Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market focus is on the Iran situation, with rising crude oil prices due to tensions. PXN has been significantly compressed, and concerns about supply disruptions are pushing up naphtha prices, while PX's upward momentum is limited by poor downstream polyester demand. The situation's impact on PX load and inventory is expanding [1]. - PTA's cost is supported, but it's in a state of inventory accumulation. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve after the end of the capacity expansion cycle. The polyester and weaving loads are stable, but downstream price increases are weak, and there are more voices of production cuts [2]. - PF has negative production profits, with heavy downstream wait - and - see mentality. PR's processing fees are still relatively high, and the inventory of bottle - chip factories remains low [3]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously go long on PX/PTA/PF/PR for hedging. It is not advisable to chase up or sell down due to the complexity of the current market [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][15] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [17][21] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Cover toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits [23][25] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Display the operating loads of PTA and PX in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [26][29][31] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Show PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories [36][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Include long - filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, and various factory inventory days and operating rates in the downstream [46][48][56] PF Detailed Data - Provide information on polyester staple fiber load, inventory days, and related production data [68][77][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle - chip load, inventory days, processing fees, and export profits [87][89][93]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tension in the Iran situation has led to rising crude oil prices, with the focus of the market remaining on the situation in Iran. The PXN of PX has been significantly compressed, and the supply disruption in the Middle East has continuously pushed up the price of naphtha. However, the poor downstream polyester demand has limited the upward momentum of PX. The influence of the Iran situation is gradually expanding, and the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz remains low. Under the concern of supply disruption, the PX spot shows a Back structure, and the floating price is relatively strong. Recently, affected by the concern about the stability of raw material supply, the PX load has decreased, and the de - stocking amplitude has increased. If the raw material supply continues to be affected, the impact on refineries in other countries will also continue to expand [1]. - For PTA, the spot basis is -73 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +1 yuan/ton), the spot processing fee is 231 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +37 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 318 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +20 yuan/ton). The weaving and polyester loads are recovering, and the PTA load has decreased but the impact is smaller than that of PX. It continued to accumulate inventory in March, but the PTA trend is relatively strong under cost support, and the processing fee is compressed. Currently, the supply of goods is relatively abundant, and the spot basis is running weakly. The market is debating which has a greater impact, supply reduction or demand suppression. In the medium and long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, and the long - term expectation is still good [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 87.6% (with a month - on - month increase of 0.9%). The polyester and weaving loads are stable, but the downstream prices are slow to follow the increase, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is not high. There are more voices of production reduction. Recently, the sales of filament have been continuously sluggish, and the inventory of filament and staple fiber has accumulated rapidly. The polyester load is lower than that of the same period last year. If the downstream continues not to replenish inventory, the load may decrease [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is -267 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of -310 yuan/ton). The downstream has a strong wait - and - see attitude, with moderate replenishment at periodic lows and less high - level transactions. The short - fiber factory's equipment has been started, and the load has increased. Due to the weak sales, the factory inventory has increased, and the processing difference fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 992 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of -246 yuan/ton). Affected by the situation in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, the upstream raw materials have experienced production cuts and load reductions, and the prices of polyester raw materials have risen significantly. The prices of polyester bottle chip factories mostly follow the increase. The operating load of polyester bottle chip equipment has increased slightly and remained stable, and the overall supply has increased slightly. However, mainstream factories have cut some contract volumes, and the circulating supply of goods is still tight. The inventory of bottle chip factories remains at a low level, and the processing fee has retreated but is still relatively high [3]. - The strategy suggests cautious bottom - fishing long - hedging for PX/PTA/PF/PR. Before seeing actual troop withdrawals or negotiations, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still difficult to be smooth, and cost support and supply concerns still exist, but there is a negative feedback expectation on the demand side. Currently, the trading difficulty is relatively large, and it is not advisable to chase up or kill down. The supply affects the 5 - 9 positive spread of PX, and attention should be paid to the traffic situation in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis, with data sources including CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [8][9][14] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit, with data sources such as CCF, Tonghuashun, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit, with data sources from Longzhong, Tonghuashun, CCF, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [22][24] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia, with data sources from CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][30] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory, with data sources from Zhuochuang Information, Tonghuashun, Longzhong, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [35][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover the sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines, with data sources from CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][55] PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days, with data sources from CCF, Tonghuashun, Longzhong, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [67][74][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread, with data sources from CCF, Tonghuashun, Longzhong, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [86][93]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: January 22, 2026 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The current polyolefin market is still driven by costs, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand is gradually emerging, and the upward space is limited. The polyolefin market has entered a stage of weak shock consolidation [6]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: L2605 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 6,666 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.41%), with a trading volume of 370,000 lots and an increase of 9,150 lots in positions to 504,362 lots. PP2605 closed at 6,485 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan, an increase of 0.42%, with an increase of 2,082 lots in positions to 468,300 lots [6]. - **Cost Factors**: Some oil fields in Kazakhstan suspended production due to power grid terminals, and the instability of the geopolitical situation has not been eliminated, leading to an increase in international oil prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The maintenance loss of PP remained high with limited changes in supply. The maintenance loss of plastics decreased and imported cargoes arrived in a concentrated manner, increasing the overall supply pressure. On the demand side, the demand for plastic film drove a slight increase in the start - up rate of agricultural film production. Other start - up rates were basically stable. The rapid price increase previously led to stronger resistance from downstream customers to high prices. Some downstream factories were rushing to complete annual orders, but the orders lacked sustainability under the high raw material price background, and small - scale enterprises might reduce production or enter the holiday period in advance [6]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On January 21, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 550,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (1.79%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same period last year was 475,000 tons [7]. - **PE Market**: The PE market price continued to decline. The LLDPE price in North China was 6,520 - 6,850 yuan/ton, 6,650 - 7,000 yuan/ton in East China, and 6,750 - 7,100 yuan/ton in South China [7]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6,120 - 6,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The offers of production enterprises were stable with some increases, the premium of the real - order auctions of major manufacturers continued, and the overall market trading atmosphere remained [7]. - **PP Market**: The price center of the PP market continued to move down. The mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 6,270 - 6,420 yuan/ton, 6,300 - 6,500 yuan/ton in East China, and 6,300 - 6,570 yuan/ton in South China [7]. 3. Data Overview - No specific data overview content is provided other than the source information. The data sources include Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][13][15][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The copper prices of both domestic and foreign markets achieved a historic breakthrough in the intense game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The LME copper price reached a high point at the beginning of the week, and the main contract of Shanghai copper hit a record high of 98,800 yuan/ton during Friday's trading session. The "strong expectation" completely overwhelmed the "weak reality" this week. While the futures price reached a new high, the spot market sent a clear signal of weakness. The long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, but be vigilant against the short - term risk of high - level correction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review and Outlook - Macroscopically, the loose expectation continues, and the continuous weakening of the US dollar provides support for copper prices. On the supply side, the strike at Chilean mines brings the risk of production cuts. The production disturbances at the mine end resonate with the joint production cut plan of CSPT at the smelting end, strengthening the narrative of supply shortage. On the demand side, the extremely high spot price has seriously suppressed actual consumption. Downstream procurement is extremely cautious, the discount of spot electrolytic copper continues to widen, and the increase in social inventory is significant. The sharp rise in copper prices this week is mainly driven by high market sentiment. Once the sentiment fades, copper prices may fluctuate sharply [2]. Attention Factors - Pay attention to the Sino - US PMI data for December, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, and changes in downstream demand [3]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | 97800 | 92315 | 5485 | 5.94% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | - 350 | - 155 | - 195 | - 125.81% | Weekly | | SHFE: Electrolytic copper: Basis | yuan/ton | - 980 | - 940 | - 40 | - 4.26% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | yuan/ton | 98800 | 93410 | 5390 | 5.77% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | tons | 157025 | 160400 | - 3375 | - 2.10% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | tons | 111703 | 95805 | 15898 | 16.59% | Weekly | [3] 1. Futures Market Review - The content mainly includes the price trend charts of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio, with data sources from Boyi Master and Nanjing Securities Futures [5][6][8]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - It involves charts such as the forward spot price of copper concentrate (measured by TC price), the average spot processing price of blister copper, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, the price change trend of electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the refined - scrap price difference in major markets. The data sources are from Steel Union Terminal and Nanjing Securities Futures [13][14][16]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The content contains charts such as the premium/discount of 1 electrolytic copper (≥99.95%) in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rate, refined copper rod trading volume, Yangshan copper bonded area premium, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premium (pyrometallurgy). The data sources are from iFinD and Steel Union Terminal [21][22][27]. 4. Inventory Situation Analysis - It includes charts of electrolytic copper bonded area inventory and the inventory of three major futures exchanges, with data sources from Steel Union Terminal and Nanjing Securities Futures [31].