智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，根据云合，2025年Top20长剧有效播放量同比降20%，41部长剧 云合评级S+(同比减少3部)，国产独播剧部数占比小幅提升；2025年Top20综艺有效播放同降10%。2025 年长剧行业整体处于深度调整期，而2026年或为广电新政观察窗口期；长剧/短剧/中剧/季播剧/网络故 事片等多元形态的互补，分账激励/创新排播/精细化运营等新尝试，或在政策助力下共促行业积极转 向。 中金主要观点如下： 竞争：根据云合，2025年爱奇艺/腾讯视频/优酷视频正片有效播放同比下降，芒果TV同比增长；全年播 放量TOP3分别为《藏海传》《大奉打更人》《许我耀眼》，腾讯视频占两席。芒果TV受益于《国色芳 华》等剧，年度播放边际改善明显，但总体而言，长视频剧集竞争格局较稳定。 行业：根据云合，1)供给侧：2025年上新剧集624部，同降31部；古偶/现偶/古今悬疑涉案题材领跑市 场。2026年四大平台储备剧集444部，七成项目与2025年重合，现实题材/历史正剧为布局重点。2)运营 侧：2025年国产新剧中台网联播部数占32%，独播剧占83%，分账剧占17%，同比均基本持平；而限 免、付费剧 ...

文｜犀牛娱乐 沈婉婷 编辑｜朴芳 毫无疑问，2025年对长剧来说并不好过。 行业周期的变化、流量红利的消逝、短剧的持续冲击……让长剧在过去一整年都几乎面临着震荡"下行"的焦虑，市场水位的整体缩水与超级头部作品的缺 位也已成为不可逆的事实。 在此背景下，随之而来的是发生在内容、平台、公司、演员等各个层面的剧烈洗牌，而只有那些真正回归创作本质、尊重并理解观众的作品，才能跨越不 确定性找到"上行"的空间。 变与不变之中究竟得失几何？本文将结合云合、灯塔、猫眼、德塔文等第三方平台公布的年度数据报告或榜单，详细回顾2025年长剧市场在这一年的具体 表现，也为刚到来的2026提供可供参考的一二经验及反思。 大盘再收缩，"超头"缺失 流量规模的整体收缩体现在各个维度。 根据云合数据《报告|2025年长剧集网播年度观察》，2025年上新长剧霸屏榜TOP20正片有效播放296亿，较去年同期缩减20%；其中，41部云合评级为 S+，同比减少3部。 长视频平台长剧上新数量也呈现下滑态势，2025年共上新长剧624部，同比减少31部，可看出"提质减量"大方针仍在坚定贯彻。 头部流量的缩水更加明显，要说去年还有一部热播期集均破亿的"独 ...

头图来源|《别扭合租房》 一个艺考生考上影视圈top3院校（北京电影学院、中央戏剧学院和上海戏剧学院）需要多少钱？ 答案是：至少10万。 然而，如果从投资的角度来看，这笔钱大概率会"打水漂"。表演系学生如今面临的行业现状是：传统影视行业逐渐凋敝，并且在大部分从业人员看来，这 种衰落在未来很长一段时间里仍将持续。 而另一边，短剧市场热钱涌现。综合不同调研机构预测，2025年微短剧市场规模将超过600亿，对应同比增速约30%，到2027~2028年有可能突破千亿。 于是，一些演不到长剧的科班生们开始扎堆短剧。短剧也正在成为科班生们实现梦想的唯一渠道。 01 科班生在短剧扎堆了 北京电影学院导演系主任王瑞教授在接受智通财经专访时提到一件事：2024年，北电的一个小孩被聘到了短视频公司，等他跑到系里来聊这件事的时 候，"大家还挺鄙夷的"。 但不到一年的时间，情况发生了变化，一位中戏导演系博士在社交平台上说道：几乎所有的影视行业的从业人员现在都会被问到一个问题：为什么不去做 短剧？ 态度变化的背后，除了"短剧风口论"外，更本质的原因在于影视行业整体的生态发生了巨大变化：据媒体统计，去年一年，广电总局发证的电视剧为115 ...

Group 1 - The domestic long drama market in Q3 2025 shows significant "head effect, frequent high-quality content, enhanced platform dominance, and diversified business models," despite a slight decline in total market volume [4] - The top 20 long dramas in Q3 2025 achieved 14.5 billion effective views, a 10% year-on-year decrease, while the number of new long dramas with effective views between 10 million and 20 million increased by 7 [4] - The proportion of exclusive domestic new dramas reached 79%, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, with platforms like Youku and Mango TV deepening their exclusive distribution strategies [4] Group 2 - The micro-short drama market in China is projected to reach 67.79 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.40%, with expectations to exceed 150 billion yuan by 2030 [5] - The industry is moving beyond single-genre "爽剧" (refreshing dramas) as diverse and innovative themes emerge, with brand IP customization becoming mainstream [5] - Major online literature platforms are expanding their IP libraries, with Tomato Novel's IP adaptations increasing 17 times compared to the previous year [5] Group 3 - The global drama series market is expected to reach 108 billion dollars by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.4% from 2025 to 2033 [3] - Subscription-based streaming platforms are anticipated to become the largest contributors to the global television economy, generating 190 billion dollars annually by 2029 [3] - The demand for high-quality scripted content is driving the production of long dramas, aligning with audience preferences for binge-watching and complex narratives [3] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include companies such as Mango Super Media, Huanrui Century, Huace Film & TV, Beijing Culture, and Damai Entertainment, as long drama content quality and IP ecosystem development are expected to enhance industry value [6]

身处长短剧两个赛道，我深感"长短并重"并非简单的业务叠加，而是创作思维、制作流程与商业模式的 全方位迭代。我们既不能为了流量而牺牲内容的品质与价值观，也不能因为追求艺术性而无视新的传播 需求。真正的转型，是利用长剧积累的审美与制作经验，去提升微短剧的质感；同时借鉴微短剧的网感 与节奏，反哺长剧的叙事效率。 微短剧的演进速度正在重塑每一位传统影视从业者的认知边界。短短两三年间，这一新兴业态已从初期 的"野蛮生长"迅速跃升至制作"精品化"。对于深耕长剧的传统影视人而言，微短剧在带来市场份额和观 众注意力转移变化的同时，更引发了一场关于生存与发展的"思维变革"。 作为长期深耕长剧的制片人，同时也是刚刚投身微短剧创作的导演，工作方式和身份的双重转变使我在 长短剧的双重赛道中穿梭，既看到长短剧各有优势，也深感两者并非替代关系，而是满足不同场景、不 同需求的互补形态。 长剧的优势在于其深度和沉浸感，适合需要复杂叙事和情感积累的内容。长剧的创作逻辑，建立在观众 拥有完整"客厅时间"或"沉浸式时段"的基础上，因而，长剧更习惯于草蛇灰线、起承转合的精细铺陈， 拍摄时甚至需要耗费数天时间去调度一个长镜头，为剧作增添厚度。微短剧的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, New Media Co., Ltd. (300770), is focusing on investing in high-quality micro short dramas by 2025, having already invested in over 40 productions across various formats [1] Investment Strategy - The company has adopted a strategy of investing in high-quality content, with a diverse portfolio that includes long dramas, premium horizontal mid-length dramas, and vertical short dramas [1] - The investment channels for the content include major platforms such as iQIYI, Youku, Tencent Video, Mango TV, and Hongguo Short Drama [1] Performance Highlights - The company has seen significant success with its released dramas, with "Three More Snow" ranking 4th in the annual short drama chart by Yunhe Data [1] - "Desperate Pursuit Order" achieved the top position in the weekly short drama chart (Week 45) by Yunhe Data [1] - "Three People Walking" received a score of 7.5 on Douban, ranking 3rd in the Douban Chinese drama weekly chart [1] Evaluation Criteria - As an investor, the company conducts a thorough evaluation of film and television projects based on script assessment, project quality, creative team, distribution channels, policy risks, and financial models [1] - The investment ratio will be determined based on actual circumstances [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent drama "Allow Me to Shine" has set multiple viewership records and is praised as the "light of long dramas," yet it exhibits characteristics akin to short dramas, suggesting it has adopted a "short drama mindset" that contributes to its addictive nature [1] Group 1: Characteristics of Short Drama Mindset - Short dramas feature clearly defined character settings, as the vertical screen format limits the portrayal of complex relationships, requiring characters to convey their inner world and actions succinctly [2] - Characters in short dramas tend to remain static, focusing on overcoming challenges without delving into the depths of human nature or life's possibilities, contrasting with long dramas that reflect on the relationship between character and essence [2] - The emotional tone of short dramas is characterized by quick resolutions and clear-cut conflicts, providing immediate emotional gratification without the complexities of deeper emotional entanglements [3] Group 2: Narrative Structure and Themes - Short dramas typically follow a "leveling up" narrative structure, with episodes lasting two to three minutes and featuring continuous climaxes and twists to maintain viewer engagement [3] - Long dramas often explore external plots to develop core emotional conflicts, reflecting deeper societal issues, while short dramas emphasize personal struggles aided by external factors, focusing on emotional suspense and satisfaction [4] - The influence of short drama thinking extends beyond entertainment, impacting real-life perspectives and highlighting the need for a richer cultural life to balance its effects [4]

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory policy for long dramas is shifting from strict regulation to a balance of relaxation and deep cultivation, with a more diversified and refined regulatory approach [1] Group 1: Industry Background - The rise of micro-short drama platforms, represented by Hongguo's free short dramas, has intensified competition for long dramas, leading major long video platforms to focus on cost reduction and efficiency [1] - The tightening of budgets in the downstream of the long drama industry chain has accelerated the clearing of supply upstream, impacting the stability of creators' living conditions and their creative enthusiasm, which in turn affects content innovation [1] Group 2: Industry Stabilization - The supply-side structure of long dramas is gradually transitioning from an adjustment phase to a stabilization phase, with ongoing structural quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [2] - The overall number of long dramas is stabilizing after years of clearing, with an increase in the proportion of exclusive dramas and a focus on converting member dramas, leading to a content layout increasingly tilted towards top-tier productions [2] - There is a recovery trend in the number of costume dramas, which are important for young female audiences, after a period of decline from 2019 to 2022 [2] Group 3: Regulatory Observations - The implementation of new broadcasting regulations is expected to foster content supply innovation, providing a friendly environment for content innovation [3] - The impact of content supply transformation on user retention will be crucial for future development, with potential short-term benefits from the release of backlog dramas and shortened review cycles [3] - In the medium term, there will be a focus on strengthening the "script-centered system" and optimizing cost structures, while in the long term, series development will enhance production stability and IP value potential, indicating a possible industry recovery under the new policy cycle [3]

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory policy for long dramas is shifting from strict regulation to a balance of relaxation and deepening, with a more diversified and refined regulatory approach. The implementation of new broadcasting regulations is expected to promote content supply innovation, leading the industry into a virtuous cycle in the future [2][5]. Background Review - The rise of short dramas, represented by platforms like Hongguo, has intensified competition for long dramas, leading to tightened budgets in the downstream sector. This has accelerated the clearing of supply in the upstream sector but has also affected the stability and creativity of content creators [4][6]. - The supply side of the long drama industry is gradually stabilizing after a period of adjustment, with a focus on quality improvement and diversification of genres. The overall number of new dramas is expected to stabilize starting in 2024 [4][14]. New Regulations Observation - The new broadcasting regulations aim to foster content supply innovation, providing a friendly environment for content creation. The key to future development lies in the impact of supply changes on user retention. Short-term benefits include the release of backlog dramas and shortened review cycles, while medium-term strategies focus on optimizing cost structures through a "script-centered" approach [5][34]. - The long-term outlook suggests that series development will enhance production stability and IP value potential, with the industry likely to recover under the new policy cycle [5][37]. Industry Trends - The long video platforms are increasingly focusing on exclusive dramas and member content, with membership revenue becoming a core income source. For instance, in 2024, membership revenue accounted for 60.8% and 24.4% of total revenue for iQIYI and Mango TV, respectively [23][24]. - The supply of costume dramas, a significant genre for young female audiences, has shown a recovery trend after a decline from 2019 to 2022. The proportion of costume dramas in the top 10 popular dramas has exceeded 40% in recent years [27][28]. Policy Background - The regulatory framework for the video drama industry is evolving from strict regulation to a more relaxed and detailed approach, with the implementation of new measures aimed at enhancing content supply and innovation. The new regulations emphasize improving the efficiency of review mechanisms and expanding content categories [32][33]. Future Development - In the short term, the release of backlog dramas and shortened review cycles are expected to facilitate cash flow and stimulate industry recovery. In the medium term, a focus on script quality and cost management is anticipated to improve production efficiency [34][36]. - Long-term strategies will likely involve a shift from standalone hits to series development, enhancing the stability of production and maximizing the potential of IP value through diversified derivative products [37][39].

Core Insights - The short drama market is expected to rival or even surpass the combined viewership and user engagement of movies and long dramas in the future, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences [1][4][5] Industry Trends - The traditional long video platforms are reducing investments in long dramas, with Tencent focusing on only 40 major series and limiting external purchases to 5 [4][10] - The micro-short drama market has seen explosive growth, surpassing the annual box office revenue of 42.5 billion RMB, with a market size approaching 70% of the long video market [5][10] - By 2024, the user base for micro-short dramas is projected to reach 662 million, accounting for over half of the total internet users in China [5][10] Investment Dynamics - Investors are increasingly interested in the short drama sector, with reports of individual investments starting from hundreds of thousands and institutional investments reaching millions [5][10] - The appeal of short dramas lies in their rapid production, short return cycles, and high profitability potential, aligning well with modern consumers' fragmented viewing habits [5][12] Talent and Content Creation - The shift towards short dramas is prompting a transformation in talent dynamics, with established actors and directors adapting to the new format, while some traditional actors struggle to adjust [6][12] - Notable actors like Liu Xiaoqing and Huang Zongze are transitioning to the short drama market, reflecting the industry's evolving talent evaluation system [6] Competitive Landscape - Major platforms like Baidu and iQIYI are investing heavily in short dramas, with Baidu forming a "Short Drama Launch Alliance" and iQIYI initiating a large-scale IP binding plan [7] - ByteDance's "Hongguo Short Drama" has achieved significant user growth, surpassing 210 million monthly active users, indicating a strong competitive position in the market [6][7] Global Expansion - Over 200 micro-short drama applications have entered overseas markets, with cumulative downloads nearing 400 million, suggesting a growing international interest [8] - The global short drama market is projected to exceed 50 billion USD in the next decade, with overseas markets expected to account for over 70% of this growth [8]