Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to the combination of low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output, stable - to - positive downstream demand in some sectors like power and automotive, and weak real estate. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and improved concentrate supply this year, smelting supply may resume. Domestic automotive and infrastructure sectors show positive or stable growth, while home appliance output growth slows and real estate remains weak. Monitor US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance production [2]. Summary by Category Price Performance - Copper had a night - session price increase, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 78,640 yuan/ton, a LME 3 - month closing price of 9,721 dollars/ton, and a LME spot - to - 3 - month spread of - 90.75 dollars/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,150 tons [2]. - Aluminum's domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,570 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,577 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 2.28 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 479,525 tons [2]. - Zinc's night - session price rose. Its domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,285 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,786 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 9.33 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,650 tons to 72,200 tons [2]. - Nickel's domestic previous - day futures closing price was 119,930 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 15,008 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 195.01 dollars/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,086 tons to 209,328 tons [2]. - Lead's domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,725 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 1,982 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 39.48 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 22,475 tons to 282,950 tons [2]. - Tin's domestic previous - day futures closing price was 267,840 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 33,775 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was 32.00 dollars/ton. LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons to 1,630 tons [2]. Market Conditions - For copper, domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry maintaining positive growth, automotive production and sales growing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak [2]. - For zinc, domestic automotive production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. Concentrate supply has improved significantly this year, and smelting supply may recover [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a pattern of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon on Thursday, with the main contracts of stock index futures rising and falling differently. The market is influenced by domestic and overseas news and capital flows. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at an appropriate time and maintain a moderately bullish attitude [2][3][6]. - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The bond market is under pressure from the equity market, but considering financial and inflation data, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [7][9]. - The prices of precious metals rose first and then fell. The market is affected by factors such as the US PPI data and the attitude of the Federal Reserve towards interest rate cuts. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and hold long positions in silver or construct a bullish spread strategy using silver put options [10][12][13]. - The main contract of container shipping futures fluctuated. Due to the high growth rate of container capacity and weak European demand, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [14][15]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; alumina is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high levels in the medium - term; aluminum is expected to be under pressure at high levels; zinc and tin are expected to fluctuate; nickel and stainless steel are expected to adjust within a range; lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in a bullish range [19][21][23]. - The prices of black metals also showed different trends. Steel prices are supported by limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions; iron ore prices are expected to follow the trend of steel prices, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see; coking coal and coke prices have seen their futures prices peak and fall back, and it is recommended to take profit on speculative positions and wait and see [41][44][46]. - For agricultural products, the long - term outlook for meal products is positive, but short - term profit - taking is recommended; the price of live pigs is oscillating at a low level, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of the slaughter volume; the upward movement of corn prices is limited, and attention should be paid to short opportunities; the price of sugar is expected to be bearish [53][55][56]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the A - share market rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures rose and fell differently, and most of the basis was at a discount [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, the State Council issued a decision to modify the regulations on the entry and exit of foreigners. Overseas, the US Treasury Secretary made statements on issues such as drug tariffs, the sale of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac equity, and interest rate cuts [3][4]. - **Capital Flow**: On August 14, the trading volume of the A - share market reached 2.28 trillion. The central bank conducted 1287 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan on the same day [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell put options on MO2509 at an appropriate time and maintain a moderately bullish attitude [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, and long - term bonds performed weaker [7]. - **Capital Flow**: The central bank conducted 1287 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan on August 14. It is expected to conduct 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month reverse repurchase operations on August 15 to maintain capital stability [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: In late July, China's M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and M0 increased by 11.8%. The increase in RMB loans, deposits, and social financing scale in the first seven months was significant [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing. The 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75% [9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: The US PPI in July rebounded significantly year - on - year, and the first - time unemployment claims in the week of August 9 were slightly lower than expected. The prices of precious metals rose first and then fell. The international gold price fell 0.63%, and the international silver price fell 1.32% [10][12]. - **Future Outlook**: Although the market sentiment has been affected by trade agreements, the US economic data in July has deteriorated, and there is still a demand for hedging. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and hold long positions in silver or construct a bullish spread strategy using silver put options [12][13]. - **Capital Flow**: The weak US economy stimulates the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the allocation funds have a high interest in precious metals. The positions of gold and silver ETFs are expected to increase [13]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures (EC) - **Spot Quotations**: As of August 15, the spot quotations of major shipping companies were provided [14]. - **Container Shipping Index**: As of August 11, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index decreased. As of August 8, the SCFI composite index also decreased [14]. - **Fundamentals**: As of August 11, the global container capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI in July was 50.9, and the US manufacturing PMI in July was 48 [14]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [15]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and the average premium increased. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [16]. - **Macro**: The US CPI in July increased moderately, and the market expected the probability of an interest rate cut in September to increase. Trump signed an extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days [16][19]. - **Supply**: The TC of copper concentrate increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to decrease slightly in August [17]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased and increased respectively. The domestic demand was resilient, but it was under marginal pressure in Q3 [18]. - **Inventory**: COMEX and LME inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78000 - 79500 [19]. Alumina - **Spot**: On August 14, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [19]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [20]. - **Inventory**: On August 14, the port inventory decreased, and the registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [20]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high levels in the medium - term, with the main contract operating in the range of 3000 - 3400 [21]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the average premium increased [22]. - **Supply**: In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased [22]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream industries increased slightly [22]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory also increased [23]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 20000 - 21000 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On August 14, the spot prices of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [24]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and it is expected to remain stable in August [24]. - **Demand**: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the market trading activity decreased [24]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and the inventories in some areas were close to full [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract referring to 19400 - 20400 [25]. Zinc - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [25][26]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate remained unchanged. The domestic refined zinc production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to increase further from January to August [26]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high [27]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22000 - 23000 [28]. Tin - **Spot**: On August 14, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the downstream procurement increased slightly [29]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports in June decreased. The actual tin ore output in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter [29][30]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased in June. The LME inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [31]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of refined nickel increased, and the monthly production is expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, the demand for stainless steel was general, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [32]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory was high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory decreased [32]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 120000 - 126000 [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased [34]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was stable, the price of nickel iron increased, and the price of ferrochrome was expected to be stable [34]. - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in August increased slightly [35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the futures inventory increased [35]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, with the main contract referring to 13000 - 13500 [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [37]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it is expected to increase in August. The supply is relatively sufficient, but the growth rate has slowed down [38]. - **Demand**: The demand is optimistic, and the demand in August is expected to increase [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly last week, with the upstream inventory decreasing and the downstream and other links replenishing inventory [39]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and lightly go long at low prices. The price is expected to fluctuate in a bullish range around 85,000 [40]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel price decreased, and the basis strengthened [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased, but the steel price also increased, and the steel mill's profit increased [41]. - **Supply**: From January to July, the iron element production increased. In August, the production increased compared with July, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation from August to September [42]. - **Demand**: From January to July, the apparent demand for five major steel products was basically the same year - on - year. The domestic demand decreased, and the foreign demand increased. Currently, the apparent demand has decreased [42]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory increased significantly, mainly in the hands of traders [43]. - **View**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3200 yuan for rebar [44]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [45]. - **Futures**: The prices of iron ore futures decreased [45]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [45]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly [45]. - **Supply**: This week, the global iron ore shipment and arrival volume decreased [46]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily average dredging volume increased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price peaked and fell back, and the price of some coal varieties in the spot auction loosened [47]. - **Supply**: The coal mine's operating rate decreased, and the output decreased slightly [47][48]. - **Demand**: The coking plant's operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream demand for iron water was high but may decrease in August [48]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, and the demand for downstream replenishment weakened [48]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [49][50]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price peaked and fell back, and the sixth - round price increase of coke was implemented. There is still an expectation of a seventh - round price increase [51][52]. - **Profit**: The coke enterprise's profit improved [51]. - **Supply**: The coking plant's operating rate increased due to the price increase [52]. - **Demand**: The demand for iron water was high but may decrease in August [52]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, and the downstream still had a demand for replenishment [52]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore [52]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was 100 tons [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The US new - crop soybean export sales were higher than expected, and Brazil's soybean production, crushing volume, and export volume were all revised upwards [54]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA monthly report supported the US soybean price, and the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed supported the rapeseed meal price. However, short - term profit - taking occurred, and it is recommended to close the position and wait and see. The overall trend is upward [55]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price fluctuated strongly. The profit of different breeding models changed, and the average slaughter weight increased [56][57]. - **Market Outlook**: The current supply and demand are weak. The group's slaughter volume is expected to increase in August, and the later pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to blindly short the far - month 01 contract, and attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [57]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price in some