Summary of Geely Automobile Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Geely Automobile - **Industry**: Automotive, specifically focusing on electric and fuel vehicles Key Points Financial Performance - In 2024, Geely achieved an operating profit exceeding 9 billion yuan, with significant contributions from exports [2][4] - For the first half of 2025, the expected operating profit is between 6 to 7 billion yuan, with a full-year forecast of 15 to 16 billion yuan, driven by sales growth and product structure optimization [2][4] - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to rise due to an increase in high-end model sales [4] Sales and Market Position - The Galaxy brand's monthly sales are stable at 90,000 to 100,000 units, with an end-of-year target of 120,000 to 130,000 units, aiming for over 1 million units for the year [2][7] - Geely has established a strong position in the sub-200,000 yuan electric vehicle market, with a robust product launch schedule through 2026 [3] - The Galaxy A7 and M9 models have received strong pre-sales, with expectations of monthly sales reaching 20,000 to 30,000 units combined [16] Export and High-End Strategy - Geely plans to increase its export volume by 50% next year, despite a decline in the Russian market [8][25] - The integration of the Zeekr and Lynk & Co brands is expected to enhance profitability through reduced costs and improved product offerings [8][18] New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Strategy - Geely's NEV sales accounted for nearly 60% of total sales in the first eight months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 120% [11] - The company is focusing on high-end NEVs through the Zeekr and Lynk & Co brands, while the Galaxy brand targets the mainstream market [11][18] Competitive Landscape - Geely is addressing market competition by optimizing its product architecture and reducing costs through the GEA platform [12] - The company has seen a 6.6% increase in fuel vehicle sales from January to July 2025, with a market share exceeding 8% [24] Future Outlook - Geely's profit is projected to reach approximately 16 billion yuan in 2025 and 22 billion yuan in 2026, with a recommendation for strong investment based on low valuation multiples [32] - The company is enhancing its global presence through strategic partnerships and localized production [31] Technological Advancements - Geely is advancing its smart driving technology with the launch of the Qianli Haohan series, which includes various levels of autonomous driving capabilities [29][20] Brand Integration and Management - The integration of Zeekr and Lynk & Co aims to eliminate internal competition and streamline operations, enhancing overall market competitiveness [18][9] Additional Insights - The Galaxy brand is expected to contribute significantly to overall profitability in 2025, with a projected sales volume exceeding 1 million units [17] - Geely's proactive approach to managing export markets and new product launches positions it well for future growth [27][26] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Geely Automobile's conference call, highlighting its financial performance, market strategies, and future outlook in the automotive industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy, which is anticipated to support consumer demand and sales growth in 2025 [16] - The report highlights a new phase of domestic brands entering a strategic offensive towards high-end development, with companies offering quality products priced above 300,000 yuan likely to benefit significantly [16] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-level intelligent driving technologies to become more affordable, which could increase their penetration rates [16] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 0.4% from July 7 to July 11, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.1% [17] - In June 2025, the wholesale volume of automobiles reached 2.904 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [30] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, SAIC Group, BYD, Great Wall Motors for high-end supply [16] - XPeng Motors, Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Coboda for intelligent driving technologies [16] - Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Beite Technology for robotics production [16] - Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., and Yinlun Co. for quality auto parts [16] - Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck for commercial vehicles [16] Earnings Forecasts - Key companies and their projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E include: - Yinlun Co.: 0.92, 1.28, 1.59 [49] - Baolong Technology: 1.44, 2.56, 3.22 [49] - BYD: 13.84, 18.15, 22.13 [49] - Li Auto: 4.16, 5.43, 8.33 [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [4][7] Core Views - Geely Automobile has raised its annual sales target by 10.7%, from 2.71 million to 3 million units, reflecting the company's confidence in its growth prospects [11] - The company's sales in June reached 236,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, with electric vehicle sales growing by 85.5% [11] - The Galaxy series continues to show strong growth, with sales of 90,200 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 201.8% [11] - The report highlights that Geely's strategy is not merely about price cuts but is supported by technological advancements and strong cost control, which are expected to enhance profitability as scale effects are realized [11] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.50, 1.76, and 2.13 RMB respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.36, 1.54, and 1.94 RMB [4] - The target price is set at 22.50 RMB, equivalent to 24.69 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times the average for comparable companies [4] - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 179,204 million, 240,194 million, 319,444 million, 381,363 million, and 442,685 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 19.4%, and 16.1% respectively [6][12] - Operating profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 3,806 million, 7,644 million, 14,116 million, 16,739 million, and 20,314 million RMB for the same period [6][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 5,308 million, 16,632 million, 15,121 million, 17,735 million, and 21,451 million RMB, with growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, -9.1%, 17.3%, and 21.0% respectively [6][12]