Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For gold 2508, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to fluctuate, and intraday to decline, with a suggestion to wait and see due to the easing of Sino - US relations which is negative for gold prices [1] - For nickel 2506, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to fluctuate, and intraday to be weakly fluctuating, with a suggestion to wait and see because of strong upstream nickel mines and weak downstream stainless steel [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, gold prices initially dropped nearly 2% in the Asian morning session, with New York gold approaching $3100, then rebounded, turning from decline to increase, and New York gold regained the $3200 mark with an amplitude of over $100 [3] - **Driving Logic**: The initial decline was due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the expectation of a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, and the improvement of global geopolitical situation, which reduced the demand for safe - haven assets. The subsequent rebound was because the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were postponed to Friday and neither leader would attend, which dispelled the expectation of a quick peace agreement, leading to the return of safe - haven funds. Also, poor US economic data, including retail data and PPI index falling short of expectations, increased the recession expectation and provided upward momentum for gold prices [3] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term gold prices have bottomed out and rebounded, with significant differences between bulls and bears. It is advisable to focus on the multi - empty game around the $3200 level of New York gold [3] Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: Since this week, the main nickel futures price has been broadly fluctuating in the range of 123,000 - 126,000 yuan [5] - **Driving Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector has been fluctuating upward due to internal and external macro - level positives, but nickel has been relatively weak. This is mainly because nickel prices are greatly affected by the industrial fundamentals, with strong upstream mines providing support and weak downstream demand exerting pressure. With a good macro - environment and neutral industrial performance, nickel prices may fluctuate strongly [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report Core View - The short - term view of gold 2508 is bearish, with a mid - term view of consolidation, and a short - term weakening outlook due to the easing of Sino - US relations which reduces the safe - haven demand and puts pressure on gold prices [1][3]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is bearish, the mid - term view is consolidation, and the intraday view is weakly consolidating. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel market affect the price [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: After the release of the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement on May 12, the short - term safe - haven demand decreased, and gold prices were under pressure. The Shanghai gold stabilized and consolidated at the 760 level, corresponding to New York gold at the 3200 level. After the market, overseas gold prices tumbled, with New York gold breaking below the 3200 - dollar mark, and Shanghai gold opened lower at the 750 - yuan level in the night session and weakly consolidated [3]. - **Policy Impact**: The US revoked 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods on May 14, and modified the 34% reciprocal tariff measures on Chinese goods, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. This led to a significant change in the international situation, an obvious increase in market risk appetite, and a sharp decline in safe - haven demand, resulting in the expected short - term weak operation of gold prices [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices continued to rebound. Due to the RRR cut and interest rate cut in China last week and the Sino - US joint statement this week, non - ferrous metals with low inventories such as copper and aluminum trended upward, but nickel's performance was relatively weak among non - ferrous metals, indicating that the industrial fundamentals were suppressing the upward movement of nickel prices [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The strong upstream nickel ore provides support for the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerts pressure. The overall trend of nickel prices is greatly affected by industrial fundamentals. With a good macro - environment, nickel prices are expected to consolidate with an upward bias, and the pressure at the April high should be continuously monitored [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 中美关系趋于缓和，利空金价 | | 镍 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 上游镍矿强势，下游不锈钢弱势 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：5 月 12 日盘后《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布，中美双方仍保留部分加征关税（美 方 ...

Section 1: General Investment Ratings and Core Views - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided in the content - **Report Core Views**: - For gold 2508, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a decline. The overall view is to be bearish in the short - term due to the easing of Sino - US relations [1]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a slightly weak sideways movement. The overall view is to take a wait - and - see approach because of the strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel [1]. Section 2: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: On the night of May 12, Shanghai gold fell to the 760 level and fluctuated, corresponding to New York gold fluctuating around 3200. Attention should be paid to the technical support at this position, and if it is broken, the willingness of long - position holders to liquidate may increase, and the gold price will remain weak [3]. - **Core Logic**: After the release of the "Joint Statement of the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" on May 12, Sino - US economic and trade relations entered a stage of easing, which reduced global trade uncertainties in the short - term. As a result, safe - haven assets such as gold and government bonds were adjusted, and the risk appetite of the stock market and commodities increased [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: After a strong rebound on the night of last Friday, the nickel price fluctuated narrowly around 126,000 during the day yesterday, and then opened lower and moved lower at night, falling back to around 124,000. The nickel price did not respond much to macro - level positive news [4]. - **Core Logic**: The market's expectation of the Philippine nickel ore export ban policy has increased. It is expected that the Philippine government will implement a nickel ore export ban starting from June 2025, which has largely promoted the nickel price to rebound from the bottom. The nickel ore market is strong, while the demand is weak. The inventory of stainless steel is at a high level and the destocking is slow, and the price continues to be weak, while nickel sulfate is running stably. Technically, the futures price faces certain technical pressure at the end - April high after rebounding from the bottom and is expected to maintain a sideways movement [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold 2508, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" due to the easing of Sino - US relations which is negative for gold prices. For gold in general, the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic includes a rapid rebound in futures prices this week indicating strong long - position support, geopolitical tensions in the India - Pakistan conflict which are positive for gold prices, and the Fed's concerns about the economic situation after the May interest - rate meeting [1][3]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is "decline", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" because of a strong upstream nickel ore market and a weak downstream stainless - steel market. For nickel in general, the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic involves the overall pressure on non - ferrous metals after the holiday, strong supply at the industrial level with increased supply costs due to the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, weak demand with slow inventory reduction of stainless steel at a high level, and technical pressure on nickel prices [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement and Views**: The short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", with a reference view of "wait - and - see" [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: This week, the rapid rebound of futures prices shows strong long - position support. The escalation of the India - Pakistan conflict is positive for gold prices. After the Fed's May interest - rate meeting, the Fed maintained the interest rate, expressed concerns about the economic situation, and pointed out increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation. Technically, pay attention to the 3400 mark for London gold and the 800 - yuan mark for Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel - **Price Movement and Views**: The short - term view is "decline", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", with a reference view of "wait - and - see" [1][4]. - **Core Logic**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated during the day yesterday and opened lower at night, breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. After the holiday, non - ferrous metals were under pressure, and nickel followed the downward trend. At the industrial level, supply is strong with increased supply costs due to the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, while demand is weak with slow inventory reduction of stainless steel at a high level and strong expectations of production cuts. Technically, after the holiday, nickel prices faced technical pressure when rebounding to the 125,000 - yuan level, and pay attention to the low - point support in December last year [4].