近期双硅价格跟随整个黑色板块反弹,但总体看来驱动仍不足。基本面上,钢材价格承压格局不变,钢厂利润收缩,铁水 下调整,直接需求走弱预期较强。随着终端需求淡季来临,负反馈压力逐步累积。整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏高 合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足,中期供给过剩压力仍不减。由于供需过剩,合金厂库存累积较快,仓单数量趋于累积。 近期双硅供给偏高而需求偏弱,虽然成本支撑走强,但供需过剩格局延续,价格将承压偏弱。 【焦煤焦炭】焦煤现货竞拍跌幅收窄,部分煤种小幅反弹 | | | | | | | | HE A F V FE W | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/04 | | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trading limit requirements imposed on two popular futures products, coking coal and lithium carbonate, which have led to a significant decrease in trading volumes for both commodities [1][2][3]. Trading Limits - On July 25, the Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that the daily opening position limit for the main coking coal futures contract (2509) would be capped at 500 lots, while other contracts would be limited to 2000 lots. Similarly, the daily opening position limit for lithium carbonate futures (LC2509) was set at 3000 lots [2][5]. Decrease in Trading Volume - Following the implementation of these trading limits, the trading volumes for both coking coal and lithium carbonate saw a decline of over 20%. Specifically, the total trading volume for coking coal futures dropped by 912,000 lots to 3,169,000 lots, while lithium carbonate futures fell by 690,000 lots to 1,705,000 lots, resulting in a total decrease of over 1.7 million lots across both products [3][7]. Market Reaction - The coking coal and coke markets experienced a decline, with prices dropping approximately 4% in night trading on July 25. The main coking coal contract closed at 1259 yuan/ton, reflecting a rebound of 77.57% from a low of 709 yuan/ton on June 3 [4][6]. Policy Impact and Market Sentiment - Despite the trading limits, market sentiment remained bullish, driven by the "anti-involution" policies that have been increasingly emphasized since late June. This has led to a rotation of funds into the ferrosilicon market, with significant price increases observed [8][7]. Future Expectations - The market anticipates further policy implementations to stabilize the industry. Discussions among major manganese alloy producers in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shanxi are expected to focus on achieving consensus on energy conservation and emissions reduction [8]. Additionally, the execution of production limits in coal mines remains uncertain, with many regions facing low production rates due to environmental and safety regulations [8][9]. Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the current supply-side policies are not as urgent or effective as those from previous years, and without corresponding demand-side measures, the sustainability of price increases may be challenged. The long-term outlook for coal prices remains under pressure due to difficulties in passing costs onto end consumers [9].