1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market rotation has accelerated, and the risk appetite has decreased. However, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology and growth are still the main market trends. Index investment should focus on buying on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market supply - demand pattern may improve, but it will maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. - For most commodities, the market situation is complex. Some are expected to strengthen due to factors such as supply disturbances and cost support, while others may face pressure due to factors such as over - supply and weak demand. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - events and industry fundamentals [41][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%. The National Space Administration established the Commercial Space Department. The central bank continued to ban virtual currencies. Metal prices soared on Friday, with silver and copper hitting record highs [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market rotation has accelerated, and the risk appetite has decreased. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the index should be bought on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In November, the manufacturing PMI improved, and the non - manufacturing business activity index declined. Japan revised its bond issuance plan. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Friday, with a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In November, the manufacturing PMI data showed an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment, but the service industry was weak. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose. COMEX gold and silver also had certain prices. Silver has entered the accelerated peak - hitting stage, and its technical trend conforms to the characteristics of previous second - stage rises. The current overseas position and inventory levels are not in a state of "delivery difficulties" [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The silver price is in an accelerated rise, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, profits should be taken in time. It is risky to open new long positions or short at high prices. Shanghai gold is at the end of a triangular convergence breakthrough pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Concerns about smelting production cuts led copper prices to break through historical highs. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic futures exchange inventory decreased. The domestic spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors still exist, but the market focuses on the Fed's interest rate meeting. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the expectation of smelting production cuts drives copper prices to rise. The downstream operating rate is stable and strong, so copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen [12]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded on Friday. The inventory of domestic and LME aluminum ingots continued to decline. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to decline, and the trading was average [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of domestic and LME aluminum ingots is at a relatively low level. Coupled with supply disturbances, stable downstream operating rates, and rising copper prices, the center of gravity of aluminum prices is expected to rise further [14]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The LME zinc price fell. The domestic social zinc inventory decreased slightly, but the total inventory increased after considering the in - transit and factory inventories. The zinc import was at a loss [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has increased, but the zinc concentrate TC has continued to decline, and the zinc smelting profit is under pressure. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally. The current situation of the zinc industry is not in resonance with the strong macro - sentiment, so zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. The LME lead price also rose. The domestic social lead inventory decreased slightly. The refined - scrap price difference was at par [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the primary smelting operating rate has declined, and the secondary smelting operating rate has continued to rise. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate has increased marginally, and the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots has decreased. In the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the sentiment of the non - ferrous metals industry is relatively positive, so lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly on Friday. The spot price premiums of different brands were stable, and the nickel ore price was stable, while the nickel iron price continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but with the stabilization of nickel iron prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the trends of nickel iron and ore prices [19]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price rose. The inventory of the futures exchange increased, and the LME tin inventory also increased. The supply of tin concentrate has been slightly relieved, but the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) has affected transportation. The demand in traditional fields is weak, but emerging fields provide long - term support. The social inventory has decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the demand in the tin market is weak in the short - term, the supply disturbance is the decisive factor for short - term prices. Therefore, tin prices are likely to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, while the futures price increased. The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of fundamentals boosts the bullish sentiment, but there are differences in future demand expectations. The change of the mining permit of Jiaxiawo Mine is a short - term positive for the spot but a long - term negative for supply. It is recommended to wait and see or use options, and pay attention to the cell production schedule in the first quarter and the atmosphere of the equity market [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose. The domestic spot price was at a premium to the futures. The overseas price fell, and the import window was opened. The futures inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas ore shipment will gradually recover, and the alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot prices in different markets were stable or decreased. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures and social inventories decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel mill production is at a high level, the demand has improved marginally, but the cost pressure has squeezed the profit, and the inventory pressure is still significant. The market lacks a clear upward momentum, so stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [27]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and there are policy disturbances on the supply side. The demand is relatively average, so the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The spot prices in different regions were stable or increased [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market adjusted on Friday, and the prices of steel products fluctuated. The supply and demand of rebar decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The anti - dumping tax imposed by South Korea on Chinese steel will affect exports. The demand for steel has entered the off - season, so attention should be paid to the actual progress of production cuts and important meetings [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price fell. The spot price was at a premium to the futures, and the port inventory increased [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, the demand weakened, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and the steel mill profitability was at a low level. The overall inventory of iron ore is still high, but there are structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillatory range [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price rose, the inventory decreased, and the trading volume of long and short positions decreased. The soda ash main contract price rose slightly, the inventory decreased, and the trading volume of long and short positions also decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: For glass, the supply has shrunk, the market sentiment has improved briefly, but the overall trading is still light, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices. For soda ash, the industry operating rate has increased slightly, the inventory has decreased slightly, the price is stable, but it is still recommended to be bearish in the short - term [37][38]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract price was flat. The prices of the two in the spot market were stable, and the spot was at a premium to the futures [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has improved. The black - building materials sector is still in a weak state, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. For manganese silicon, the fundamentals are not ideal, and there are no major contradictions. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [41][42]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract price rose slightly. The spot price was stable, and the trading volume decreased [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term trading volume of industrial silicon has decreased, and the trend has become dull. The production has continued to decline, the demand from the polysilicon sector has weakened, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The price is easily affected by the sentiment of other new - energy varieties [44]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures main contract price rose. The spot prices of different types were stable, and the futures was at a premium to the spot [45][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of polysilicon is expected to decline in December, the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. The spot price is stable, and there are risks in the near - month contract due to delivery games. Attention should be paid to the final implementation of the platform company [47]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded. The flood in the Thai rubber - producing area receded, and the exchange inventory was low. The tire factory operating rate was weak, and the inventory increased [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to adopt a neutral strategy, wait and see, or conduct short - term trading. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE crude oil futures price rose, and the prices of related refined oil products also rose. The gasoline and diesel inventories in Singapore decreased, while the fuel oil inventory increased [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the OPEC supply has not increased significantly. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy is maintained, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [54]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot and futures prices rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The potential positive factors of Iranian plant shutdowns have been realized, the market has stopped falling and stabilized, and the market expectation has changed. The supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to turn to an oscillatory adjustment after the positive factors are realized. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side trading and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity [55]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot and futures prices rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The price has support from export policies and costs, so it is recommended to consider buying at low prices [57]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, the basis decreased. The styrene spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and the valuation has a large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still wide, the styrene operating rate is rising, and the inventory is accumulating. When the inventory reversal point occurs, the non - integrated profit of styrene can be long [59]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative. The production cost increased, the operating rate increased, and the inventory increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is at a low level, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export cannot digest the excess capacity. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [61][62]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price rose, the spot price fell, the basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased. The supply load increased, the downstream load increased slightly, and the port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is expected to decrease in December, the import volume will decrease slightly, and the port inventory accumulation may slow down. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is still weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices [64]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative. The PTA operating rate increased, the downstream load increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The unexpected maintenance of PTA is expected to decrease. The downstream polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the bottle - chip load is difficult to increase. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space, and the PX has a risk of a slight valuation correction [66]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 3 spread was negative. The p - xylene operating rate decreased, the downstream PTA operating rate increased, the import volume increased, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, the downstream PTA operating rate is low, and the PX inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction [68]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, the spot price was stable, the basis weakened, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth may support oil prices. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. The supply is limited, the inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profit is at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales grow positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance output is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious, and prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] 4. Market Data Domestic Futures - Copper's previous closing price was 86,080 yuan/ton with a basis of 50 yuan/ton; aluminum was 21,495 yuan/ton with a basis of - 10 yuan/ton; zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton with a basis of 55 yuan/ton; nickel was 115,250 yuan/ton with a basis of - 3,150 yuan/ton; lead was 17,200 yuan/ton with a basis of - 140 yuan/ton; tin was 292,030 yuan/ton with a basis of - 460 yuan/ton [2] LME Market - Copper's LME 3 - month closing price was 10,686 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 33.13 dollars/ton and inventory of 157,875 tons (a daily increase of 17,375 tons); aluminum was 2,807 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 32.88 dollars/ton and inventory of 546,075 tons (a daily decrease of 2,000 tons); zinc was 3,004 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 152.14 dollars/ton and inventory of 45,075 tons (a daily increase of 1,550 tons); nickel was 14,455 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 197.66 dollars/ton and inventory of 255,846 tons (a daily decrease of 1,986 tons); lead was 2,005 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 27.39 dollars/ton and inventory of 264,475 tons (a daily decrease of 325 tons); tin was 37,035 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 100 dollars/ton and inventory of 3,115 tons (a daily increase of 60 tons) [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on September 17, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide data reference for investors [1][5][21][27][40][51]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Base Difference**: On September 16, 2025, the base difference was - 113.4 yuan/ton, showing a narrowing trend compared with previous days [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The base differences of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy commodities on different dates are presented, such as the base difference of INE crude oil being 16.04 yuan/ton on September 16, 2025 [7]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Base Difference**: The base differences of rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. on different dates are provided, for example, the base difference of rubber was - 890 yuan/ton on September 16, 2025 [9]. - **Spread**: The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for various chemical products were mostly 0.0. The cross - variety spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. on different dates are also given, e.g., the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2296 yuan/ton on September 16, 2025 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Spread** - **Cross - Period**: The cross - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, etc. are shown, for example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 68.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Cross - Variety**: The cross - variety spreads such as screw/ore, screw/coke on different dates are presented, e.g., the screw/ore ratio was 3.93 on September 16, 2025 [20]. - **Base Difference**: The base differences of rebar, iron ore, etc. on different dates are provided, like the base difference of rebar was 114.0 yuan/ton on September 16, 2025 [21]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic base differences of copper, aluminum, etc. on different dates are given, for example, the base difference of copper was - 80 yuan/ton on September 16, 2025 [28]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals on September 16, 2025 are presented, such as the LME spread of copper being (59.26) [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Base Difference**: The base differences of soybeans, soybean meal, etc. on different dates are provided, for example, the base difference of soybeans was 136 yuan/ton on September 16, 2025 [40]. - **Spread** - **Cross - Period**: The cross - period spreads of various agricultural products are shown, e.g., the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans was 47 [40]. - **Cross - Variety**: The cross - variety spreads such as soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal on different dates are presented, like the soybean/corn ratio was 1.81 on September 16, 2025 [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Base Difference**: On September 16, 2025, the base differences of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 6.54, - 2.78, etc. respectively [52]. - **Spread**: The cross - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. are given, for example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 10.0 [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range. Weekend night - session copper prices dropped 0.31%. With tight concentrate supply and pressured smelting profits, smelting output still shows high growth. Multiple factors such as power industry growth, possible slowdown in PV growth, positive growth in auto production and sales, slowing home appliance output growth, and weak real estate make the copper market have both positive and negative factors [2]. - Zinc prices may have a short - term wide - range and weak - trend fluctuation. Weekend night - session zinc prices dropped 0.02%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and smelting profits are turning positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Metal Price Performance - Copper: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 81,360 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 10,068 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 73.42 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 154,175 tons, with a daily decrease of 875 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 21,285 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,701 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was 6.35 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 485,275 tons, with no change [2]. - Zinc: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 75 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,956 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was 30.17 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 50,625 tons, with a daily decrease of 200 tons [2]. - Nickel: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,330 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,391 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 171.20 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 223,152 tons, with a daily increase of 2,058 tons [2]. - Lead: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 125 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,018 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 41.16 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 232,625 tons, with a daily decrease of 4,375 tons [2]. - Tin: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 273,180 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,300 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 34,955 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 34.98 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 2,385 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2].