400E: 20mm): The prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and other places were 3,250 yuan/ton, 3,240 yuan/ton, 3,200 yuan/ton, etc., with price increases ranging from 10 to 40 yuan/ton [8] - Hot-rolled coils (4.75mm): The prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and other places were 3,320 yuan/ton, 3,330 yuan/ton, 3,330 yuan/ton, etc., with price increases ranging from 0 to 60 yuan/ton [8] 2. Industry News - According to data released by the China Iron and Steel Association, in early May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.05 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.205 million tons, a 0.2% increase in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.9 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.99 million tons, a 1.6% increase in daily output; and 20.83 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 2.083 million tons, an 8.4% decrease in daily output. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 16.06 million tons, a 5.0% increase from the previous ten-day period, a 29.8% increase from the beginning of the year, a 0.1% increase from the same period last month, a 1.4% decrease from the same period last year, and an 8.8% decrease from the same period the year before last [11] - The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce stated that strategic mineral export control is related to national security and development interests. To prevent the illegal outflow of strategic minerals, it is necessary to strengthen control over all links of the production and supply chain, starting from the source and involving all aspects from mining to export. All departments need to cooperate in their work, strengthen daily supervision, and promptly detect potential risks. Local governments should implement their regulatory responsibilities, comprehensively investigate relevant business entities in their regions, understand the production, operation, and flow of strategic minerals, and guide local enterprises to improve their compliance awareness and capabilities [11] - According to Mysteel, an alloy plant in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, recently reduced production at two 33,000KVA ferrosilicon-manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces, expected to affect the daily output by about 400 tons. A large ferrosilicon-manganese enterprise in Chongqing shut down two submerged arc furnaces starting from 12:00 on May 12, 2025, with the resumption time to be determined, affecting a daily output of 400 tons [11] - The UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) recommended on Tuesday that country-specific quota caps should be imposed on certain categories of steel imported into the UK to protect the UK's steel production industry. The quota cap measures will take effect on October 1 this year [11] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major markets, the weekly production of the top five steel products, the steel mill inventory of the top five steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major cities, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, and the apparent consumption of the top five steel products [14][16][19]