1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position in steel products [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher, with rebar rising and hot-rolled coils falling during the night session. The supply of the five major steel products decreased by 2.1% week-on-week, total inventory dropped by 0.67%, and weekly consumption fell by 5.4%. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased this week, inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot-rolled coils increased, and the apparent demand for both declined. With blast furnace production cuts and maintenance in some areas, partial enterprise production cuts, and full losses in electric arc furnace steel, the supply of crude steel is expected to continue to shrink, while the demand side remains weak. The pressure level for the main rebar contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000. It is recommended to continue holding long positions around 3000 and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher, with rebar rising and hot-rolled coils falling during the night session [1] Important Information - In October, the bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.9%. The new loans in October may be less than the same period last year, and the slowdown in government bond issuance may lead to a decline in social financing. The supply of the five major steel products this week was 8.5674 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 185,500 tons, a decline of 2.1%; the total inventory was 15.0357 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 101,900 tons, a decline of 0.67%; the weekly consumption was 8.6693 million tons, a decline of 5.4%, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 7.2% month-on-month, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.2% month-on-month [1] Market Logic - The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased this week, inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot-rolled coils increased, and the apparent demand for both declined. With blast furnace production cuts and maintenance in Shanxi, Tangshan in Hebei and other places, partial enterprise production cuts, and full losses in electric arc furnace steel, the supply of crude steel is expected to continue to shrink, while the demand side remains weak. The pressure level for the main rebar contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000 [1] Trading Strategy - The 3000 level of rebar still has strong resilience. It is recommended to continue holding long positions around 3000 and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1]

Price and Basis - Prices are stabilizing with a slight upward trend, while the hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot market shows some strength, and the rebar price difference is expanding [1] - Absolute prices have rebounded, but the basis remains weak; rebar futures have turned to a premium over spot prices, while HRC futures maintain a discount [1] - The price difference between HRC and rebar has expanded again [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production has slightly decreased due to environmental inspections, but overall supply remains high; iron ore shipments in June have increased, leading to a slight accumulation in iron ore inventory [1] - The current profit ranking from high to low is: steel billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [1] - Rebar prices have fallen below both electric arc furnace and blast furnace cost lines, resulting in a noticeable reduction in rebar production [1] Supply - Overall production is showing a slight decline, with a small increase in current production levels; iron output increased by 0.6 million tons to 2.422 million tons [1] - The production of the five major steel products increased by 9.66 million tons to 8.68 million tons, with rebar production rising by 4.6 million tons to 2.122 million tons [1] - High-frequency production data shows a cumulative year-on-year increase of 19 million tons in iron element production from January to June, with a daily average increase of 100,000 tons [1] Demand - Demand for the five major steel products has slightly decreased, with rebar demand showing a significant decline, while HRC demand remains high [2] - Total demand for steel has slightly increased year-on-year, with domestic demand declining and external demand rising [2] - The overall demand remains high despite a peak and subsequent decline in demand [2] Inventory - Steel inventory is nearing a turning point for accumulation, with recent low-level accumulation showing some fluctuations [2] - Current inventory of the five major steel products has decreased by 15.7 million tons to 13.39 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 7 million tons to 5.51 million tons [2] Market Outlook - Black metal prices are stabilizing with a slight upward shift; futures prices have shown significant strength, while the basis remains weak [3] - The current market is still in the off-season for steel, with demand unlikely to improve marginally [3] - The strategy for the upcoming week includes holding short positions, with specific price levels for HRC and rebar contracts to consider for shorting [4]

上周策略：观望 本周策略：单边观望，跨月正套持有 供给：铁元素产量持续两周回落。本周日均铁水-1.17万吨至243.6万吨；废钢日耗+0.25至54.8万吨。本 期五大材产量-4万吨至872.44万吨；螺纹钢产量+5万吨至231.5万吨；热卷产量-6.3万吨至305.7万吨。而 表外材产量环比上升。高频产量数据：1-4月铁元素产量累计同比增长1150万吨，日均增长近10万吨。 最大增幅在4月，单月同比增长700万吨。考虑去年5-6月高基数，预计上半年铁元素产量同比增长1600 万吨。分品种材看，其他材利润好于螺纹和热卷，分流铁水压力。4月五大材周产量875万吨，低于周均 表需926万吨。其中螺纹钢4月周均产量230万吨，低于表需250万吨。热卷周均表需317万吨，低于表需 324万吨。 需求：5月份五大材表需环比回落。本周五大材表需-9万吨至905万吨。螺纹钢表需-13万吨至247万吨； 热卷表需-16.5万吨至313万吨。当前总表需环比回落，其中冷系钢材表需和库存走弱。分行业看，内需 面临淡季需求回落，钢材直接出口维持高位，钢材+钢坯净出口日均同比增长5万吨，钢材直接出口维 持高位消化高产量压力。制造业订单 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: May 15, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Currently, the production of the top five steel products has slightly declined, inventory has increased, and the demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils has fallen from its peak. However, there are multi-dimensional signs of recovery in the real estate market, and the steel demand in the automotive, shipbuilding, and machinery industries generally maintains a high growth trend. With the easing of Sino-US tariffs and increased expectations of export rush, the downstream demand outlook has improved. In the short term, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to show a slightly stronger and volatile trend [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On May 14, the main futures contracts 2510 of rebar and hot-rolled coils opened low and closed high, rising significantly, while the main futures contract 2507 of stainless steel fluctuated upward. The KDJ indicators of the daily lines of rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts diverged upward, and the MACD red bars of the daily lines of both contracts expanded [5][8] - The trading data of the main steel futures contracts on May 14 are as follows: - RB2510: The previous closing price was 3,079 yuan/ton, the opening price was 3,084 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3,133 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,067 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,127 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.23%. The trading volume was 2,134,942 lots, the open interest was 2,111,525 lots, a decrease of 39,651 lots, and the capital inflow/outflow was -0.15 billion yuan [5] - HC2510: The previous closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, the opening price was 3,220 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3,269 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,207 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,267 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.27%. The trading volume was 801,521 lots, the open interest was 1,351,894 lots, a decrease of 2,694 lots, and the capital inflow/outflow was 0.43 billion yuan [5] - SS2507: The previous closing price was 12,930 yuan/ton, the opening price was 12,930 yuan/ton, the highest price was 13,120 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 12,910 yuan/ton, the closing price was 13,080 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.16%. The trading volume was 142,909 lots, the open interest was 131,758 lots, an increase of 6,744 lots, and the capital inflow/outflow was 0.75 billion yuan [5] - The spot market prices and changes of rebar and hot-rolled coils on May 14 are as follows: - Rebar (HRB400E: 20mm): The prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and other places were 3,250 yuan/ton, 3,240 yuan/ton, 3,200 yuan/ton, etc., with price increases ranging from 10 to 40 yuan/ton [8] - Hot-rolled coils (4.75mm): The prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and other places were 3,320 yuan/ton, 3,330 yuan/ton, 3,330 yuan/ton, etc., with price increases ranging from 0 to 60 yuan/ton [8] 2. Industry News - According to data released by the China Iron and Steel Association, in early May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.05 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.205 million tons, a 0.2% increase in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.9 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.99 million tons, a 1.6% increase in daily output; and 20.83 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 2.083 million tons, an 8.4% decrease in daily output. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 16.06 million tons, a 5.0% increase from the previous ten-day period, a 29.8% increase from the beginning of the year, a 0.1% increase from the same period last month, a 1.4% decrease from the same period last year, and an 8.8% decrease from the same period the year before last [11] - The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce stated that strategic mineral export control is related to national security and development interests. To prevent the illegal outflow of strategic minerals, it is necessary to strengthen control over all links of the production and supply chain, starting from the source and involving all aspects from mining to export. All departments need to cooperate in their work, strengthen daily supervision, and promptly detect potential risks. Local governments should implement their regulatory responsibilities, comprehensively investigate relevant business entities in their regions, understand the production, operation, and flow of strategic minerals, and guide local enterprises to improve their compliance awareness and capabilities [11] - According to Mysteel, an alloy plant in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, recently reduced production at two 33,000KVA ferrosilicon-manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces, expected to affect the daily output by about 400 tons. A large ferrosilicon-manganese enterprise in Chongqing shut down two submerged arc furnaces starting from 12:00 on May 12, 2025, with the resumption time to be determined, affecting a daily output of 400 tons [11] - The UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) recommended on Tuesday that country-specific quota caps should be imposed on certain categories of steel imported into the UK to protect the UK's steel production industry. The quota cap measures will take effect on October 1 this year [11] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major markets, the weekly production of the top five steel products, the steel mill inventory of the top five steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major cities, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, and the apparent consumption of the top five steel products [14][16][19]