有色金属 2026 年 01 月 03 日 行 业 研 究 有色金属 20260103 周报：贵金属价格冲高回落，碳酸锂去 库放缓价格高位震荡 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：提保抑制投机需求，贵金属价格冲高回落。本周黄金价格上 涨受限，这一现象并非孤立，而是受到了美元走强和美国国债收益率上升 的双重压制。此外，芝商所在12月30日的公告中表示，黄金、白银、铂金 和钯金合约的保证金将在周三收盘后上调，这是芝商所一周内第二次上调 贵金属期货保证金，也是该交易所本月第三次上调白银期货保证金。保证 金连续上调通常被视为市场过热的降温信号，有助于抑制投机情绪。宏观 经济数据走弱叠加地缘博弈升级，进一步提升黄金避险属性和配置价值。 个股：黄金关注招金灵宝万国紫金黄金，A股关注紫金、中金、赤峰及西金 等；H股关注潼关、山金、招矿及集海等。银铂钯均为黄金的贝塔，个股关 注盛达、湖银、豫光、贵研及浩通等。 工业金属：以旧换新补贴延续，铜价后续仍有上涨空间。铜，联储纪 要显示多数联储官员支持加息，但分歧加大，市场仍预期2026年降息两次。 发改委发布2026年优化实施两新政策方案，继续实施汽车和消费品以旧换 新，符 ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色持续反弹，镍领涨 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价维持颓势，沪铜主力期价跌至 9.6 万关口，今日持续回 升，主力期价尾盘收于 9.8 万关口。临近元旦假期，叠加铜价短期积 累较大涨幅，资金了结意愿较强导致铜价高位跳水。今日国内宏观 氛围回暖，下方承接力量较强，推动铜价持续反弹。产业层面，昨 夜铜价大幅下挫，今 ...

【铝&氧化铝&铝合金】 今日沪铝冲高回落偏强震荡，华东、中原、华南现货贴水大幅扩大至-200元、-390元、-280元，铝锭铝棒社库 较上周四分别增加2.8万吨和1.2万吨。近期贵金属有色亢奋，沪铝跟涨为主，多头背靠40日线持有，但铝市基 本面驱动不足，表观需求和现货反馈不佳，暂谨慎看待上方空间。今日保太ADC12现货报价上调200元至21900 元。废铝依然偏紧，税务调整令部分地区成本面临上调。宏观驱动下铸造铝合金与沪铝价差季节性表现弱于往 年、价差维持在千元附近。上周发改委发文提及对氧化铝等强资源约束型产业强化管理,氧化铝盘面大幅上 涨，但政策指导落地还需要时间。氧化铝平衡持续处于显著过刺，随着铝土矿价格回落成本有下降空间，现金 成本核算仍有利润。短期氧化铝价格接近触发减产,跌势放缓,多空博弈加剧放大盘面波动,但中期企稳还需 等待规模减产形成。 【锌】 TC继续回落，炼厂减产延续，SMM锌社库环比下滑1.3万吨至11.19万吨，比价不利于锌锭进口。供应端压力减 弱,但消费处谈季,叠加元旦假期临近,资金短线交投为主,沪锌缺乏方向性驱动,反复测试2.3万整数关。 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，追求"开门红 ...

铜：本周LME铜价+2.21%到12133.0美元/吨，沪铜+5.95%到9.87万元/吨。供应端，据SMM，进口铜精 矿加工费周度指数跌至-44.9美元/吨；截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存环比周一增加14.96%，连续三 周累库，总库存同比去年同期增长8.82万吨。冶炼端，据SMM，本周SMM废产阳极板企业开工率为 64.60%，环比下降1.08个百分点。预计下周开工率环比下降0.62个百分点至64.06%。消费端，据SMM， 本周国内铜线缆企业开工率双降，行业表现承压。受铜价高位拖累，采购情绪与新增订单疲软，叠加成 本倒挂，企业减产增多。元旦临近，订单颓势难改，预期下周开工率继续回落；高铜价对市场需求形成 显著抑制，本周国内漆包线行业表现未达预期，行业开机率环比下降1.67个百分点，回落至76.6%。近 期铜价快速冲高并再创阶段性新高，终端企业采购意愿降至冰点，企业陷入观望"躺平"状态。铜价高位 运行背景下，漆包线行业需求抑制效应持续凸显，短期内景气度将延续低迷态势。 铝：本周LME铝价+0.03%到2956.50美元/吨，沪铝+0.99%到2.24万元/吨。供应端，据SMM，本周四国 内主流消费地电解铝 ...

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.21% to $12,133.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 5.95% to 98,700 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 14.96% week-on-week, with total inventory up by 88,200 tons year-on-year [1] - High copper prices are suppressing market demand, leading to a decline in operating rates for domestic wire and cable enterprises [1] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 0.03% to $2,956.50 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.99% to 22,400 yuan per ton [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded 617,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 17,000 tons [2] - The overall operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8% due to weak orders and high aluminum prices [2] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 3.24% to $4,505.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 15.73 tons to 1,068.27 tons [3] - Geopolitical risks are influencing the gold market, leading to a strong oscillation pattern [3] - The market is anticipating significant developments in international relations that could impact gold prices [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 3.33% this week [4] - China's rare earth permanent magnet exports in November increased by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the same period [4] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is boosting demand forecasts for rare earths [4] Group 5: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 6.94% to 103,400 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide rose by 3.22% to 89,800 yuan per ton [5] - Lithium production increased to 22,200 tons this week, with a slight rise in output [5] - The supply-demand balance remains stable, with strong demand from the new energy sector supporting high prices [5] Group 6: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.85% this week, attributed to profit-taking by speculative funds [4] - The outlook remains positive for antimony prices due to expected recovery in exports and stable demand [4] - Resource scarcity and reduced production from overseas mines are expected to support upward price trends [4] Group 7: Tin - Tin price decreased by 1.07% this week, with inventory increasing by 4.72% [4] - Supply disruptions in major overseas tin mining regions are contributing to price fluctuations [4] - The long-term outlook for tin remains positive due to expected demand growth in sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [4] Group 8: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 7.0% to $15,700 per ton, while Shanghai nickel rose by 12.0% to 125,000 yuan per ton [5] - Nickel market sentiment turned optimistic due to potential supply tightening from Indonesia [5] - Current market dynamics reflect a balance between strong expectations and weak demand realities [5]

今天有色金属板块出现回调，紫金矿业、赤峰黄金、华友钴业等纷纷下跌。此前，在美联储降息、地缘风险及央行购 金的背景下，许多有色金属公司有过一波上涨，今年有色金属ETF的涨幅也相当喜人。 在此背景下，紫金矿业投资的一家矿产公司正冲击A股IPO。格隆汇获悉，12月4日，福建马坑矿业股份有限公司（简 称"马矿股份"）向上交所递交招股书申报稿，拟在沪主板上市，保荐人为中信证券。 马矿股份主要产品为 TFe 65%的造球铁精粉和Mo 40%的钼精矿。2022年至2025年上半年（简称"报告期"），铁精粉产 品为公司贡献了93%以上的营收，钼精矿的营收占比从4.13%提升至6.47%，石灰石的营收占比很低。 马矿股份主营铁矿石的采选、综合利用及铁精粉、钼精矿销售，石灰石的开采和销售。如今铁矿石和钼矿市场情况如 何？不妨通过马矿股份来一探究竟。 01 超9成营收来自铁精粉，存在客户集中风险 马矿股份现有业务经营依靠马坑铁矿一座大型矿山，除此之外未拥有其他矿山。公司持有马坑铁矿的采矿权有效期限 至2054年末。 截至2024年末，马坑铁矿的铁矿石保有资源储量约3.3亿吨，共伴生4.43万吨钼矿（以金属量计量），水泥用灰岩矿 3 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market rotation has accelerated, and the risk appetite has decreased. However, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology and growth are still the main market trends. Index investment should focus on buying on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market supply - demand pattern may improve, but it will maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. - For most commodities, the market situation is complex. Some are expected to strengthen due to factors such as supply disturbances and cost support, while others may face pressure due to factors such as over - supply and weak demand. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - events and industry fundamentals [41][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%. The National Space Administration established the Commercial Space Department. The central bank continued to ban virtual currencies. Metal prices soared on Friday, with silver and copper hitting record highs [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market rotation has accelerated, and the risk appetite has decreased. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the index should be bought on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In November, the manufacturing PMI improved, and the non - manufacturing business activity index declined. Japan revised its bond issuance plan. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Friday, with a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In November, the manufacturing PMI data showed an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment, but the service industry was weak. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose. COMEX gold and silver also had certain prices. Silver has entered the accelerated peak - hitting stage, and its technical trend conforms to the characteristics of previous second - stage rises. The current overseas position and inventory levels are not in a state of "delivery difficulties" [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The silver price is in an accelerated rise, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, profits should be taken in time. It is risky to open new long positions or short at high prices. Shanghai gold is at the end of a triangular convergence breakthrough pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Concerns about smelting production cuts led copper prices to break through historical highs. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic futures exchange inventory decreased. The domestic spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors still exist, but the market focuses on the Fed's interest rate meeting. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the expectation of smelting production cuts drives copper prices to rise. The downstream operating rate is stable and strong, so copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen [12]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded on Friday. The inventory of domestic and LME aluminum ingots continued to decline. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to decline, and the trading was average [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of domestic and LME aluminum ingots is at a relatively low level. Coupled with supply disturbances, stable downstream operating rates, and rising copper prices, the center of gravity of aluminum prices is expected to rise further [14]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The LME zinc price fell. The domestic social zinc inventory decreased slightly, but the total inventory increased after considering the in - transit and factory inventories. The zinc import was at a loss [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has increased, but the zinc concentrate TC has continued to decline, and the zinc smelting profit is under pressure. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally. The current situation of the zinc industry is not in resonance with the strong macro - sentiment, so zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. The LME lead price also rose. The domestic social lead inventory decreased slightly. The refined - scrap price difference was at par [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the primary smelting operating rate has declined, and the secondary smelting operating rate has continued to rise. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate has increased marginally, and the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots has decreased. In the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the sentiment of the non - ferrous metals industry is relatively positive, so lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly on Friday. The spot price premiums of different brands were stable, and the nickel ore price was stable, while the nickel iron price continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but with the stabilization of nickel iron prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the trends of nickel iron and ore prices [19]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price rose. The inventory of the futures exchange increased, and the LME tin inventory also increased. The supply of tin concentrate has been slightly relieved, but the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) has affected transportation. The demand in traditional fields is weak, but emerging fields provide long - term support. The social inventory has decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the demand in the tin market is weak in the short - term, the supply disturbance is the decisive factor for short - term prices. Therefore, tin prices are likely to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, while the futures price increased. The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of fundamentals boosts the bullish sentiment, but there are differences in future demand expectations. The change of the mining permit of Jiaxiawo Mine is a short - term positive for the spot but a long - term negative for supply. It is recommended to wait and see or use options, and pay attention to the cell production schedule in the first quarter and the atmosphere of the equity market [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose. The domestic spot price was at a premium to the futures. The overseas price fell, and the import window was opened. The futures inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas ore shipment will gradually recover, and the alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot prices in different markets were stable or decreased. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures and social inventories decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel mill production is at a high level, the demand has improved marginally, but the cost pressure has squeezed the profit, and the inventory pressure is still significant. The market lacks a clear upward momentum, so stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [27]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and there are policy disturbances on the supply side. The demand is relatively average, so the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The spot prices in different regions were stable or increased [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market adjusted on Friday, and the prices of steel products fluctuated. The supply and demand of rebar decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The anti - dumping tax imposed by South Korea on Chinese steel will affect exports. The demand for steel has entered the off - season, so attention should be paid to the actual progress of production cuts and important meetings [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price fell. The spot price was at a premium to the futures, and the port inventory increased [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, the demand weakened, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and the steel mill profitability was at a low level. The overall inventory of iron ore is still high, but there are structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillatory range [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price rose, the inventory decreased, and the trading volume of long and short positions decreased. The soda ash main contract price rose slightly, the inventory decreased, and the trading volume of long and short positions also decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: For glass, the supply has shrunk, the market sentiment has improved briefly, but the overall trading is still light, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices. For soda ash, the industry operating rate has increased slightly, the inventory has decreased slightly, the price is stable, but it is still recommended to be bearish in the short - term [37][38]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract price was flat. The prices of the two in the spot market were stable, and the spot was at a premium to the futures [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has improved. The black - building materials sector is still in a weak state, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. For manganese silicon, the fundamentals are not ideal, and there are no major contradictions. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [41][42]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract price rose slightly. The spot price was stable, and the trading volume decreased [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term trading volume of industrial silicon has decreased, and the trend has become dull. The production has continued to decline, the demand from the polysilicon sector has weakened, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The price is easily affected by the sentiment of other new - energy varieties [44]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures main contract price rose. The spot prices of different types were stable, and the futures was at a premium to the spot [45][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of polysilicon is expected to decline in December, the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. The spot price is stable, and there are risks in the near - month contract due to delivery games. Attention should be paid to the final implementation of the platform company [47]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded. The flood in the Thai rubber - producing area receded, and the exchange inventory was low. The tire factory operating rate was weak, and the inventory increased [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to adopt a neutral strategy, wait and see, or conduct short - term trading. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE crude oil futures price rose, and the prices of related refined oil products also rose. The gasoline and diesel inventories in Singapore decreased, while the fuel oil inventory increased [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the OPEC supply has not increased significantly. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy is maintained, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [54]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot and futures prices rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The potential positive factors of Iranian plant shutdowns have been realized, the market has stopped falling and stabilized, and the market expectation has changed. The supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to turn to an oscillatory adjustment after the positive factors are realized. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side trading and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity [55]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot and futures prices rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The price has support from export policies and costs, so it is recommended to consider buying at low prices [57]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, the basis decreased. The styrene spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and the valuation has a large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still wide, the styrene operating rate is rising, and the inventory is accumulating. When the inventory reversal point occurs, the non - integrated profit of styrene can be long [59]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative. The production cost increased, the operating rate increased, and the inventory increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is at a low level, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export cannot digest the excess capacity. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [61][62]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price rose, the spot price fell, the basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased. The supply load increased, the downstream load increased slightly, and the port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is expected to decrease in December, the import volume will decrease slightly, and the port inventory accumulation may slow down. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is still weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices [64]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative. The PTA operating rate increased, the downstream load increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The unexpected maintenance of PTA is expected to decrease. The downstream polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the bottle - chip load is difficult to increase. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space, and the PX has a risk of a slight valuation correction [66]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 3 spread was negative. The p - xylene operating rate decreased, the downstream PTA operating rate increased, the import volume increased, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, the downstream PTA operating rate is low, and the PX inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction [68]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, the spot price was stable, the basis weakened, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth may support oil prices. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. The supply is limited, the inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices

Group 1: Aluminum Market - LME aluminum price increased by 0.52% to $2877.00 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum rose by 0.99% to 21,800 yuan per ton [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded at 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to earlier in the week [3] - National alumina production capacity stands at 110.32 million tons per year, with operational capacity at 89.56 million tons per year; weekly operating rate decreased by 0.81 percentage points to 81.18% [3] Group 2: Copper Market - LME copper price rose by 1.53% to $10,859.00 per ton, and Shanghai copper increased by 1.12% to 86,900 yuan per ton [2] - Import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$42.21 per ton; national inventory increased by 5,200 tons to 201,100 tons [2] - Domestic waste anode plate production remains high with an operating rate of 73.62%, expected to rise by 2.61 percentage points next week [2] Group 3: Gold Market - COMEX gold price increased by 4.16% to $4,174.50 per ounce; SPDR gold holdings rose by 6.87 tons to 1,048.93 tons [4] - Market influenced by U.S. political dysfunction and geopolitical risks, leading to a strong oscillation pattern [4] Group 4: Rare Earth and Antimony - Praseodymium and neodymium prices decreased by 1.40%; rare earth prices expected to rise due to increased demand following the suspension of control measures [5] - Antimony price increased by 15.5% due to resource scarcity and reduced global supply [5] Group 5: Tin and Lithium - Tin price increased by 3.11% as Indonesia cracks down on illegal mining [6] - Lithium carbonate price rose by 3.14% to 83,200 yuan per ton, with total production at 21,500 tons [6]

Group 1: Copper Market Insights - The core viewpoint indicates that copper prices may experience high-level fluctuations in the short term due to positive expectations from China-US negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with copper prices reaching over 89,000 yuan/ton [1] - The Grasberg mine, the world's second-largest copper mine, is expected to halt production until 2027, leading to a projected 35% decrease in output by 2026, potentially resulting in a global copper shortage [1] - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while global supply disruptions and insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining may lead to a supply-demand shift towards shortage, supporting a potential price increase [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market Insights - Aluminum prices are on the rise due to inventory depletion and expanding profits in electrolytic aluminum, with Shanghai aluminum prices reaching 21,300 yuan/ton and a week-on-week inventory decrease of 3.89% [1] - The alumina market remains oversupplied, with production capacity at 90.657 million tons/year and an operating rate of 82.18%, leading to a price decline in the short term [1] - The aluminum supply is nearing its ceiling, while stable demand growth may lead to a potential shortage next year, indicating an upward trend in aluminum prices [1] Group 3: Lithium and Cobalt Market Insights - Lithium demand has exceeded expectations, with lithium carbonate and spodumene prices rising, and a 1.1% decrease in carbonate lithium production alongside a 2.3% drop in inventory [2] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to the Democratic Republic of Congo implementing an export quota system, which has led to tighter supply and increased prices for MB cobalt and domestic cobalt [2] - The production forecast for cobalt in 2024 is 220,000 tons, with export quotas accounting for 44%, indicating a potential shift from oversupply to tight supply conditions [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on copper-related investment opportunities due to favorable negotiations, interest rate cuts, and supply disruptions [3] - Attention is recommended for the aluminum sector, where inventory depletion and stable demand growth may lead to price increases [3] - The lithium and cobalt sectors are also highlighted, with expectations of price recovery due to increased lithium battery demand and tightening cobalt supply [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform in line with the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index decreased by 1.97% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 23rd among 31 first-level industries [2][13]. - Precious metals experienced a significant decline, with gold prices dropping by 3.30% and silver by 4.38% in the last week [3][22]. - The report highlights the importance of geopolitical factors and domestic demand recovery in shaping future investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index fell by 1.97% from October 13 to October 24, 2025, with all sub-sectors showing declines, particularly precious metals which dropped by 7.89% [2][13]. Precious Metals - As of October 24, COMEX gold closed at $4,126.90 per ounce, down 3.30% over the past week, while year-to-date it has increased by 54.50%. COMEX silver closed at $48.41 per ounce, down 4.38% over the past week, with a year-to-date increase of 61.42% [3][22]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $10,807.00 per ton, up 0.67% over the past two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 24.43%. Domestic copper prices averaged 87,040 RMB per ton, up 0.85% over the same period [30][31]. Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 279,000 RMB per ton, up 3.72% over the past two weeks, while LME tin was priced at $35,650 per ton, up 0.85% [38][39]. Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index was reported at 197.72, down 8.22% over the past two weeks, but up 20.72% year-to-date. Light rare earths like praseodymium-neodymium oxide saw a price drop of 10.22% [51][52]. Energy Metals - As of October 24, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was 407,500 RMB per ton, up 16.60% over the past two weeks, and the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%) was 89,850 RMB per ton, up 18.22% [57][58].