投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 从业资格证号：F3035632 · 2025 年 8 月 11 日 贵金属周报 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 专业研究·创造价值 电话：0571-87006873 美经济不及预期，金价强势运行 核心观点 上周金价强势运行。周五夜盘纽约金冲高回落，主力期价由 3500 美元一线下挫至3450美元一线，沪金和伦敦金波动不大，纽约金和伦 敦金价差一度走阔至 100 美元。根据美国海关 7 月 31 日更新、8 月 8 日正式公布的文件显示，1 公斤规格和 100 盎司规格的金条被列入加 征关税类别。这导致纽约金行情异于伦敦金和沪金，可参考此前市场 预期美国加征铜关税，纽约铜行情明显异于伦铜和沪铜。短期纽约金 冲高回落，依 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美国经济走弱，市场避险需求上 升 | | 铜 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 国内氛围回暖，铜价企稳回升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：昨日金价维持强势，伦敦金逼近 3400 美元，沪金 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 非农爆冷，市场避险需求上升 | | 铜 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 国内氛围回暖，铜价企稳回升 | 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 说明： 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Gold is expected to be short - term bullish, mid - term range - bound, and intraday slightly bullish, with a short - term bullish outlook due to the cooling of tariff disturbances in August, the disappointing July non - farm payrolls at the beginning of the month, and the previous unexpected rebound in inflation, which have increased the expectation of a US economic recession and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and weakened the US dollar index [1][3]. - Copper is expected to be short - term and mid - term range - bound, and intraday slightly bullish, with a wait - and - see attitude. The domestic long - buying sentiment has cooled, and factors such as the off - season of downstream industries, high production of upstream electrolytic copper, and a slight increase in social inventories have put pressure on copper prices [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: rising; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Overall view: short - term bullish [1]. - **Core Logic**: In the context of reduced tariff disturbances in August, the disappointing July non - farm payrolls at the beginning of the month and the previous unexpected rebound in inflation have increased the expectation of a US economic recession, leading to a rapid rebound in gold prices. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may rise with the weakening economic expectation, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to gold prices. Technically, gold prices are still in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range [3]. Copper - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Overall view: wait - and - see [1]. - **Core Logic**: On Tuesday, the domestic market atmosphere was good, and the non - ferrous metal sector oscillated upward, causing copper prices to rebound. After the Asian session, LME copper continued to plunge, and SHFE copper opened lower at night and oscillated narrowly around the 78,000 - yuan mark. The decline in SHFE copper's open interest to 470,000 contracts indicates a decrease in capital attention. The domestic downstream industries are in the off - season, upstream electrolytic copper production remains high, and social inventories have increased slightly. Technically, attention can be paid to the technical support at the 78,000 - yuan mark [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, along with corresponding core logics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price View** - Short - term: The price is expected to rise; medium - term: The price is expected to fluctuate; intraday: The price is expected to be slightly stronger, and the reference view is to be bullish in the short - term [1]. - **Core Logic** - In early August, the 7 - month non - farm payrolls were disappointing, and inflation unexpectedly rebounded, increasing the expectation of a US economic recession and driving up the gold price. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may rise, and the US dollar index may weaken, which is beneficial to the gold price. The market atmosphere on Monday did not continue to decline from the previous Friday night, and the equity market rebounded. The EU will suspend the implementation of two counter - measures against US tariffs in 6 months. Technically, the gold price is still in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range can be noted [3]. Copper - **Price View** - Short - term: The price is expected to fluctuate; medium - term: The price is expected to fluctuate; intraday: The price is expected to be slightly stronger, and the reference view is to wait and see [1]. - **Core Logic** - On Monday, the overall market atmosphere improved, and Shanghai copper showed a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. The disappointing US non - farm payrolls in the short - term reduced market risk appetite, which was negative for copper prices, while the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts was positive. It is necessary to continuously monitor whether the global market trades on the logic of a US economic recession. The EU will suspend the implementation of two counter - measures against US tariffs in 6 months. The US tariff policy excluded refined copper last Thursday, which is beneficial to Shanghai copper and LME copper in the medium and long term. It is the off - season for domestic industrial downstream, the upstream electrolytic copper maintains high production, and social inventories have increased slightly. Technically, the copper price has strong support at the July low [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price first declined and then rebounded. At the end of July, the US reached new tariff agreements with Japan and Europe, and a new round of China-US talks was held in Sweden. The uncertainty of tariffs decreased significantly, market risk appetite continued to rise, and the gold price continued to fall. However, the unexpectedly poor US non-farm payrolls data on Friday night caused the gold price to rebound sharply. Against the background of reduced tariff disturbances, the US inflation data rebounded more than expected, and the non-farm payrolls data was disappointing, which increased the market's expectation of a US economic recession and was beneficial to the gold price. In addition, the expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is also beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range [3][10][23]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The weekly trend is presented through the linkage chart of the US dollar index and the futures closing price of COMEX gold [7][9]. 1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | August 1 | July 25 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | 3,416.00 | 3,338.50 | 2.32% | | COMEX Silver | 37.11 | 38.33 | -3.18% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 770.72 | 777.32 | -0.85% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 8,918.00 | 9,392.00 | -5.05% | | US Dollar Index | 98.69 | 97.67 | 1.05% | | US Dollar against Offshore RMB | 7.19 | 7.17 | 0.31% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.90 | 1.96 | -0.06 | | S&P 500 | 6,238.01 | 6,388.64 | -2.36% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | 67.26 | 65.07 | 3.37% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 92.06 | 87.11 | 5.69% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 86.42 | 82.76 | 4.42% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 953.08 | 957.09 | -4.01 | | iShare Gold ETF | 450.04 | 449.60 | 0.44% | [8] 2. Unexpectedly Poor Non-Farm Payrolls, Gold Price Rebounds - The gold price first declined and then rebounded last week. The unexpectedly poor US non-farm payrolls data on Friday night caused the gold price to rebound sharply. In July, the newly added non-farm payrolls were only 73,000 (expected 110,000), the lowest since October 2024. In addition, historical data was also significantly revised downward. The data for May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and that for June was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000. The total revision for the two months was 258,000, the worst three-month average since the pandemic (with an average of only 35,000 per month). The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (previous value 4.1%), rising for the third consecutive month. The labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, a three-year low, reflecting the shrinkage of the labor supply due to the tightening of immigration policies. On Friday, the US dollar index and the US Treasury yield declined significantly due to the non-farm payrolls data. The US stock market showed a high-level decline trend, and market panic increased significantly [10][12][14]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the net long position of non-commercial traders on COMEX has been continuously rising. According to the data on July 29, compared with the previous week, the long position changed by -30,708 contracts, the short position changed by -1,266 contracts, and the net long position changed by -29,442 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and its timeliness is poor. Last week, the bullish sentiment in the domestic market cooled down, silver prices continued to fall from high levels, and the gold-silver ratio began to rebound. Since late July, the holdings of precious metal ETFs have shown a slight decline [18][20][22]. 4. Conclusion - The gold price first declined and then rebounded last week. Against the background of reduced tariff disturbances, the US inflation data rebounded more than expected, and the non-farm payrolls data was disappointing, which increased the market's expectation of a US economic recession and was beneficial to the gold price. In addition, the expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is also beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view on gold is bullish, with a mid - term view of consolidation and an intraday view of slightly bullish. The core logic is that the unexpected US non - farm payrolls data has increased market risk - aversion demand, pushing up gold prices. For copper, the short - term, mid - term and intraday views are all consolidation (slightly bullish intraday), and the recommended strategy is to wait and see, as the cooling of the domestic long - position atmosphere and the rebound of the US dollar index have pressured copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Outlook**: Short - term: Upward; Mid - term: Consolidation; Intraday: Slightly bullish. The reference view is to be bullish in the short - term [1]. - **Core Logic**: The unexpected US non - farm payrolls data on Friday night led to a significant rebound in gold prices. Against the background of reduced tariff disturbances, the US inflation data exceeded expectations and non - farm payrolls were disappointing, increasing the expectation of a US economic recession, reducing market risk appetite, causing a significant decline in US stocks, and thus benefiting gold prices. Also, the expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is also positive for gold prices. It is expected that the gold price will move strongly, and attention should be paid to the technical resistance at the upper edge of the Q2 consolidation range [3]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term: Consolidation; Mid - term: Consolidation; Intraday: Slightly bullish. The reference view is to wait and see [1]. - **Core Logic**: Last week, the domestic long - position atmosphere continued to cool, and combined with the rebound of the US dollar index, copper prices were pressured down. On Thursday, the US tariff policy excluded refined copper, causing a sharp drop in New York copper and a rapid narrowing of the spread between COMEX and LME copper, which means that the US is temporarily unable to be self - sufficient in refined copper, which is beneficial for SHFE copper and LME copper. It is the domestic industrial off - season, and the inventory reduction at a low level has slowed down. In the short - term, SHFE copper is at the July low, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the low level [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper is rated as "High-level consolidation, bearish in the future" [1] - The recommended strategy is to "Wait and see for now, and short later" [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market is trading the weakening of the US economy, with signs of economic decline emerging. Although the copper fundamentals currently have some support, they are showing signs of weakening. The market's trading logic has changed again, and concerns about overseas miners suppressing long-term processing fees are relatively strong, reinforcing the long position's bet on copper shortage. In the short term, the downside space for copper prices may be limited, and they are expected to remain at a high level. However, due to weakening demand and lack of macro confidence, it is difficult for copper prices to continue rising [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The open-pit mining project of the Canon Copper Mine of WANXIANG MINING CO., LTD., a subsidiary of Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd., has officially started. This is the first large-scale copper mine project restarted since the suspension of copper mining in 2021, marking that WANXIANG MINING has entered the era of "simultaneous development of gold and copper" again. After the project is put into production, it will become another important profit growth point for WANXIANG MINING [2] Variety Logic Macro Perspective - The US CPI data is lower than market expectations, and the market starts to trade the weakening of the US economy. In terms of non-farm employment, although it is higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast, the short-term employment diffusion index has declined, indicating that although the employment market is still strong at present, there is a high risk of decline in the future. At the same time, the revised US GDP still shows negative growth, and overall, the economic weakening has begun to emerge [2] Fundamentals - **Supply Side**: The import copper concentrate processing fee of smelters is -$43.91 per dry ton, and the spot processing fee has stabilized but is still in a deep inversion state. Overseas miners are seeking to negotiate with Chinese smelters to lower the long-term processing fee, and smelters are under great pressure. Attention should be paid to whether there will be production cut actions in the future [2] - **Demand Side**: The production of copper rods, copper tubes, etc. has reached the high level of the same period in previous years, but the downstream is gradually entering the off-season [2] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see, and short copper later [2][3]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a "flight" from long-term U.S. Treasuries as expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve diminish, with the 30-year Treasury yield approaching 5% [1] - Recent weak consumer and producer price data have revived rate cut expectations, with futures indicating a higher probability of cuts starting in September [1] - Concerns over fiscal policy, particularly the potential impact of Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan," which could increase the deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, are contributing to a steepening yield curve [2] Group 2 - The trend of steepening yield curves is expected to continue, driven by a preference for short-term bonds while reducing exposure to long-term bonds due to uncertainties in fiscal expansion and potential inflation risks from tariff policies [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's latest economic forecasts, which suggest a policy rate of 3.75%-4.00% by the end of 2025, indicating a cautious outlook on long-term Treasuries [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the probability of a U.S. economic recession within the next 12 months from 35% to 30%, indicating a potential reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook [1][5]. Economic Indicators - The adjustment in recession probability suggests that Goldman Sachs has identified some positive economic signals, including a stable job market, sustained consumer spending, and recovery in certain sectors [3]. - Despite the lowered recession probability, the U.S. economy still faces significant uncertainties, including global economic complexities, geopolitical tensions, and potential financial market volatility [3][5]. Market Reaction - The revised forecast may positively influence investor sentiment, potentially boosting confidence in risk assets and leading to short-term increases in stock and bond markets [4]. - There exists a divergence in market perspectives, with some economists believing the U.S. economy has passed its most challenging phase, while others caution that the recovery foundation remains fragile [4]. Policy Implications - The effectiveness of U.S. government fiscal policies and Federal Reserve monetary policies will be crucial in supporting economic recovery while avoiding excessive inflation or other risks [4][5]. - A misstep in policy coordination could elevate the risk of economic recession, despite the current positive signals from Goldman Sachs [5].