展望未来，中信建投分析，铜价在历史高位后进入技术性修正阶段，短期受获利回吐与弱现实压制，但 结构性需求仍为铜价提供较强支撑。 铜矿企业相关港股：洛阳钼业（03993）、紫金矿业（02899）、江西铜业股份(00358)、五矿资源 (01208) 金浔资源(03636)：金浔资源是是优质阴极铜的领先制造商，在刚果(金)及赞比亚拥有强大的影响力。根 据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，截至2024年12月31日，按在刚果(金)及赞比亚的产量计，公司在中国阴极铜 生产商中排名第五，并为两个司法管辖区中唯一排名前五大的中国公司。 中国有色矿业（01258）：企业公告谦比希东南矿体主、副井于2025年12月完成修复工作，修复效果符 合预期，该矿山已于2026年1月1日正式复产。公司预计2026年综合铜产量约48.4万吨，其中阴极铜约 13.4万吨，粗铜╱阳极铜约35万吨。受谦比希铜冶炼和卢阿拉巴铜冶炼按计划停产检修影响，粗铜╱阳 极铜产量将有所下降。全年预计自有矿产产铜约15.5万吨；生产硫酸约90万吨；生产液态二氧化硫约10 万吨；生产氢氧化钴含钴约600吨。 在铜价从2025年11月底不足11,000美元/吨一路拉升、并于1月 ...

人民财讯1月11日电，中信建投（601066）研报称，近期铜铝代表的有色，年底走势非常强劲，定价关 键战略资源安全以及美国超预期货币宽松。有色行情本质是定价全球新旧秩序更替，所以铜必将接力金 银，铜的行情仍未结束。13000美元并非本轮铜价终点，看好2026年铜价赔率。 ...

1月11日，中信建投周君芝、田雨侬发表研报认为，近期铜铝代表的有色，年底走势非常强劲，定价关 键战略资源安全以及美国超预期货币宽松。中信建投认为，有色行情本质是定价全球新旧秩序更替，所 以铜必将接力金银，铜的行情仍未结束，13000美元并非本轮铜价终点，看好2026年铜价赔率。展望未 来，中信建投分析，铜价在历史高位后进入技术性修正阶段，短期受获利回吐与弱现实压制，但结构性 需求仍为铜价提供较强支撑。 ...

Group 1 - Jiaxin International Resources Investment Co., Ltd. officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Astana International Exchange (AIX) on August 28, with a pre-green shoe issuance scale of $153 million and a post-green shoe scale of $176 million assuming full exercise of the green shoe option [1] - This project marks the first simultaneous listing on both the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Astana International Exchange, and it is the first RMB-denominated stock in Central Asia, as well as the first listing in Hong Kong focused on tungsten mining [1] - The successful listing of Jiaxin International Resources is significant for China's global layout in strategic resources, ensuring the security of national industrial and supply chains, and supporting high-quality development of advanced industries, setting a new benchmark for multinational financial cooperation and capacity collaboration under the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Group 2 - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) served as the sole sponsor for the project, leveraging its cross-border business capabilities to lead project execution and market promotion, while understanding the listing rules of both regions and proposing comprehensive solutions [2] - CICC aims to serve national strategies, ensure resource security, and support the development of the real economy, acting as a bridge connecting China and Central Asia markets for efficient cross-border resource integration [2] - This project further strengthens CICC's leading position in the international investment banking sector and exemplifies its commitment to high-quality Belt and Road Initiative projects, with plans to continue supporting the real economy and cross-border capital flows [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the potassium fertilizer market, highlighting the price agreements for 2025 contracts and the implications for supply and demand dynamics in the context of global geopolitical uncertainties [2][3][4]. Group 1: Potassium Fertilizer Contracts - In June 2025, a major potassium fertilizer import contract was established between the Russian Potash Company (BPC) and Indian importer IPL at a price of $349 per ton, marking a $70 per ton increase (25%) from the previous year [2]. - On June 12, 2025, China's potassium fertilizer import negotiation team reached an agreement with a Dubai-based supplier for a contract price of $346 per ton CFR, translating to approximately 2830 RMB per ton based on the exchange rate at that time [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Uncertainties - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contribute to uncertainties in the global potassium chloride supply chain, prompting China to enhance its focus on the security of strategic resources like potassium [3]. - The potential for further sanctions from Western countries against major potassium producers such as Russia and Belarus adds to the supply chain risks [3]. Group 3: Future Demand Projections - Global demand for potassium chloride is projected to exceed 80 million tons by 2030, driven by population growth and increasing food quality expectations, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.3%-3.2% from 2023 to 2030 [4]. - China is expected to be the largest market for potassium chloride, with demand estimated at 17.5-18.5 million tons in 2024, while other Asian regions are anticipated to see significant growth in demand, increasing by 37.4%-48.4% compared to 2020 levels [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the potassium fertilizer industry, highlighting the importance of securing supply chains and agricultural stability [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The price for potassium fertilizer contracts in China for 2025 has been set at $346 per ton CFR, which is a crucial development for ensuring supply for the upcoming agricultural seasons [1]. - Global potassium chloride demand is projected to exceed 80 million tons by 2030, driven by population growth and increased food quality demands, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.3%-3.2% from 2023 to 2030 [3]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continues to create uncertainties in the global potassium supply chain, prompting China to focus more on the security of strategic resources like potassium [2]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer Contracts - In June 2025, a significant potassium fertilizer import contract was finalized between Chinese companies and a Dubai-based supplier, establishing a price of $346 per ton, which is essential for maintaining supply stability [1]. Global Demand Forecast - By 2030, global potassium chloride demand is expected to rise by 12-17 million tons compared to 2023 levels, with China being the largest market, anticipated to require 17.5-18.5 million tons in 2024 [3]. Strategic Resource Security - The report emphasizes the need for China to enhance its focus on the security of strategic resources like potassium due to ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [2].

Core Insights - The importance of strategic metals has been further highlighted, with the Chinese government implementing export controls on key strategic minerals to safeguard national security and development interests [2][5][9] - Recent export control measures have led to significant price increases for certain strategic metals, indicating a tightening supply chain and heightened market volatility [4][6][7] Group 1: Export Control Measures - The Chinese government has organized multiple meetings to strengthen the export control of strategic minerals, including gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, and rare earth elements [2][5] - The export control measures are seen as a response to external pressures, particularly from the U.S., and aim to prevent the outflow of strategic resources while promoting compliance in trade [5][9] Group 2: Price Dynamics - Following the implementation of export controls, prices for certain strategic metals have surged, with European prices for dysprosium and terbium increasing by approximately three times since April [6][7] - The price disparity between domestic and international markets has reached historical peaks, with antimony price differences reaching 180,000 yuan per ton [6][7] Group 3: Market Implications - Analysts predict that the current high prices for strategic metals may not be sustainable in the long term, but a significant price increase of 20% to 50% could occur in the short term due to supply chain pressures [8] - The strategic metal sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment, with long-term price trends indicating a potential annual increase of 20% from 2025 to 2030 [8][9]