AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 本周，美国经济数据扎堆发布，但定于北京时间周二晚9点30分公布的非农就业报告将占据"舞台中 心。" 过去一个月里，被推迟的数据缓慢而稳定地解冻，本周将汇聚成一股洪流：在接下来的三天里，有关零 售销售、通胀和劳动力市场的主要报告将陆续发布。 受历史上持续时间最长的政府停摆带来的挥之不去的影响，美国的11月非农就业报告将在一个奇怪的时 间点发布——12月中旬的一个周二，而不是通常情况下的每个月第一个周五。 根据市场预测，11月非农就业人数可能增加5万人，失业率预计将达到4.4%。 值得注意的是，这不仅仅一份普通的就业报告。其不仅将提供备受期待的美国劳动力市场现状，也将为 明年的利率路径奠定基础。 另外，拜美国政府停摆所赐，数据周围的不确定性，以及那些怪异之处比平时更多。 "买一送半"的数据 11月的非农就业报告与美国的感恩节促销活动可以说"大同小异"。因为前者在发布之际，还将"附赠"一 半的数据，即10月非农就业人数。因为劳工统计局无法追溯收集10月份的失业率数据，所以不会发布相 关统计数据。 值得注意的是，近几个月就业数据特别"颠簸"，一直在下滑和稳健增 ...

澳大利亚统计局劳工统计主管肖恩·克里克（Sean Crick）表示，过去六个月里，有五个月澳大利亚的失 业率处于4.3%这一水平。在过去十二个月里，该国就业人数增长了1.3%，这一数字低于同期2.0%的人 口增长率。 新华财经悉尼12月11日电 澳大利亚统计局11日公布的数据显示，经季节性因素调整，2025年11月该国 失业率维持在4.3%不变。 （文章来源：新华财经） 最新数据显示，经季节性因素调整，今年11月澳大利亚就业人数环比减少0.1%，同比增长约1.3%，至 1465.57万人。失业人数环比减少大约0.3%，同比增长约11.7%，至66.23万人。月度工作小时数环比微 幅减少，就业不足率环比增加0.4个百分点至6.2%。 ...

Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate decreased from 4.5% to 4.3% in October 2025, aligning with levels seen in June, July, and August of the same year [1] - The number of employed individuals in Australia increased by 0.3% month-on-month and approximately 1.6% year-on-year, reaching 14.6832 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals fell by about 2.5% month-on-month but rose by approximately 7.8% year-on-year, totaling 665,400 [1] Employment Data - The monthly hours worked increased by 0.5%, while the underemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.7% [1] - Trend data indicates that the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.4%, with a month-on-month employment increase of about 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.5%, totaling 14.6784 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by about 0.5% month-on-month and rose by 10% year-on-year, amounting to 669,600 [1] Full-time and Part-time Employment - Full-time employment rose by 55,000 in October, with female full-time employment increasing by 29,000 and male full-time employment by 26,000 [1] - Part-time employment decreased by 13,000, primarily due to a reduction of 21,000 in female part-time employment [1]

Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate increased from 4.3% to 4.5% in September 2025, marking the highest level since November 2021 [1] - The number of employed individuals rose by 0.1% month-on-month and approximately 1.3% year-on-year, reaching 14.64 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by about 5.2% month-on-month and 12.6% year-on-year, totaling 684,000 [1] Employment Data Summary - Seasonally adjusted employment figures show a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.5%, totaling 14.647 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals rose by about 0.6% month-on-month and 8.2% year-on-year, amounting to 661,500 [1] - Monthly working hours increased by 0.5% month-on-month, while the underemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 5.9% [1] Labor Participation Insights - The labor participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 67%, slightly below the historical high of 67.2% recorded at the beginning of the year [1] - In September, there was an addition of 34,000 unemployed individuals and an increase of 15,000 employed individuals [1]

Core Insights - Some analysts believe that the July non-farm data and revisions indicate a softening U.S. economy [1] - The focus will quickly shift from comparing August data with July's initial values to further revisions of June and July data [1] - Uncertainty from Trump's tariff statements and extended deadlines has led U.S. businesses to refrain from making significant employment or investment decisions in Q2 [1] - With the potential for trade agreements and clarity on tariff levels, these economic figures may rebound quickly in Q3 and Q4 [1]

Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate decreased to 4.2% in July 2025, down from 4.3% in June, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point decline [1] - The number of employed individuals in Australia increased by approximately 0.2% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year, reaching 14.6414 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals decreased by about 1.5% month-on-month but increased by 3.1% year-on-year, totaling 649,000 [1] Employment Data Summary - The monthly hours worked increased by 0.3%, while the underemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9% [1] - Trend data indicates that the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a month-on-month employment increase of approximately 0.2% [1] - Year-on-year employment growth was 2%, aligning with the population growth rate [1] Employment Composition - Full-time employment rose by 60,000 in July, contributing positively to overall employment growth [1] - Part-time employment saw a decrease of 36,000, which negatively impacted the total employment figures [1] - The labor statistics supervisor noted that the employment growth rate has been declining in recent months despite being higher than the population growth rate for most of the past year [1]

Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate decreased to 4.2% in July 2025, down from 4.3% in June, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point drop [1] - The number of employed persons increased by approximately 0.2% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year, reaching 14.6414 million [1] - The number of unemployed persons decreased by about 1.5% month-on-month but increased by 3.1% year-on-year, totaling 649,000 [1] Employment Data Summary - The monthly hours worked increased by 0.3%, and the underemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9% [1] - Trend data shows the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a month-on-month employment increase of about 0.2% and a 1% rise in unemployed persons [1] - Monthly hours worked saw a slight increase of approximately 0.1%, with the underemployment rate unchanged at 5.9% [1] Employment Composition - Full-time employment rose by 60,000 in July, while part-time employment fell by 36,000, impacting overall employment growth [1] - Over the past year, the year-on-year growth in employment numbers has consistently outpaced population growth, although recent months have shown a decline in employment growth [1] - The year-on-year employment growth in July was 2%, aligning with the population growth rate [1]

Market Overview - The Japanese stock market opened high on August 13, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 1% and surpassing the 43,000 points mark [3][4] - The Nikkei 225 index reached a current value of 43,042.48, up by 324.36 points or 0.76% [4] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index also increased, setting a new historical high [5] Individual Stocks Performance - Notable individual stocks such as Sony, Subaru, and Toyota all saw gains exceeding 2% [7] - Sony: Current price 4,084.0, up 2.30%, market cap 25.12 trillion [7] - Subaru: Current price 3,131.0, up 2.69%, market cap 2.2952 trillion [7] - Toyota: Current price 2,916.5, up 2.15%, market cap 46.07 trillion [7] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.515% [8] - Japan's wholesale price index (CGPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, a slowdown from the previous month's 2.9% [8] - The import price index in yen terms decreased by 10.4% year-on-year in July, compared to a 12.2% decline in June [8] South Korean Market Update - The KOSPI composite index opened with a rise of over 1% but later experienced fluctuations [9] - South Korea's adjusted unemployment rate for July was reported at 2.5%, slightly better than the expected 2.6% [11] - Employment numbers in South Korea increased by 171,000 year-on-year in July, marking the second consecutive month with job growth exceeding 100,000 [11]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Focus on the economic outlook as Federal Reserve officials, including Waller and Daly, are scheduled to speak on July 11, 2025 [2] - Key Point 2: Key economic data releases from the UK include May GDP, manufacturing output, trade balance, and industrial output, all set to be announced at 14:00 [2] - Key Point 3: France's final CPI for June will be released at 14:45, while Switzerland's consumer confidence index for June will be available at 15:00 [2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The IEA will publish its monthly oil market report at 16:00, which may provide insights into global oil supply and demand trends [2] - Key Point 2: Canada's employment numbers for June will be released at 20:30, which could impact market sentiment regarding the Canadian economy [2] - Key Point 3: The total number of oil rigs in the US will be reported for the week ending July 11 at 01:00 the following day, indicating activity levels in the oil sector [2]

Key Points - The article highlights important financial data and events to be monitored on July 2, 2025, including U.S. API crude oil inventory and Eurozone unemployment rate [1] - It lists specific times for the release of various economic indicators, such as U.S. Challenger job cuts and ADP employment figures [1] - The article emphasizes the significance of EIA crude oil inventory data, including Cushing and strategic petroleum reserve inventories, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [1]