公司报告 | 半年报点评 鸿路钢构（002541） 证券研究报告 毛利率下滑拖累吨净利，重视钢铁反内卷带来的业绩弹性 收入小幅增长，看好钢铁反内卷对企业盈利的边际修复 鸿路钢构 25H1 实现收入 105.5 亿，同比+2.17%，实现归母净利润为 2.88 亿，同比-32.7%，扣非净利润为 2.38 亿，同比+0.88%，非经常性损益为 0.5 亿，同比减少 1.42 亿；Q2 单季来看，公司实现收入 57.35 亿，同比-2.78%， 归母、扣非净利润分别为 1.51、1.23 亿，同比-32.61%、-17%。我们仍看好 钢铁反内卷有望带动钢价上行，或对企业的加工费及吨净利带来边际修复。 考虑到上半年压力较大，我们下调公司盈利预测，预计公司 25-27 年归母 净利润为 8.1、9.4、10.9 亿（前值为 8.7、10.2、12.2 亿），对应 PE 为 15、 13、11 倍，维持"买入"评级。 钢结构制造转型钢结构智造，布局多项专业化产线 分产品看，25H1 公司 H 型钢、箱型十字型柱、管类、桁架、次构件、其 他分别实现收入 58、20、6.6、4.1、13.6、3.3 亿，同比+1.5%、- ...

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the steel industry in China, particularly regarding supply-side reforms and environmental regulations [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Environmental Regulations**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment have strengthened environmental regulations, indicating stricter constraints for the steel industry [1][3]. 2. **Ultra-Low Emission Transformation**: As of April 20, 2025, 189 steel companies have completed or partially completed ultra-low emission transformations, covering a capacity of approximately 760 million tons, with a completion rate of 76%. The goal is to reach 80% completion by the end of 2025 [1][4][8]. 3. **Investment and Costs**: The investment for ultra-low emission transformation is about 470 yuan per ton of steel, with an environmental operating cost of 218 yuan per ton. Comprehensive energy consumption has decreased by 0.52% year-on-year [8][12]. 4. **Demand and Supply Imbalance**: Since 2022, the steel industry has faced weak demand, with apparent consumption of crude steel declining by 10.1%, while production only decreased by 2.7%, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [1][9]. 5. **Export Challenges**: Steel companies are attempting to alleviate domestic oversupply through exports, which are projected to increase by 64% from 2022 to 2024. However, U.S. tariffs and anti-dumping investigations pose significant challenges [1][10][11]. 6. **Profitability Outlook**: Current profit margins for steel are recovering, with profits per ton reaching 100-200 yuan. If supply-side reforms are successfully implemented, profits could further increase [2][5]. 7. **Policy Changes**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has mandated that by 2026, all regulated enterprises must complete full-process ultra-low emission transformations, with penalties for non-compliance [2][7]. Additional Important Content 1. **Electric Arc Furnace Development**: Currently, electric arc furnace capacity in China is only 10%, significantly lower than in developed countries. The goal is to increase this to over 15% by 2025 [2][13]. 2. **Performance of Listed Companies**: Many listed companies have made significant progress in ultra-low emission transformations, particularly state-owned enterprises. However, private enterprises face challenges in completing these transformations [2][6][15]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: Despite concerns about the steel sector, the current market sentiment may be overly pessimistic, presenting a potential opportunity for investment in the sector [5][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments discussed during the conference call regarding the steel industry, highlighting the ongoing transformations, regulatory pressures, and market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing pressure from weak demand and high costs, leading to a focus on policy-driven capacity optimization to alleviate profitability issues [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Steel Index has rebounded by 11.86% since June 23, while the Wind All A Index increased by 6.53% during the same period [1]. - In July, the Shenyin Wanguo Steel Index rose by 9.31%, marking the largest monthly increase since October 2024, with 21 stocks in the steel sector rising over 10% [4]. Group 2: Company Earnings Forecasts - Eight steel companies have released their mid-year earnings forecasts, with Shougang Co. expecting a net profit of 642 to 672 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.62% to 70.22% [3]. - Shandong Steel anticipates a net profit of 12.71 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 98.1 million yuan [2]. - Fushun Special Steel and Hangang Co. are expected to report losses, with Fushun projecting a loss of 260 to 300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 214.06% to 231.6% [3]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The steel industry has been in a downward cycle for four years, with approximately 30% of steel companies still reporting losses as of the latest financial reports [5]. - The demand for steel, particularly from the real estate sector, has significantly declined, with demand dropping from 377 million tons in March 2020 to 215 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 42.9% [5]. - The focus on cost reduction has become prevalent among steel companies, with raw material prices significantly impacting profitability [5]. Group 4: Policy and Structural Changes - Recent central government meetings have emphasized the need to eliminate outdated production capacity, strengthening expectations for supply contraction in the steel industry [4][6]. - The current round of "anti-involution" policies aims to optimize supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on differentiated control of production based on efficiency and environmental standards [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][23]. Core Views - The company has seen a year-on-year increase in both order volume and processing volume, highlighting investment opportunities in the steel structure sector at a relatively low point [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the supply-side reforms in the steel industry, which may lead to improved profitability as steel prices rise [3]. - The company is focusing on intelligent transformation and has invested in advanced manufacturing technologies, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Orders and Production - In the first half of 2025, the company signed new orders totaling 14.38 billion, a slight increase of 0.17% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, new orders amounted to 7.328 billion, a decrease of 0.85% year-on-year. The steel structure production for the first half of 2025 reached 2.3625 million tons, up 12.19% year-on-year, with Q2 production at 1.3134 million tons, an increase of 10.56% year-on-year [1][2]. Pricing and Market Trends - The company has seen an increase in the number of large contracts (over 10,000 tons) from 6 in Q2 2021 to 18 in Q2 2025. The average price per ton for new orders in Q2 2025 ranged from 4,535 to 8,494 yuan, indicating a 5.11% increase in average price compared to Q2 2024 [2]. - Steel prices have stabilized between 3,160 and 3,370 yuan per ton, with an average of 3,233 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.2% [2]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 868.65 million, 1,015.91 million, and 1,222.03 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.14, 12.09, and 10.05 [5][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 21,514.36 million in 2024 to 33,629.99 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.66% [5]. Intelligent Transformation - The company has established a dedicated research team for intelligent manufacturing and has invested in various advanced production technologies, including automated cutting and welding equipment, which are expected to enhance production efficiency [4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the coking coal market, influenced by multiple factors including steel mill profits, environmental policies, mining accidents, and seasonal demand [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - Recent mining accidents in Shanxi and the entry of inspection teams have strengthened the upward momentum for coking coal prices, with the September contract dropping to a low of 700 RMB/ton providing a rebound foundation [1]. - The cost of coking coal futures is determined by several core variables including spot purchase price, transportation costs, storage fees, and taxes, which are affected by delivery location and quality differences [1][4]. - Seasonal demand impacts are noted, with specific attention to the Chinese New Year and political meetings in Q1, policy and safety production in Q2, peak season expectations in Q3, and winter storage and production demand in Q4 [1][5]. - The recent production restrictions in Tangshan have a short-term impact on pig iron output but are expected to end by mid-July, with limited overall effect on national output [1][6][7]. - The West Mangdu iron mine is expected to have a limited impact on iron ore prices, with shipments starting at the end of the year and a projected annual output of 60 million tons by next year [1][8]. - Steel mill profits are not effectively transmitted to coking coal companies due to the higher bargaining power of steel and coking plants, leading to cost pressures being passed downstream [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - The coking coal futures market has experienced significant price fluctuations, with a notable rebound starting on June 4, attributed to improved steel mill profits and external geopolitical factors [2][3]. - The long-term pricing for coking coal remains stable in Q3, with no significant changes despite market rebounds, indicating a speculative atmosphere [2][11]. - Current inventory levels in Shanxi are stable, with no signs of deterioration, although future supply increases may lead to inventory build-up [15]. - Approximately 20% of Shanxi coal enterprises are currently operating at a loss, but this is manageable and does not significantly hinder production recovery [16]. - The competition between Mongolian coal and Shanxi coking coal exists, with steel mills adjusting their coal mix based on availability and pricing [19][20]. - The future market landscape for imported steelmaking raw materials from Australia, Russia, and Mongolia indicates that Mongolian materials are more cost-effective compared to Australian options [21]. Conclusion - The coking coal market is currently influenced by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, regulatory impacts, and geopolitical factors, with a cautious outlook on price stability and production recovery in the near term [1][2][9][11].

Industry Overview - The steel sector experienced a sudden surge on July 2, with Chongqing Steel (601005) seeing a dramatic increase of over 130% during trading, closing up 91.11% [1] - Other steel stocks also rose significantly, including China Iron Titanium (20.97%), Ansteel (12.73%), China Oriental Group (11.45%), and Maanshan Steel (3.59%) [1] - The central government's emphasis on promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price competition is expected to impact the steel industry positively [1] Supply-Side Reforms - Market interpretations suggest that expectations for supply-side reforms in the steel industry have strengthened [2] - Reports indicate that approximately half of the steel mills in Tangshan have received notifications regarding production cuts, which could reduce daily sinter production by 30,000 tons [2] - The steel industry faces challenges from a sluggish real estate market, limited infrastructure investment, and increased export pressure [2] Financial Performance - The steel industry showed signs of recovery in profitability during the first half of 2025, with total revenue for black metal smelting and rolling processing reaching 31,364.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0% [2] - The total profit for the industry turned positive, amounting to 316.9 billion yuan, indicating a recovery from previous losses [2] Cost and Profitability - Major raw material prices have declined, leading to a noticeable reduction in steel mills' costs, which has supported profit recovery [3] - Future supply adjustments could further suppress raw material prices and improve the supply-demand relationship, potentially enhancing steel profits [3] Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the steel industry is likely to see a structural improvement, with some companies currently undervalued, presenting investment opportunities [3] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control are expected to benefit from valuation recovery [3] Company-Specific Developments - Ansteel (00347) has developed a new composite pipe technology for deep-sea oil and gas transport, enhancing its competitive position [4] - Maanshan Steel (00323) reported a revenue of approximately 19.425 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%, but managed to narrow its net loss significantly [4] - Chongqing Steel (01053) reported a revenue of 6.614 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with a net loss reduction of 64.82% compared to the previous year [5] - China Oriental Group (00581) reported sales of approximately 1.8 million tons of steel products in Q1 2025, with a gross profit margin of 100-150 yuan per ton [5]

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a sudden surge on July 2, with notable stocks like Chongqing Steel and Liugang Co. hitting the daily limit, and the steel ETF rising by 3.69% [1][2] - Hong Kong steel stocks showed even stronger gains, with Chongqing Steel's stock price increasing by over 90%, and Angang Steel rising by more than 57% at one point [1] - The rise in steel stocks is attributed to expectations of supply-side reforms in the steel industry, following a recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee that emphasized the need for orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The steel industry is showing signs of recovery in profitability in the first half of 2025, with total revenue for the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry reaching 31,364.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0% [3] - The industry's total profit turned positive with a total profit of 316.9 billion yuan, indicating a shift from loss to profit [3]

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a significant rise, with the steel ETF (515210) increasing by over 3.5% amid expanding trading volume [1] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market and to address low-price competition among enterprises, promoting the exit of outdated production capacity [1] - A compensation mechanism for the exit of outdated steel production capacity is being planned by the domestic steel industry, as revealed by the chairman of CITIC Special Steel [1] Group 2 - The steel industry is facing challenges due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector, limited infrastructure investment, and increased pressure on exports [2] - Supply-side adjustments may occur to alleviate market supply-demand imbalances, with potential government policies reinforcing supply contraction [2] - Current steel prices are at historical lows, and further declines in prices are limited; if production adjustments are implemented, industry profits may recover [2] Group 3 - CITIC Construction Securities indicates that the steel market is in a weak equilibrium state characterized by low inventory, low prices, low demand, and high supply elasticity [2] - If a production cut of 50 million tons occurs, the annual crude steel output would be 955 million tons, leading to a potential recovery in industry profits [2] - Under a scenario of a 20 million ton reduction, the crude steel output would be 985 million tons, with slight profit expansion expected [2] Group 4 - Investors are encouraged to consider the steel ETF (515210) for exposure to the steel sector, including steel plates, special steel, and metal products [3]