Group 1: Aluminum Market - LME aluminum price increased by 0.52% to $2877.00 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum rose by 0.99% to 21,800 yuan per ton [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded at 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to earlier in the week [3] - National alumina production capacity stands at 110.32 million tons per year, with operational capacity at 89.56 million tons per year; weekly operating rate decreased by 0.81 percentage points to 81.18% [3] Group 2: Copper Market - LME copper price rose by 1.53% to $10,859.00 per ton, and Shanghai copper increased by 1.12% to 86,900 yuan per ton [2] - Import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$42.21 per ton; national inventory increased by 5,200 tons to 201,100 tons [2] - Domestic waste anode plate production remains high with an operating rate of 73.62%, expected to rise by 2.61 percentage points next week [2] Group 3: Gold Market - COMEX gold price increased by 4.16% to $4,174.50 per ounce; SPDR gold holdings rose by 6.87 tons to 1,048.93 tons [4] - Market influenced by U.S. political dysfunction and geopolitical risks, leading to a strong oscillation pattern [4] Group 4: Rare Earth and Antimony - Praseodymium and neodymium prices decreased by 1.40%; rare earth prices expected to rise due to increased demand following the suspension of control measures [5] - Antimony price increased by 15.5% due to resource scarcity and reduced global supply [5] Group 5: Tin and Lithium - Tin price increased by 3.11% as Indonesia cracks down on illegal mining [6] - Lithium carbonate price rose by 3.14% to 83,200 yuan per ton, with total production at 21,500 tons [6]

Group 1: Copper Market Insights - The core viewpoint indicates that copper prices may experience high-level fluctuations in the short term due to positive expectations from China-US negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with copper prices reaching over 89,000 yuan/ton [1] - The Grasberg mine, the world's second-largest copper mine, is expected to halt production until 2027, leading to a projected 35% decrease in output by 2026, potentially resulting in a global copper shortage [1] - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while global supply disruptions and insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining may lead to a supply-demand shift towards shortage, supporting a potential price increase [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market Insights - Aluminum prices are on the rise due to inventory depletion and expanding profits in electrolytic aluminum, with Shanghai aluminum prices reaching 21,300 yuan/ton and a week-on-week inventory decrease of 3.89% [1] - The alumina market remains oversupplied, with production capacity at 90.657 million tons/year and an operating rate of 82.18%, leading to a price decline in the short term [1] - The aluminum supply is nearing its ceiling, while stable demand growth may lead to a potential shortage next year, indicating an upward trend in aluminum prices [1] Group 3: Lithium and Cobalt Market Insights - Lithium demand has exceeded expectations, with lithium carbonate and spodumene prices rising, and a 1.1% decrease in carbonate lithium production alongside a 2.3% drop in inventory [2] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to the Democratic Republic of Congo implementing an export quota system, which has led to tighter supply and increased prices for MB cobalt and domestic cobalt [2] - The production forecast for cobalt in 2024 is 220,000 tons, with export quotas accounting for 44%, indicating a potential shift from oversupply to tight supply conditions [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on copper-related investment opportunities due to favorable negotiations, interest rate cuts, and supply disruptions [3] - Attention is recommended for the aluminum sector, where inventory depletion and stable demand growth may lead to price increases [3] - The lithium and cobalt sectors are also highlighted, with expectations of price recovery due to increased lithium battery demand and tightening cobalt supply [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform in line with the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index decreased by 1.97% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 23rd among 31 first-level industries [2][13]. - Precious metals experienced a significant decline, with gold prices dropping by 3.30% and silver by 4.38% in the last week [3][22]. - The report highlights the importance of geopolitical factors and domestic demand recovery in shaping future investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index fell by 1.97% from October 13 to October 24, 2025, with all sub-sectors showing declines, particularly precious metals which dropped by 7.89% [2][13]. Precious Metals - As of October 24, COMEX gold closed at $4,126.90 per ounce, down 3.30% over the past week, while year-to-date it has increased by 54.50%. COMEX silver closed at $48.41 per ounce, down 4.38% over the past week, with a year-to-date increase of 61.42% [3][22]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $10,807.00 per ton, up 0.67% over the past two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 24.43%. Domestic copper prices averaged 87,040 RMB per ton, up 0.85% over the same period [30][31]. Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 279,000 RMB per ton, up 3.72% over the past two weeks, while LME tin was priced at $35,650 per ton, up 0.85% [38][39]. Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index was reported at 197.72, down 8.22% over the past two weeks, but up 20.72% year-to-date. Light rare earths like praseodymium-neodymium oxide saw a price drop of 10.22% [51][52]. Energy Metals - As of October 24, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was 407,500 RMB per ton, up 16.60% over the past two weeks, and the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%) was 89,850 RMB per ton, up 18.22% [57][58].

Copper Market Overview - LME copper price increased by 3.17% to $10,947.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.95% to ¥87,700 per ton [1] - Import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$42.7 per ton, indicating supply pressure [1] - National copper inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 181.6 thousand tons, primarily due to lower import and domestic supply [1] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 57.7%, with a slight expected decrease next week [1] - Domestic copper wire and cable enterprises' operating rate was 62.34%, showing a minor increase but overall demand remains weak [1] Aluminum Market Overview - LME aluminum price rose by 2.75% to $2,856.50 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum increased by 1.51% to ¥21,200 per ton [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply [2] - Despite high operational capacity in alumina production, the overall supply remains excessive, leading to expectations of continued price declines [2] - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises recorded at 62.4%, showing stability but with internal differentiation [2] Gold Market Overview - COMEX gold price decreased by 5.66% to $4,126.9 per ounce, influenced by U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical risks [3] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 11.73 tons to 1,046.93 tons, reflecting market sentiment [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has disrupted key economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [3] Rare Earth Market Overview - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide price decreased by 1.35%, aligning with previous expectations of price fluctuations [4] - The outlook for overseas replenishment is positive, with potential price increases anticipated [4] - The strategic importance of rare earths is highlighted, with a bullish view on companies like China Rare Earth, Guangxi Chaozhou, and others [4] Lithium and Cobalt Market Overview - Carbonate lithium price increased by 1.97% to ¥74,500 per ton, while hydroxide lithium rose by 0.15% to ¥78,300 per ton [5] - Cobalt prices surged by 7% to ¥407,500 per ton, indicating strong demand in the market [5] - Nickel prices saw a slight increase, with LME nickel price at $15,300 per ton [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term, driven by supply disruptions and ongoing negotiations between the US and China [4] - Aluminum prices are on the rise due to continuous inventory depletion, while the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [4] - Lithium prices are recovering from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season, with a notable decrease in inventory [4] - Cobalt prices are likely to continue rising due to the implementation of export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may tighten supply [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report indicates that the US CPI for September was lower than expected, which may influence market conditions [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the non-ferrous sector increased by 1.13%, underperforming the index by 1.75 percentage points [11][12] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous sector is 27.27, with a weekly change of 0.68, while the PB is 3.17, reflecting a 0.09 change [21][24] 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased by 2.61% in London and 3.95% in Shanghai, with inventories decreasing [26] - Aluminum prices rose by 2.78% in London and 1.14% in Shanghai, with a notable increase in aluminum enterprise profits [36] - Lead and zinc prices also saw increases, with lead prices up by 2.00% and zinc by 2.48% [47] - Lithium prices for lithium carbonate rose by 2.79% to 75,400 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene increased by 4.14% to 881 USD/ton [76] - Cobalt prices saw a significant increase, with MB cobalt rising by 7.75% to 22.60 USD/pound [89]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a mixed outlook for various metals, with specific attention to the strategic importance of rare earths and the impact of supply chain adjustments on prices [1][5]. Copper - LME copper price decreased by 3.05% to $10,374.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper increased by 3.37% to ¥85,900 per ton [2]. - Domestic copper inventory rose by 18,000 tons to 166,300 tons due to increased domestic supply and weak downstream consumption [2]. - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises increased by 1.41 percentage points to 53.04%, with expectations for further increases next week [2]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.63% to $2,746.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 1.45% to ¥21,000 per ton [3]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory reached 649,000 tons, up by 57,000 tons from September 29 [3]. - The operating rate for primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 58.0%, influenced by demand release and unclear orders [3]. Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 1.28% to $4,035.50 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 3.99 tons to 1,017.16 tons [4][5]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to the U.S. government shutdown and economic indicators reflecting a slowdown in employment growth [4][5]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.89% this week, with China's control over rare earths being upgraded, enhancing the sector's strategic attributes [1][5]. - The implementation of the "Interim Measures" is expected to gradually show effects on supply adjustments [1][5]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the sector, highlighting companies like China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth [1][5]. Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.12%, but demand for photovoltaic glass is recovering, indicating a potential price turning point [5]. - The implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant wires may boost demand for antimony [5]. Tin - Tin price increased by 5.16% due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines, leading to supply disruptions [6]. - The report anticipates that tin prices will remain strong despite macroeconomic fluctuations [6]. Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate remained stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.19% to ¥78,500 per ton [6]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices surged, with a 17.8% increase to ¥349,500 per ton, driven by rising demand and supply constraints [6]. Nickel - LME nickel price decreased by 1.3% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price increased by 1.4% to ¥122,000 per ton [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry index decreased by 0.63% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index, ranking 12th among 31 first-level industries [2][14] - Energy metals (up 4.49%) and industrial metals (up 1.05%) showed positive performance, while metal new materials (-4.08%), precious metals (-0.95%), and minor metals (-8.51%) experienced declines [2][14] Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, COMEX gold closed at $3,789.80 per ounce, up 2.96% over two weeks; COMEX silver closed at $46.37 per ounce, up 8.63% [3][21] - LME copper settled at $10,125.50 per ton, increasing by 1.21% over two weeks; LME aluminum fell to $2,643 per ton, down 2.38% [3][20] - Cobalt prices surged, with electrolytic cobalt averaging 310,000 CNY per ton, up 13.55% over two weeks, and cobalt sulfate averaging 65,000 CNY per ton, up 20.82% [3][53] Major Events - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest copper mines globally, has suspended operations due to a fatal landslide, significantly impacting global copper supply [4][59] - The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency awarded a contract to U.S. Antimony Corporation worth up to $245 million for supplying antimony metal [59][60] Investment Recommendations - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, the report suggests focusing on investment opportunities that combine "resources + growth" themes, while monitoring geopolitical and export policy changes in major resource countries [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a positive trend in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant increases in various metal prices and indices, indicating a robust market performance [1][2]. Market Overview - As of September 26, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21% to 3828.11 points, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.07% to 4550.05 points. The SW Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index saw a notable increase of 3.52%, reaching 6752.28 points [1][2]. - Among the five sub-sectors of non-ferrous metals, industrial metals and precious metals experienced the highest increases at 5.15% and 5.55%, respectively, while minor metals and new materials saw slight declines [1][2]. Key Metal Price Data - Key metal prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange as of this week include: - Copper: 82,470 CNY/ton (+3.37%) - Aluminum: 20,745 CNY/ton (-0.36%) - Zinc: 21,980 CNY/ton (-0.36%) - Lead: 17,110 CNY/ton (-0.41%) - Nickel: 121,380 CNY/ton (-0.10%) - Tin: 274,070 CNY/ton (+1.94%) [3]. - Gold and silver prices also increased, with gold at 856.06 CNY/gram (+3.17%) and silver at 10,632 CNY/kilogram (+6.98%) [3]. - The COMEX prices for gold and silver were reported at 3,790 USD/ounce (+2.27%) and 46.37 USD/ounce (+7.95%), respectively [3]. Investment Recommendations - Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is expected to see a 4% reduction in copper sales for Q3 2025 due to an accident, with a significant production drop anticipated for 2026 [4]. - The accident at Grasberg is projected to lower global copper supply expectations for 2025 and 2026, potentially increasing copper prices during that period. Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, Jincheng Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo's new export quota policy will allow for a significant reduction in cobalt exports, leading to a projected supply shortage in 2026. Companies of interest include Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt [5].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the fluctuations in prices and production levels of various metals, including lithium, copper, aluminum, gold, and rare earth elements, indicating a mixed market sentiment influenced by supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and monetary policy changes [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Lithium and Cobalt - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.69% to 73,100 yuan/ton, while the average price of lithium hydroxide fell by 0.93% to 79,000 yuan/ton. The total production of lithium carbonate increased to 20,400 tons, up by 400 tons week-on-week [1][6]. - The price of cobalt increased by 0.7% to 275,000 yuan/ton, with cobalt intermediate prices rising by 2.3% to $14.45 per pound [6]. Group 2: Copper - LME copper prices fell by 0.68% to $9,996.50/ton, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 1.42% to 79,900 yuan/ton. The weekly copper inventory in major regions decreased by 5,300 tons to 148,900 tons due to reduced imports and domestic supply [2]. - The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.49%, a week-on-week increase of 2.96%, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling [2]. Group 3: Aluminum - LME aluminum prices dropped by 0.93% to $2,676.00/ton, and Shanghai aluminum prices fell by 1.54% to 20,800 yuan/ton. Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1,000 tons week-on-week [3]. - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises slightly increased to 62.2%, although it still showed a year-on-year decline of 1.3% [3]. Group 4: Gold - COMEX gold prices remained unchanged at $3,719.40/oz, while SPDR gold holdings increased by 17.75 tons to 994.56 tons. The market is experiencing volatility due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks [4][5]. Group 5: Rare Earths and Antimony - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide have started to recover, attributed to the implementation of new regulations and supply chain improvements. The export volume of magnetic materials surged in July, indicating potential for further price increases [5]. - Antimony demand is expected to rise due to new certification requirements for flame-retardant cables, alongside a global supply decline [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to fluctuations in copper prices, with a focus on demand during the peak season of September and October [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to a potential extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could accelerate the depletion of raw material inventories [4] - Lithium prices are anticipated to rebound from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. retail sales for August exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [8] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the upper limit of the benchmark rate from 4.5% to 4.25% [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with a decline of 4.02% compared to a 1.30% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is 23.96, down by 0.80 from the previous week, while the PB_LF valuation is 2.87, down by 0.09 [19] 3. Copper - Copper prices saw a decline, with LME copper down 0.85% and SHFE copper down 1.42% [24] - Domestic copper inventories increased by 12.50%, indicating a potential oversupply [24] 4. Aluminum - Aluminum prices decreased, with LME aluminum down 0.43% and SHFE aluminum down 1.00% [35] - The aluminum industry is facing a profit margin squeeze, with profits down to 4,793 CNY/ton [35] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 1.45% to 73,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices rose by 2.02% to 859 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium prices may have bottomed out and are expected to recover [74] 6. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt rising by 0.93% to 16.30 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices up by 1.84% to 277,000 CNY/ton [86] - The potential extension of the DRC's cobalt export ban could lead to a significant price rebound [86]