Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend, with the main contract closing above the 78,000 yuan mark. The recent upward movement of copper prices is largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. Although the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the decline of gold prices at high levels put some pressure on copper prices, in the context of low industrial inventories and a warming macro - environment, copper prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated around the 20,000 yuan mark. The recent increase in aluminum prices is also largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. In a low - inventory situation, the warming macro - environment has pushed up aluminum prices. However, the short - term price rebound to the 20,000 - yuan mark faces technical pressure, and upstream electrolytic aluminum plants have a strong hedging intention due to high profits. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 20,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices showed a weak and volatile trend, with continuous increase in positions. After a short - term rebound to the high in April, nickel prices fell back. The market's increasing expectation of the Philippine ore - ban policy has largely driven the nickel price to bottom out and rebound, while the long - term oversupply of nickel elements suppresses the nickel price. It is expected that the futures price will tend to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support at last week's low [6]. Industry Dynamics Summary - **Copper**: On May 12, the social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 124,900 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons compared to the 6th [8]. - **Nickel**: On May 12, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2506 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,750 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,850 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,250 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,650 yuan/ton [9]. Related Charts Summary Copper - **Copper Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai [10]. - **Copper Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE copper and the main continuous contract [15]. - **Domestic Visible Inventory of Electrolytic Copper**: It includes social inventory and bonded - area inventory [12]. - **Overseas Copper Exchange Inventory**: Relevant inventory data from overseas exchanges [17]. - **LME Copper Cancellation Ratio**: The chart shows the cancellation ratio of LME copper and inventory [13]. - **SHFE Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The chart shows the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [18]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the average price of aluminum premium and discount in the Yangtze River spot market and the futures closing price of aluminum [22]. - **Domestic Social Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The chart shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Aluminum Oxide Trend**: The chart shows the futures closing price and the national average price of aluminum oxide [26]. - **Aluminum Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of aluminum futures [28]. - **Overseas Exchange Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: It includes LME and COMEX inventories [33]. - **Aluminum Oxide Inventory**: The chart shows the total inventory and port inventory of aluminum oxide [31]. Nickel - **Nickel Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic nickel in Shanghai [34]. - **LME Inventory**: The chart shows the LME nickel inventory and cancellation ratio [36]. - **LME Nickel Trend**: The chart shows the LME nickel 3M electronic - trading price and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread [38]. - **Nickel Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE nickel [40]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The chart shows the SHFE nickel inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [42]. - **Nickel Ore Port Inventory**: The chart shows the nickel ore port inventory [44].

Section 1: General Investment Ratings and Core Views - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided in the content - **Report Core Views**: - For gold 2508, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a decline. The overall view is to be bearish in the short - term due to the easing of Sino - US relations [1]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a slightly weak sideways movement. The overall view is to take a wait - and - see approach because of the strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel [1]. Section 2: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: On the night of May 12, Shanghai gold fell to the 760 level and fluctuated, corresponding to New York gold fluctuating around 3200. Attention should be paid to the technical support at this position, and if it is broken, the willingness of long - position holders to liquidate may increase, and the gold price will remain weak [3]. - **Core Logic**: After the release of the "Joint Statement of the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" on May 12, Sino - US economic and trade relations entered a stage of easing, which reduced global trade uncertainties in the short - term. As a result, safe - haven assets such as gold and government bonds were adjusted, and the risk appetite of the stock market and commodities increased [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: After a strong rebound on the night of last Friday, the nickel price fluctuated narrowly around 126,000 during the day yesterday, and then opened lower and moved lower at night, falling back to around 124,000. The nickel price did not respond much to macro - level positive news [4]. - **Core Logic**: The market's expectation of the Philippine nickel ore export ban policy has increased. It is expected that the Philippine government will implement a nickel ore export ban starting from June 2025, which has largely promoted the nickel price to rebound from the bottom. The nickel ore market is strong, while the demand is weak. The inventory of stainless steel is at a high level and the destocking is slow, and the price continues to be weak, while nickel sulfate is running stably. Technically, the futures price faces certain technical pressure at the end - April high after rebounding from the bottom and is expected to maintain a sideways movement [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated upwards, with the main contract price breaking through the 78,000 yuan mark and open interest increasing. The upward movement was largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations and the low inventory pattern in the industry. It is expected to maintain a strong trend [5]. - The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum futures rose with decreasing open interest, recovering most of last week's losses and approaching the 20,000 yuan mark. The upward movement was also due to the easing of Sino - US relations and the low inventory pattern. The pressure at the 20,000 yuan mark can be monitored in the short term [6]. - After a strong rebound on the night of last Friday, the nickel price fluctuated narrowly around 126,000 yuan. The market's expectation of the Philippine nickel ore export ban from June 2025 pushed the nickel price to rebound. The nickel ore market is strong, while the demand is weak. Technically, the price may face some pressure at the late - April high [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics Copper - On May 12, Rio Tinto signed a final joint - venture agreement with Sumitomo Metal Mining of Japan for the Winu copper - gold project in Western Australia. Sumitomo will pay up to $430.4 million to acquire a 30% stake in the project [9]. Aluminum - In April 2025, China exported 518,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 0.37%. From January to April, the cumulative export was 1.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [10]. Nickel - On May 12, for the Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract of refined nickel, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,240 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,340 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,740 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,140 yuan/ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [25][31][27]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view on gold is bearish, with a mid - term view of oscillation, and a short - term weakening outlook. The core logic is that Sino - US relations are tending to ease, which is negative for gold prices. For nickel, the short - term view is bearish, the mid - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, suggesting a wait - and - see approach due to strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Technical Support**: Last week, the gold price rose and then fell. New York gold has strong technical support at $3300, corresponding to the 780 - yuan mark for Shanghai gold [3]. - **Market Drivers**: After the Fed's hawkish stance in the May 8th meeting, the US dollar index rebounded from the bottom, causing the gold price to fall. The Sino - US trade situation is tending to ease, which will put pressure on the gold price. Attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 780 - yuan level of Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai nickel oscillated downward, then rebounded sharply on the night of Friday, regaining the weekly decline and standing above the 126,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The expectation of the Philippine nickel ore export ban from June 2025 has pushed the nickel price to rebound. The nickel ore market is strong, while the demand side is weak. Stainless steel inventory is high and the price is weak, and nickel sulfate is stable. Technically, the futures price may face some pressure at the late - April high [4].