商 品 研 究 2026 年 03 月 03 日 铂：行情走势较为纠结 钯：预计盘整 产 业 服 务 研 究 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 626. 50 | | 0. 44% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 606. 35 | | -0. 60% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2318. 60 | | -2. 42% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2301. 40 | | -3. 13% | | | | 包金期货2606 | 463. 65 | | -0. 26% | | | | 人民币现货包金 | 433.00 | | 2. 12% | | | 价格 | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.801. 50 | | -1. 45% | | | | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | 1,774.50 | | -0. 56% | | | | | 昨日成交 | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Platinum is in continuous shock consolidation, and palladium is in narrow - range shock [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 537.50 with a - 1.39% change, gold - exchange platinum at 549.47 with a 1.01% change. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 429.05 with a - 2.08% change, RMB spot palladium at 419.00 with a - 2.56% change [2] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: Guangdong platinum trading volume was 6,135 kg (down 7,342 kg), NYMEX platinum was 18,004 kg (down 12,597 kg). Guangdong palladium trading volume was 3,099 kg (down 3,052 kg), NYMEX palladium was 10,569 kg (down 3,611 kg) [2] - **ETF and Inventory Data**: Platinum ETF holdings were 3,279,592 ounces (unchanged), palladium ETF holdings were 1,200,822 ounces (unchanged). NYMEX platinum inventory was 583,369 ounces (down 63,072 ounces) [2] - **Spread Data**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was 11.97 (down 10.02), Guangdong platinum 2606 to 2610 spread was 11.50 (down 2.90). RMB spot palladium to PD2606 spread was - 10.05 (up 14.45), Guangdong palladium 2606 to 2610 spread was 4.90 (down 0.05) [2] - **Exchange - Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 96.86 with a - 0.78% change, USD/CNY (spot) was 6.92 with a - 0.24% change, USD/CNH (spot) was 6.92 with a - 0.20% change, USD/CNY (6M forward) was 6.83 with a - 0.45% change [2] Macro and Industry News - **Policy Statements**: Trump believes the interest rate should be 2 percentage points lower. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts and inflation [5] - **Economic Data**: US December retail sales month - on - month rate was 0%, lower than the forecast of 0.4%. ADP report shows US private - sector employment increased by 6,500 per week in the four weeks to January 24 [5] - **Geopolitical News**: Negotiations on Greenland are in the early stage, and talks will be held in the coming months. There are developments in the US - Iran nuclear - issue negotiation [5] - **Corporate News**: Alphabet plans to issue bonds to raise about £4.5 billion and over 3 billion Swiss francs [5] - **Domestic Policy**: Li Qiang emphasizes the rational development of rare - earth resources and key - core technology research [5] Trend Strength - Platinum trend strength is 0, palladium trend strength is 0. The range of trend strength is [- 2,2], with - 2 being most bearish and 2 being most bullish [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum is rated as weak, and palladium is also rated as weak [3] Core View - Platinum and palladium prices may remain low for some time due to weak high - frequency data and the shadow over the precious metals sector. They lack the basis for a rapid rebound to previous highs. Palladium shows stronger resilience during the pullback [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading (Price, Spread, Capital, and Position) - **Trading Volume and Position**: At the close of this week, the total position of Guangbo was 27,444 lots with a trading volume of 111,512 lots; the total position of Guangpalladium was 9,921 lots with a trading volume of 56,422 lots. Both trading volume and position decreased compared to last week. The trading volume and position of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts [7] - **Price Structure**: This week, the monthly structure of platinum and palladium switched to B structure [7] - **Platinum - Palladium Ratio**: As the market continued to decline this week, the platinum - palladium ratio continued to converge. The foreign - exchange platinum - palladium ratio was 1.21, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum - palladium ratio was 1.23 at the close on Friday. One can consider a long - platinum and short - palladium strategy when the ratio is between 1.15 - 1.2 [12] - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread**: For platinum, the spread between London spot platinum and New York platinum main contract was inverted on Friday, with the London price higher. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract fluctuated sharply. For palladium, the spread between London spot palladium and New York palladium main contract was inverted before Friday and returned to a state where New York was at a premium on Friday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract had an average value of $35.4 per ounce this week [15][19] - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: - Platinum spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 6.4 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 22.0 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [21] - Palladium spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 4.9 yuan per gram, and the spread is 24.5 yuan per gram, with a profit window of 13.6 yuan per gram [23] - Platinum near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 6.8 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 14.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [25] - Palladium near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 5.5 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 5.0 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [27] - Platinum internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 63.8 yuan per gram, and the spread is 39.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [29] - Palladium internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 53.0 yuan per gram, and the spread is 29.6 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [31] - Platinum import parity calculation: The cost is 58.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 71.2 yuan per gram, with a profit window of 12.5 yuan per gram [33] - Palladium import parity calculation: The cost is 49.9 yuan per gram, and the spread is 40.9 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [35] - **Recycling Spread**: The average platinum recycling discount this week was at - 88 yuan per gram, and the palladium recycling discount widened rapidly to around - 150 yuan per gram during the week [38] - **ETF Holdings**: This week, platinum ETF holdings decreased by 2.63 tons (about 84,400 ounces), and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.68 tons (about 21,900 ounces). The continuous outflow of platinum and palladium ETFs does not currently indicate a trend reversal, and the ETF flow needs to be closely monitored in the future [40] Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Discount Rate**: In the past three months, the overseas forward markets for platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the depth of the forward discount for platinum and palladium has diverged. Platinum's forward discount has continued to significantly converge, with the full - term limit falling within 6% on Friday. Palladium's forward discount has risen rapidly, reaching around 4% on Friday [45] - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: - Platinum: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory further declined to 646,400 ounces (about 20.11 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts decreased to 50.5% on Friday [46] - Palladium: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory slightly decreased to 190,900 ounces (about 5.94 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts rapidly increased to 77.7% [49] - **China's Import - Export Data**: - Platinum: Since September 2025, platinum exports have soared, and imports and net inflows have diverged. The cumulative net inflow since January 2020 has been 553.88 tons. In December, both import and export amounts increased, with imports of 5.57 tons, exports of 2.86 tons, and a net inflow of only 2.71 tons. January 2026 data is not yet available [57] - Palladium: Since 2020, there has been almost no palladium export, and it is in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 170.74 tons. In December, the import amount further increased to 5.68 tons, and the net inflow was 5.63 tons. January 2026 data is not yet available [57] - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: A negative supply - demand balance means that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, indicating that the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices are more willing to buy. This week, the average supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was - 5.5 kg, and it was - 50 kg on Friday. For palladium, the supply - demand balance was below - 150 kg on two days this week [58][59][60]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Platinum: Be vigilant about panic selling. - Palladium: Follow the weak adjustment [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Information**: - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 630.55 with a -11.70% decline; gold - exchange platinum at 638.39 with a -9.31% decline; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) at 2178.20 with a -17.40% decline; London spot platinum (previous day) at 2180.80 with a -17.38% decline. - Palladium futures 2606 closed at 464.05 with a -11.88% decline; RMB spot palladium at 484.00 with a -3.78% decline; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) at 1701.00 with a -16.41% decline; London spot palladium (previous day) at 1711.00 with a -14.60% decline [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position Information**: - Guangdong platinum trading volume was 41,775 kg (up 12,277 kg from the previous day), and the position was 33,860 kg (down 2,505 kg). NYMEX platinum trading volume was 88,712 kg (up 24,026 kg), and the position was 99,945 kg (down 1,281 kg). - Guangdong palladium trading volume was 20,005 kg (up 2,817 kg), and the position was 12,615 kg (down 518 kg). NYMEX palladium trading volume was 36,973 kg (up 7,101 kg), and the position was 49,380 kg (down 2,333 kg) [1]. - **ETF and Inventory Information**: - Platinum ETF position (ounces, previous day) was 3,364,010 (up 39,842). Palladium ETF position (ounces, previous day) was 1,222,741 (up 2,231). - NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 655,182 (unchanged), and NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 224,021 (unchanged) [1]. - **Spread Information**: - PT9995 to PT2606 spread was 7.84 (up 18.04 from the previous day); Guangdong platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 5.05 (down 3.00); buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 7.74 (down 0.99). - RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 spread was 19.95 (up 43.55); Guangdong palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 5.05 (up 3.05); buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 5.76 (down 0.75) [1]. - **Exchange Rate Information**: - The US dollar index was 97.12 (up 1.42%); the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 6.95 (up 0.09%); the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.95 (up 0.10%); the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.87 (down 0.13%) [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The US federal government has entered a technical and partial "shutdown" state. - An informed source said that talks between Russia and the US have started in Miami, USA. - SpaceX has applied to deploy one million satellites to build an orbital AI data center network. - According to Interfax, Russia has lifted the gasoline export ban for producers. - Huang Renxun said that he will definitely participate in the current investment in OpenAI, which may be the largest - scale investment in the company's history. - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. - Trump said that negotiations regarding Greenland have started, and he believes that the negotiations are basically in agreement and will eventually reach a deal, emphasizing that it is a "very important" agreement from a national security perspective [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity: -1; Palladium trend intensity: -1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [3].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Platinum shows a box - shaped oscillation, and palladium follows a range - bound oscillation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot markets showed different changes yesterday. For example, platinum futures 2606 closed at 615.10, up 0.83%; gold exchange platinum closed at 605.17, up 0.45%; NYMEX platinum (the day before) closed at 2381.60, up 1.65%. Among palladium prices, palladium futures 2606 closed at 477.95, up 1.83%; RMB spot palladium closed at 436.00, down 1.13%; NYMEX palladium (the day before) closed at 1882.00, up 1.92% [2] - **Trading and Position Data**: Trading volumes of platinum and palladium in different markets decreased compared to the day before. For example, Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 15,282 kg, a decrease of 10,420 kg; NYMEX platinum trading volume was 16,881 kg, a decrease of 27,525 kg. Positions also had different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, Guangzhou platinum positions increased by 313 to 38,171, while NYMEX platinum positions decreased by 281 to 102,281 [2] - **ETF and Inventory Data**: Platinum and palladium ETF positions (in ounces, the day before) decreased. Platinum ETF positions were 3,270,326 ounces, a decrease of 237 ounces; palladium ETF positions were 1,192,961 ounces, a decrease of 223 ounces. Inventory data also had different changes, such as NYMEX platinum inventory (in ounces, the day before) increasing by 100 to 664,393 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventory (in ounces, the day before) decreasing by 3,888 to 207,020 ounces [2] - **Spread and Exchange Rate Data**: Spreads between different platinum and palladium contracts and against spot prices changed. For example, the spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was -9.93, a decrease of 2.34 compared to the day before. Exchange rates such as the US dollar index decreased by 0.32% to 99.05; the US dollar against the RMB (CNY spot) decreased by 0.01% to 6.97 [2] 3.2. Macro and Industry News - The French Prime Minister will use Article 49.3 of the Constitution on Tuesday to take action on the revenue part of the 2026 budget draft [4] - Fed Chairman Powell will attend the Supreme Court hearing on Fed Governor Cook [5] - Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae will dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23 and hold a general election vote on February 8 [5] - The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to grow 3.3% in 2026, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the forecast in October last year; it will grow 3.2% in 2027, the same as the forecast in October last year [5] - Regarding the Greenland issue, Germany and France will take strong actions in response to US tariff threats, and EU leaders will hold an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday. Danish officials will miss the Davos Forum due to the escalating Greenland dispute [5] - Sources said that Russia's gasoline export ban on producers may be lifted in February [5] 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and the trend intensity of palladium is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: January 15, 2026 - Report Type: Commodity Research - Analysts: Liu Yuxuan - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0020476 - Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Platinum is in a state of shock adjustment, while palladium follows with a slight pullback [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 630.65 with a 4.23% increase; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2402.70 with a 2.77% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 495.50 with a 2.53% increase; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1882.50 with a - 0.24% change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For domestic platinum, trading volume was 38,859 kg with a change of 40,702 from the previous day, and open interest was 8,055 kg with a change of 419. For NYMEX platinum, trading volume was 46,885 kg with a change of 1,308, and open interest was 103,814 kg with a change of - 1,535. Similar data is provided for palladium [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,284,147 with a change of 5,863; palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,190,229 with a change of - 1,661 [1]. - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 624,345 with no change; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 210,908 with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads are provided, such as the spread between PT9995 and PT2606, and the spread between domestic platinum 2606 and 2610 contracts, as well as spreads considering VAT for domestic and international prices of platinum and palladium [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **US Economic Data**: US November PPI increased slightly month - on - month, and retail sales growth exceeded expectations. The third - quarter last year recorded the smallest trade deficit since the second quarter of 2023 [4]. - **Iran Situation**: Trump said he was informed that Iran's "killing" had stopped and there was no execution plan; US officials said the US was withdrawing personnel from multiple major bases in the Middle East; the Trump administration obtained a list of 50 high - value Iranian military targets; the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said it had reached the highest state of combat readiness and increased missile inventory; US reconnaissance planes flew along the Iranian border; many countries urged their citizens to leave Iran [4]. - **US Supreme Court**: On January 9, the US Supreme Court did not rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the next ruling window is next Tuesday or Wednesday [4]. - **Chip Tariffs**: Trump proposed a 25% tariff on imported chips not used in US AI, and the White House may expand the scope of chip import tariffs in the near future [4]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The gold - silver ratio fell below the 50 mark for the first time since March 2012 [4]. - **Japan's Warning**: Japan's finance minister and the highest foreign exchange official warned against excessive yen fluctuations [4]. - **Denmark's Action**: The Danish Ministry of Defense confirmed the increase of troops in Greenland [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and that of palladium is also 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 3.4 Other Information - Exchange - related information: The US dollar index was 99.08 with a - 0.06% change; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate (CNY spot) was 6.98 with a 0.06% change; the US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate (CNH spot) had a 0.12% change; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.90 with a - 0.03% change [1].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The sentiment for platinum bulls remains strong, and palladium is expected to move upward in a volatile manner [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Increase**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 705.30 with a 2.67% increase; gold exchange platinum at 662.15 with an 11.99% increase; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) at 2513.90 with a 10.60% increase; London spot platinum (previous day) at 2459.50 with a 9.17% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 515.65 with a - 2.53% change; RMB spot palladium at 429.00 with a 3.13% increase; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) at 2060.50 with a 13.15% increase; London spot palladium (previous day) at 1925.00 with an 11.69% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Position**: Guangdong platinum trading volume was 109,875 kg, a decrease of 117,791 kg from the previous day, and the position was 52,265 kg, an increase of 3,533 kg. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 83,211 kg, an increase of 236 kg, and the position was 103,710 kg, an increase of 75,569 kg. Guangdong palladium trading volume was 162,756 kg, an increase of 62,463 kg, and the position was 30,775 kg, an increase of 6,913 kg. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 46,864 kg, a decrease of 1,260 kg, and the position was 68,275 kg, an increase of 283 kg [1] - **ETF Position**: ETE platinum ETF position (previous day) was 3,275,432 ounces, an increase of 294 ounces. Palladium ETF position (previous day) was 1,143,186 ounces, an increase of 1,475 ounces [1] - **Inventory**: Guangdong platinum inventory was 1 kg (no change). NYMEX platinum inventory (previous day) was 646,896 ounces, an increase of 1,429 ounces. Guangdong palladium inventory was 1 kg (no change). NYMEX palladium inventory (previous day) was 198,040 ounces, an increase of 2,206 ounces [1] - **Price Spread**: PT9995 vs PT2606 price spread was - 43.15, an increase of 52.55 from the previous day. Guangdong platinum 2606 contract vs 2610 contract price spread was - 2.55, an increase of 0.85. The cost of buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 8.64, an increase of 0.22. The price spread between the gold exchange platinum and London platinum was 108.10, an increase of 25.03. The price spread between RMB spot palladium and PD2606 was - 86.65, an increase of 26.40. Guangdong palladium 2606 contract vs 2610 contract price spread was - 6.35, a decrease of 0.40. The cost of buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.39, a decrease of 0.16. The price spread between RMB spot palladium and London palladium was - 2, a decrease of 31.89 [1] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.03 with a 0.13% increase; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 7.01 with a - 0.01% change; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) exchange rate was 7.00 with a 0.08% increase; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) exchange rate was 6.93 with a 0.06% increase [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - As of December 27, the scale of Chinese ETFs reached 6.03 trillion yuan, breaking through the 6 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time in history [3] - From December 27 to 28, the National Fiscal Work Conference was held in Beijing [3] - Cambodia said it had reached a consensus with Thailand on the draft joint statement of the Cambodia - Thailand Border Commission meeting [3] 3. Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity is 1, and palladium trend intensity is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] 4. Other News - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian army had attacked energy facilities used by the Ukrainian defense department, missile engine component production workshops, and Ukrainian attack drone assembly bases, and also attacked 148 temporary deployment points of the Ukrainian armed forces [4] - On December 28, Ukrainian President Zelensky arrived in Florida, USA, to hold talks with Trump [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The sentiment for platinum is dominated by bulls, while palladium is expected to rise in a volatile manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 686.95 with a 4.46% increase; the gold - exchange platinum was at 591.25, down 2.59%. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 529.05, down 8.54%; the RMB spot palladium was at 416.00, down 9.37% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Guangzhou platinum was 227,666 kg, an increase of 201,102 kg compared to the previous day, with an open interest of 48,732, an increase of 718. The trading volume of Guangzhou palladium was 100,293 kg, a decrease of 2,565 kg, and the open interest was 23,862, a decrease of 2,067 [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: The platinum ETF holdings (ounces, the day before) were 3,275,138, a decrease of 5; the palladium ETF holdings (ounces, the day before) were 1,141,711, an increase of 3,144 [1]. - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, the day before) was 645,467; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, the day before) was 195,834 [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was - 95.70, a decrease of 45.04 compared to the previous day; the spread between the Guangzhou platinum 2606 and 2610 contracts was - 3.40, an increase of 32.05 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.91, down 0.05%; the US dollar - to - RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 7.02, down 0.18% [1]. Macro and Industry News - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the plan to produce 100 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually has been postponed for several years due to sanctions, but factory construction continues [3]. - Japanese Prime Minister Takamachi Sanae announced that the total amount of newly issued Japanese government bonds in the next fiscal year will reach 29.6 trillion yen [5]. - Cambodia and Thailand continued border meetings to discuss a cease - fire [5]. - The spokesperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People's Congress commented on the negative China - related clauses in the US "2026 Fiscal Year National Defense Authorization Act", hoping that the US would view China's development and Sino - US relations objectively and rationally [5]. - China's Ministry of Commerce firmly opposed the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has lodged a solemn representation [5]. - China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the issue of relaxing restrictions on rare - earth magnet exports to the US, stating that it actively promotes and facilitates compliant trade [5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is 1, and that of palladium is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For platinum, the external market is closed, and there is a need to be vigilant about a potential correction [1]. - For palladium, the investment sentiment has shifted, and it is expected to decline significantly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data** - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 657.65 with a 6.08% increase; the gold exchange platinum closed at 606.99 with an 8.08% increase; the New York platinum main - continuous contract closed at 2272.90 with a - 2.03% change; the London spot platinum closed at 2253.00 with a - 1.40% change [2]. - Palladium futures 2606 closed at 578.45 with an 8.62% increase; the RMB spot palladium closed at 459.00 with a 5.03% increase; the New York palladium main - continuous contract closed at 1821.00 with a - 7.28% change; the London spot palladium closed at 1723.50 with a - 7.24% change [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position Data** - For platinum, Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 26,564 kg (a decrease of 128,849 from the previous day), and the position was 48,014 kg (an increase of 3,582); NYMEX platinum trading volume was 64,622 kg (a decrease of 42,733), and the position was 101,066 kg (an increase of 59,339) [2]. - For palladium, Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 102,858 kg (a decrease of 79,236), and the position was 25,929 kg (an increase of 3,124); NYMEX palladium trading volume was 47,990 kg (an increase of 7,241), and the position was 67,992 kg (an increase of 579) [2]. - **ETF Position and Inventory Data** - Platinum ETF position (in ounces, previous day) was 3,275,143, an increase of 5,271; palladium ETF position (in ounces, previous day) was 1,138,567, a decrease of 384 [2]. - NYMEX platinum inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 644,038, an increase of 19,305; NYMEX palladium inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 195,834, an increase of 264 [2]. - **Spread Data** - For platinum, the spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was - 50.66 (a change of 7.68 from the previous day); the spread between Guangzhou platinum 2606 and 2610 contracts was - 35.45 (a change of - 33.05); the cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 8.11 (a change of 0.49); the spread between the gold exchange platinum and London platinum was 97.89 (a change of 53.36) [2]. - For palladium, the spread between the RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was - 119.45 (a change of - 23.90); the spread between Guangzhou palladium 2606 and 2610 contracts was - 4.20 (a change of - 1.55); the cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 7.13 (a change of 0.55); the spread between the RMB spot palladium and London palladium was 70 (a change of 53) [2]. - **Exchange Rate Data** - The US dollar index was 97.95, a 0.05% increase; the US dollar against the on - shore RMB (CNY spot) was 7.03, a - 0.14% change; the US dollar against the off - shore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.02, a - 0.18% change; the US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.95, a - 0.08% change [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US officials hinted that they currently prefer sanctions to military action to achieve their goals in Venezuela [5]. - Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the territorial issue remains unresolved. Russia believes that the latest US peace plan proposal lacks key terms and hopes to make revisions [5]. - Japan plans to cut the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds in fiscal year 2026 to about 17 trillion yen, the lowest level in 17 years [5]. - The Cambodian Ministry of Defense said that Thai fighter jets dropped cluster bombs, and the Thai military said they targeted only military objectives [5]. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its fourth - quarter regular meeting, stating that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [5]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25 [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The platinum trend intensity is - 1; the palladium trend intensity is - 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Platinum shows a narrow - range oscillation, and palladium shows a sideways consolidation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium - related products had different changes. For example, the platinum futures 2606 closed at 440.55 with a - 0.44% change, and the New York platinum main - continuous closed at 1683.50 with a 1.81% change. The palladium futures 2606 closed at 381.50 with a 1.94% change [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of platinum and palladium also changed. For instance, the trading volume of Guangbo platinum was 19,006, a decrease of 3,565 compared to the previous day, and its open interest was 12,674, an increase of 409 [3]. - **ETF Holdings**: The platinum ETF holdings (ounces) (previous day) were 3,121,942, an increase of 19,383, and the palladium ETF holdings (ounces) (previous day) were 1,077,501, a decrease of 7 [3]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 615,297, a decrease of 1,031, while the NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 172,604, with no change [3]. - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads had different changes. For example, the PT9995 to PT2606 price spread was - 8.33, an increase of 3.23 compared to the previous day [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.87, a - 0.09% change, and the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 7.07, a - 0.07% change [3]. Macro and Industry News - The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, the lowest since March 2023, while the market expected an increase of 10,000 [6]. - The Kremlin stated that it was incorrect to say that Russian President Putin rejected the US proposal on Ukraine, and it was just a preliminary exchange of opinions [6]. - US media reported that US Treasury Secretary Bessent might concurrently serve as the director of the National Economic Council [6]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there was weakness in some areas of the economy and interest rate cuts were needed [6]. - US media reported that Trump's assistant would meet with senior Ukrainian negotiators in Miami on Thursday [6]. - The EU will fully ban the import of Russian natural gas in the autumn of 2027 [6]. Trend Intensity - The platinum trend intensity is 0, and the palladium trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].