10月27日午盘，钢铁产业放量大涨，全市场唯一钢铁ETF（515210）涨幅超2%，资金抢筹布局，近5日净流入超1亿元。 相关机构表示，钢铁基本面在2025年本身就有一个边际改善的趋势，包括需求拖累减弱、成本端价格下行，再叠加"反内卷"政策，钢铁行业面临多重利好。 总结来说，这一轮"反内卷"政策的必要性较强，并且高层的重视程度较高，如果后续相关行业的供需格局有所改善，相关行业的弹性和空间都是比较可观 的。 供给与成本有望共振，关注钢铁投资机会 供给方面，钢铁产能产量退出预期提升。基本面上，随着钢厂盈利改善，生产动力增强，近期铁水维持高位运行，目前供给减量偏弱。9月22日《钢铁行业 稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》公开，明确提到要继续实施产量压减政策，按照支持先进企业发展、倒逼落后低效产能退出的原则落实年度产量调控任 务，促进供需动态平衡，为钢铁行业限产提出了较为实质性的目标。 预计行业将加速进入优胜劣汰阶段。相关部门将推进钢铁企业分级分类管理，将全面开展钢铁企业分类评价，按照引领型规范企业、规范企业、不符合规范 条件企业实施三级管理，引导资源要素向优势企业集聚。预计2026年相关政策将逐步落地，落后产 ...

Group 1 - The steel industry is benefiting from favorable policies such as the elimination of outdated production capacity and regulation of low-price dumping [1] - Anticipation of environmental production restrictions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region due to the upcoming military parade may lead to significant supply contraction, similar to experiences in 2015 [1] - High-end steel products are expected to benefit from the energy cycle and substitution trends, while the ordinary steel sector shows potential for recovery due to favorable policies and reasonable profitability [1] Group 2 - Investors are encouraged to consider the only steel industry ETF (515210) for exposure to steel plate, special steel, and metal products [1] - For those without stock accounts, a linked fund (008190) is available to capture investment opportunities in the steel sector [1]

Group 1 - The steel sector continues to rise, with the steel ETF (515210) increasing by nearly 3%, and a net inflow of over 1.4 billion yuan in the past 10 days, bringing the current scale to over 3.3 billion yuan, indicating strong liquidity [1] - According to the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, from January to June 2025, key steel enterprises reported operating income of 29,985 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.79%; operating costs were 28,055 billion yuan, down 6.83% year-on-year; total profit reached 592 billion yuan, up 63.26% year-on-year; the sales profit margin was 1.97%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year; and the loss ratio was 23.86%, down 18.19 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Dongfang Securities indicates that the steel sector has mid-term investment value supported by fundamentals in the context of "anti-involution," with expectations of marginal changes in supply side, cost, and profit release, presenting three mid-term favorable logics [1] Group 2 - Investors without stock accounts can seize investment opportunities in the steel sector through the steel ETF's linked fund (008190) [2]

Group 1 - The steel sector is experiencing significant gains, with the only ETF tracking the industry, Steel ETF (515210), rising by 3.8% [1][4] - Historical performance shows that Steel ETF (515210) has increased by 11.84% over the past 15 days, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [5] - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to benefit suppliers of hydropower equipment and core equipment for power grid projects [3][4] Group 2 - The Steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index, which includes publicly listed companies involved in steel manufacturing, processing, and related services, reflecting the overall performance of the steel industry [4] - Investors interested in the steel sector can consider the Steel ETF (515210) or its connecting fund (008190) for investment opportunities [7]

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" movement differs from the previous supply-side reform, as it encompasses a broader range of industries beyond traditional manufacturing such as steel, cement, and coal [1] - Recent policies and initiatives from the Central Financial Committee and various industries have elevated market awareness of "anti-involution," leading to improved performance in related ETFs like steel ETF (515210) and coal ETF (515220) [1] - The steel industry has faced significant demand-side pressures, particularly from the real estate sector, with demand for steel in real estate dropping from 377 million tons in 2020 to an estimated 215 million tons in 2024, a decline of approximately 43% [2] Group 2 - The steel industry has been implementing self-imposed production limits, with the China Iron and Steel Association warning six companies about negative cash flow while still increasing crude steel output [3] - There are signs of marginal improvement in the steel industry's fundamentals, as the decline in real estate demand has lessened its impact on overall steel demand [4] - Cost pressures on the steel industry are easing, with coal prices declining and expectations of increased iron ore supply leading to potential price reductions, which could benefit steel production costs [5] Group 3 - If the steel industry can reduce crude steel output by 30 million tons by 2025, it is projected that profit per ton of steel could increase by 229 yuan, effectively doubling current profitability [5] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies and the anticipated improvements in demand and cost structures suggest a more favorable competitive landscape for the steel industry [5] - Investors can consider the steel ETF (515210) as a means to gain exposure to the steel sector, which tracks the China Steel Index and includes companies across the steel supply chain [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing a rally despite overall market fluctuations, driven by environmental regulations and improving demand conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The steel ETF (515210) rose by 1.67%, leading the market with a trading volume of nearly 104 million yuan [1]. - Key holdings such as Lingang Co. and Liugang Co. have seen consecutive trading limits, while other stocks like Shougang Co. and Hesteel Co. increased by nearly 5% [1]. - Since September 2, 2024, the steel ETF has gained 31.33%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Tangshan has intensified its environmental production restrictions, with rumors of measures from July 4 to July 15 [3]. - The China Iron and Steel Association is set to hold a meeting, although the agenda remains undisclosed [3]. - Steel inventory among key enterprises increased by 420,000 tons to 16.21 million tons in mid-June, but decreased by 140,000 tons compared to the same period last month [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The operating rate of H-beam steel producers rose by 3.23 percentage points to 70.97%, with capacity utilization increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 56.83% [4]. - Demand is expected to improve marginally due to supportive real estate policies and stable infrastructure investment, while supply constraints are becoming more pronounced [4]. - The profit margin for the black metal smelting and rolling industry reached 31.69 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, marking a return to profitability year-on-year [4]. - The comprehensive gross profit for the steel industry was 281 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.45% [4].

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a significant rise, with the steel ETF (515210) increasing by over 3.5% amid expanding trading volume [1] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market and to address low-price competition among enterprises, promoting the exit of outdated production capacity [1] - A compensation mechanism for the exit of outdated steel production capacity is being planned by the domestic steel industry, as revealed by the chairman of CITIC Special Steel [1] Group 2 - The steel industry is facing challenges due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector, limited infrastructure investment, and increased pressure on exports [2] - Supply-side adjustments may occur to alleviate market supply-demand imbalances, with potential government policies reinforcing supply contraction [2] - Current steel prices are at historical lows, and further declines in prices are limited; if production adjustments are implemented, industry profits may recover [2] Group 3 - CITIC Construction Securities indicates that the steel market is in a weak equilibrium state characterized by low inventory, low prices, low demand, and high supply elasticity [2] - If a production cut of 50 million tons occurs, the annual crude steel output would be 955 million tons, leading to a potential recovery in industry profits [2] - Under a scenario of a 20 million ton reduction, the crude steel output would be 985 million tons, with slight profit expansion expected [2] Group 4 - Investors are encouraged to consider the steel ETF (515210) for exposure to the steel sector, including steel plates, special steel, and metal products [3]

Group 1 - The steel sector is leading the market with the steel ETF (515210) rising over 1.5%, supported by industrial upgrades that may stabilize steel prices [1] - By 2025, the steel industry is expected to accelerate supply-demand structure adjustments and promote industrial upgrades as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Companies like Xinjiang Bayi Steel and Dali Dasteel are actively engaging in technological renovations and capacity replacements, indicating a positive effort towards quality improvement and efficiency [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand relationship in the steel industry is gradually improving after deep adjustments, with a stable performance noted in April 2025 [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has clarified carbon emission management requirements for the steel industry, driving a transition towards green and low-carbon development, providing new momentum for long-term growth [1] - The steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index, covering major listed companies in the steel sector, offering investors a convenient tool to capture investment opportunities arising from industry recovery and transformation [1] Group 3 - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities in the steel sector through the steel ETF's connecting fund (008190) [2]