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纸浆数据日报-20250807
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 08:22
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of macro commodities has turned positive recently, and prices are expected to rise in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On August 6, 2025, the price of SP2601 was 5428, with a daily increase of 0.44% and a decrease of 1.34% compared to the Japanese version; SP2605 was 5404, with a daily decrease of 0.30% and a decrease of 1.22% compared to the Japanese version; SP2509 was 5170, with a daily increase of 0.19% and a decrease of 2.93% compared to the Japanese version [1] - The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% compared to the Japanese version; Russian Needle was 5180, unchanged and down 4.43%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4080, unchanged and down 1.69% [1] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71%; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1] - The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60%; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% from May; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% [1] - The shipment volume of W20 to China in May 2025 was 140, up 3.30% from April [1] - The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in July 2025 [1] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of Chinese pulp mainstream ports was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.8% decline [1] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse also showed certain changes during the period [1] Demand - The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On August 6, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 10, with a quantile level of 0.72; Silver Star basis was 680, with a quantile level of 0.904 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.545; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 21, with a quantile level of 0.613 [1]
纸浆数据日报-20250729
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market shows a situation of increasing supply volume and decreasing price on the supply - side, weak support from the demand - side, and a slight inventory reduction trend. Pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment, and with expected intense commodity sentiment this week, it is recommended to observe cautiously [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 28, 2025, SP2601 was 5488 with a daily decrease of 1.51% and a weekly increase of 0.15%; SP2605 was 5376 with a daily increase of 1.38% and a weekly increase of 1.19%; SP2509 was 5360 with a daily decrease of 2.90% and a weekly increase of 0.49% [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 28, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920 (unchanged daily and weekly), Russian coniferous pulp was 5450 with a daily decrease of 0.91% and a weekly increase of 2.83%, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4150 (unchanged daily and a weekly increase of 1.22%) [1] - **Foreign Market Quotes**: The foreign market quotes of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.70% month - on - month to 720 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 10.71% month - on - month to 500 dollars, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 620 dollars [1] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.68% month - on - month to 5884 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 10.60% month - on - month to 4101 dollars, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 5073 dollars [1] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons (a 6.09% decrease from May), and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 143.5 tons (a 10.98% increase from May). The shipment volume of W20 to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemical mechanical pulp fluctuated slightly in July [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 214.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, with a 1.7% decrease. The inventory showed a slight de - stocking trend [2] - **Demand**: The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, with weak overall support for pulp [1] 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 28, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was 90 with a quantile level of 0.839, and the Silver Star basis was 560 with a quantile level of 0.869 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 28, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36 with a quantile level of 0.685, and the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 49 with a quantile level of 0.69 [1] 3.4 Strategy - Pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment. With expected intense commodity sentiment this week, it is recommended to observe cautiously [2]
纸浆数据日报-20250523
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 05:45
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current macro - level positive factors have not yet been reflected in the demand for finished paper, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 22, 2025, SP2601 was 5312, down 0.45% day - on - day and 0.08% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5426, up 0.11% day - on - day and 0.74% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5316, down 0.41% day - on - day and 0.04% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6250, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.79% week - on - week; Knit Coniferous was 5450, unchanged; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4200, unchanged and down 1.18% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, down 3.90% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, down 11.11% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, down 4.62% month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 6046, down 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, down 11.00% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, down 4.57% month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month compared to March; broad - leaf pulp import volume was 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month compared to March [1]. - **Domestic Output**: On May 22, 2025, broad - leaf pulp domestic output was 20 tons; chemical mechanical pulp was 20 tons [1]. - **Shipment Volume to China**: In March 2025, the pulp shipment volume to China was 1813, up 20.70% compared to February [1]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: On May 22, 2025, pulp port inventory was 215.7 tons, down 4.1 tons from the previous period, a 1.9% decline [1]. - **Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On May 22, 2025, it was 26.10 tons [1]. Demand - **Finished Paper Output**: On May 22, 2025, double - offset paper output was 20.03 tons; coated paper was 7.60 tons; tissue paper was 27.60 tons; white cardboard was 28.30 tons [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On May 22, 2025, Russian coniferous basis was 24, with a quantile level of 0.761; Silver Star basis was 824, with a quantile level of 0.968 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On May 22, 2025, coniferous pulp Silver Star import profit was 204, with a quantile level of 0.84; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 387, with a quantile level of 0.236 [1]. Summary of Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco company announced May 2025 wood pulp outer - disk prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star at 740 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; broad - leaf pulp Star had no supply in May and June, with partial supply expected to resume in July; natural pulp Venus at 620 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton [1]. - **Demand**: Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price - increase letters, and the implementation is to be determined; finished paper output remained stable [1]. - **Inventory**: As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 215.7 tons, showing a de - stocking trend [1].