Price and Basis - Prices are stabilizing with a slight upward trend, while the hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot market shows some strength, and the rebar price difference is expanding [1] - Absolute prices have rebounded, but the basis remains weak; rebar futures have turned to a premium over spot prices, while HRC futures maintain a discount [1] - The price difference between HRC and rebar has expanded again [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production has slightly decreased due to environmental inspections, but overall supply remains high; iron ore shipments in June have increased, leading to a slight accumulation in iron ore inventory [1] - The current profit ranking from high to low is: steel billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [1] - Rebar prices have fallen below both electric arc furnace and blast furnace cost lines, resulting in a noticeable reduction in rebar production [1] Supply - Overall production is showing a slight decline, with a small increase in current production levels; iron output increased by 0.6 million tons to 2.422 million tons [1] - The production of the five major steel products increased by 9.66 million tons to 8.68 million tons, with rebar production rising by 4.6 million tons to 2.122 million tons [1] - High-frequency production data shows a cumulative year-on-year increase of 19 million tons in iron element production from January to June, with a daily average increase of 100,000 tons [1] Demand - Demand for the five major steel products has slightly decreased, with rebar demand showing a significant decline, while HRC demand remains high [2] - Total demand for steel has slightly increased year-on-year, with domestic demand declining and external demand rising [2] - The overall demand remains high despite a peak and subsequent decline in demand [2] Inventory - Steel inventory is nearing a turning point for accumulation, with recent low-level accumulation showing some fluctuations [2] - Current inventory of the five major steel products has decreased by 15.7 million tons to 13.39 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 7 million tons to 5.51 million tons [2] Market Outlook - Black metal prices are stabilizing with a slight upward shift; futures prices have shown significant strength, while the basis remains weak [3] - The current market is still in the off-season for steel, with demand unlikely to improve marginally [3] - The strategy for the upcoming week includes holding short positions, with specific price levels for HRC and rebar contracts to consider for shorting [4]

上周策略：观望 本周策略：单边观望，跨月正套持有 供给：铁元素产量持续两周回落。本周日均铁水-1.17万吨至243.6万吨；废钢日耗+0.25至54.8万吨。本 期五大材产量-4万吨至872.44万吨；螺纹钢产量+5万吨至231.5万吨；热卷产量-6.3万吨至305.7万吨。而 表外材产量环比上升。高频产量数据：1-4月铁元素产量累计同比增长1150万吨，日均增长近10万吨。 最大增幅在4月，单月同比增长700万吨。考虑去年5-6月高基数，预计上半年铁元素产量同比增长1600 万吨。分品种材看，其他材利润好于螺纹和热卷，分流铁水压力。4月五大材周产量875万吨，低于周均 表需926万吨。其中螺纹钢4月周均产量230万吨，低于表需250万吨。热卷周均表需317万吨，低于表需 324万吨。 需求：5月份五大材表需环比回落。本周五大材表需-9万吨至905万吨。螺纹钢表需-13万吨至247万吨； 热卷表需-16.5万吨至313万吨。当前总表需环比回落，其中冷系钢材表需和库存走弱。分行业看，内需 面临淡季需求回落，钢材直接出口维持高位，钢材+钢坯净出口日均同比增长5万吨，钢材直接出口维 持高位消化高产量压力。制造业订单 ...

021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2024 年 5 月 15 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 5 月 14 日，螺纹钢、热卷期货主力合约 2510 低开高走，大幅上行；不锈钢 期货主力合约 2507 震荡上行。 表2：5月14日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | 合约 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 多空 | 偏离度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持仓 | 持仓 | 持仓变化 | 持仓变化 | 对比 | | | RB2510 | 1,323,132 | 1,302,920 ...