Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend, with the main contract closing above the 78,000 yuan mark. The recent upward movement of copper prices is largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. Although the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the decline of gold prices at high levels put some pressure on copper prices, in the context of low industrial inventories and a warming macro - environment, copper prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated around the 20,000 yuan mark. The recent increase in aluminum prices is also largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. In a low - inventory situation, the warming macro - environment has pushed up aluminum prices. However, the short - term price rebound to the 20,000 - yuan mark faces technical pressure, and upstream electrolytic aluminum plants have a strong hedging intention due to high profits. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 20,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices showed a weak and volatile trend, with continuous increase in positions. After a short - term rebound to the high in April, nickel prices fell back. The market's increasing expectation of the Philippine ore - ban policy has largely driven the nickel price to bottom out and rebound, while the long - term oversupply of nickel elements suppresses the nickel price. It is expected that the futures price will tend to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support at last week's low [6]. Industry Dynamics Summary - **Copper**: On May 12, the social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 124,900 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons compared to the 6th [8]. - **Nickel**: On May 12, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2506 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,750 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,850 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,250 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,650 yuan/ton [9]. Related Charts Summary Copper - **Copper Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai [10]. - **Copper Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE copper and the main continuous contract [15]. - **Domestic Visible Inventory of Electrolytic Copper**: It includes social inventory and bonded - area inventory [12]. - **Overseas Copper Exchange Inventory**: Relevant inventory data from overseas exchanges [17]. - **LME Copper Cancellation Ratio**: The chart shows the cancellation ratio of LME copper and inventory [13]. - **SHFE Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The chart shows the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [18]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the average price of aluminum premium and discount in the Yangtze River spot market and the futures closing price of aluminum [22]. - **Domestic Social Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The chart shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Aluminum Oxide Trend**: The chart shows the futures closing price and the national average price of aluminum oxide [26]. - **Aluminum Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of aluminum futures [28]. - **Overseas Exchange Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: It includes LME and COMEX inventories [33]. - **Aluminum Oxide Inventory**: The chart shows the total inventory and port inventory of aluminum oxide [31]. Nickel - **Nickel Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic nickel in Shanghai [34]. - **LME Inventory**: The chart shows the LME nickel inventory and cancellation ratio [36]. - **LME Nickel Trend**: The chart shows the LME nickel 3M electronic - trading price and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread [38]. - **Nickel Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE nickel [40]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The chart shows the SHFE nickel inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [42]. - **Nickel Ore Port Inventory**: The chart shows the nickel ore port inventory [44].

Section 1: General Investment Ratings and Core Views - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided in the content - **Report Core Views**: - For gold 2508, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a decline. The overall view is to be bearish in the short - term due to the easing of Sino - US relations [1]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a slightly weak sideways movement. The overall view is to take a wait - and - see approach because of the strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel [1]. Section 2: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: On the night of May 12, Shanghai gold fell to the 760 level and fluctuated, corresponding to New York gold fluctuating around 3200. Attention should be paid to the technical support at this position, and if it is broken, the willingness of long - position holders to liquidate may increase, and the gold price will remain weak [3]. - **Core Logic**: After the release of the "Joint Statement of the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" on May 12, Sino - US economic and trade relations entered a stage of easing, which reduced global trade uncertainties in the short - term. As a result, safe - haven assets such as gold and government bonds were adjusted, and the risk appetite of the stock market and commodities increased [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: After a strong rebound on the night of last Friday, the nickel price fluctuated narrowly around 126,000 during the day yesterday, and then opened lower and moved lower at night, falling back to around 124,000. The nickel price did not respond much to macro - level positive news [4]. - **Core Logic**: The market's expectation of the Philippine nickel ore export ban policy has increased. It is expected that the Philippine government will implement a nickel ore export ban starting from June 2025, which has largely promoted the nickel price to rebound from the bottom. The nickel ore market is strong, while the demand is weak. The inventory of stainless steel is at a high level and the destocking is slow, and the price continues to be weak, while nickel sulfate is running stably. Technically, the futures price faces certain technical pressure at the end - April high after rebounding from the bottom and is expected to maintain a sideways movement [4].

投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观氛围回暖，有色上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡上行，主力期价站上 7.8 万关口，持仓量随之上 升。铜价上行很大程度上受益于中美关系缓和。5 月 12 日凌晨人民 日报报道，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰出席新闻发 布会表示，中美达成重要共识，会谈取得实质性进展。产业低库存 格局下，宏观回暖，短期期价增仓上行，突破 7.8 万关口，预期维持 强势运行。 沪铝 今日沪铝主力期价减仓上行，铝价收复上周大部分跌幅，逼近 2 万关口。铝价上行 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view on gold is bearish, with a mid - term view of oscillation, and a short - term weakening outlook. The core logic is that Sino - US relations are tending to ease, which is negative for gold prices. For nickel, the short - term view is bearish, the mid - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, suggesting a wait - and - see approach due to strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Technical Support**: Last week, the gold price rose and then fell. New York gold has strong technical support at $3300, corresponding to the 780 - yuan mark for Shanghai gold [3]. - **Market Drivers**: After the Fed's hawkish stance in the May 8th meeting, the US dollar index rebounded from the bottom, causing the gold price to fall. The Sino - US trade situation is tending to ease, which will put pressure on the gold price. Attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 780 - yuan level of Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai nickel oscillated downward, then rebounded sharply on the night of Friday, regaining the weekly decline and standing above the 126,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The expectation of the Philippine nickel ore export ban from June 2025 has pushed the nickel price to rebound. The nickel ore market is strong, while the demand side is weak. Stainless steel inventory is high and the price is weak, and nickel sulfate is stable. Technically, the futures price may face some pressure at the late - April high [4].