Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing a rally despite overall market fluctuations, driven by environmental regulations and improving demand conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The steel ETF (515210) rose by 1.67%, leading the market with a trading volume of nearly 104 million yuan [1]. - Key holdings such as Lingang Co. and Liugang Co. have seen consecutive trading limits, while other stocks like Shougang Co. and Hesteel Co. increased by nearly 5% [1]. - Since September 2, 2024, the steel ETF has gained 31.33%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Tangshan has intensified its environmental production restrictions, with rumors of measures from July 4 to July 15 [3]. - The China Iron and Steel Association is set to hold a meeting, although the agenda remains undisclosed [3]. - Steel inventory among key enterprises increased by 420,000 tons to 16.21 million tons in mid-June, but decreased by 140,000 tons compared to the same period last month [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The operating rate of H-beam steel producers rose by 3.23 percentage points to 70.97%, with capacity utilization increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 56.83% [4]. - Demand is expected to improve marginally due to supportive real estate policies and stable infrastructure investment, while supply constraints are becoming more pronounced [4]. - The profit margin for the black metal smelting and rolling industry reached 31.69 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, marking a return to profitability year-on-year [4]. - The comprehensive gross profit for the steel industry was 281 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.45% [4].

经历上半年的价格下跌，目前的钢材价格估值已处于历史低位，下半年钢价进一步下跌的空间已经有 限。若钢铁产量调控落地，行业利润有望修复。 中信建投证券表示，当前钢铁市场处于"低库存、低价格、低需求、高供应弹性"的弱平衡状态，后续走 势取决于减产力度与政策落地速度的博弈。假设今年减产5000万吨，则全年粗钢产量9.55亿吨，6-12月 份累计减产4400万吨，单月减产700万吨以上，行业由亏损转盈利，吨毛利有望修复到400元左右。假设 实际减产2000万吨，则全年粗钢产量9.85亿吨，行业预计小幅改善，利润略有扩张，吨毛利有望维持在 100元～200元左右。 每经编辑｜彭水萍 午后，钢铁板块异动拉升，钢铁ETF（515210）一度涨超3.5%，成交额持续放大。 消息面，7月1日，中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，会议强调要纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦 重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 此前，3月20日，中信特钢董事长钱刚在公司业绩说明会上透露，国内钢铁行业正在筹划成立相关基 金，建立落后钢铁产能退出的补偿机制。钢铁供给侧改革预期再起。 另外，消息面上，唐山环保减 ...

钢铁板块盘中领涨，钢铁ETF（515210）涨超1.5%，产业升级或支撑钢价企稳。 2025年，钢铁行业在"十四五"规划收官之年的背景下，加速调整供需结构，推动产业升级。近期， 新疆八一钢铁、大理大钢钢铁等企业纷纷进行技术改造和产能置换，显示出行业在提质增效方面的积极 努力。 没有股票账户的投资者可以通过钢铁ETF的联接基金（008190）把握钢铁板块的投资机会。 注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化 而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金 业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨 慎。 每日经济新闻 从投资角度来看，钢铁行业在经历深度调整后，供需关系逐步改善。国盛证券报告指出，2025年4 月，钢铁行业相关板块表现稳健，此外，生态环境部明确钢铁行业碳排放管理要求，推动行业向绿色低 碳转型，这为钢铁行业的长期发展提供了新的动力。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪中证钢铁指数，涵盖了钢铁行业的主要上市公司，为投资者提供了一键布 局钢铁行业的便捷工具，能够有效捕捉行 ...