Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanjing Bank [2] Core Views - Nanjing Bank's revenue continues to show a "U-shaped" improvement, with significant shareholder buybacks indicating recognition of the bank's value [5][12] - The bank's net interest income has accelerated, contributing to revenue growth, while non-interest income has declined due to rising bond market rates [7][12] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan ratio and an increase in the provision coverage ratio [5][12] Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, Nanjing Bank achieved a revenue of 419 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year [5][12] - The bank's net interest income grew by 28.5% year-on-year, significantly contributing to revenue growth [7][12] - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 0.83%, with a provision coverage ratio of 313% [5][12] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 54,368.34 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.15% [6] - Estimated net profit for 2025 is 21,811.77 million yuan, reflecting an 8.10% year-on-year increase [6] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 12.13% in 2025 [6] Shareholder Activity - Major shareholders have actively increased their holdings, with nearly 12 billion yuan in buybacks in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong confidence in the bank's long-term value [7][12] Loan Growth and Business Segments - Total loans increased by 14% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing over 15% [7][12] - Retail loans also showed steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 11% [7][12] Cost and Efficiency - The cost-to-income ratio has improved, contributing positively to profit growth [7][12] - The bank's net interest margin is estimated to have widened by 11 basis points to 1.44% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The key variable affecting bank revenue growth in the first half of 2025 is the decline in liability costs, which has become the main driving force, while the growth of interest-earning assets is slowing down and non-interest assets are showing differentiation [1]. Group 1: Revenue Growth Factors - The growth of interest-earning asset scale remains a crucial support for revenue growth, with large banks weakening and medium and small banks strengthening [1]. - The decline in interest-bearing liability costs has emerged as a new driving force for bank revenue growth, with a significant reduction from 0.02-0.09 percentage points in the first half of 2024 to 0.3-0.4 percentage points in the first half of 2025 [2]. - Non-interest assets have provided significant support for revenue growth among state-owned large banks [1]. Group 2: Interest-Earning Asset Performance - The growth of non-loan assets, particularly in medium and small banks, has driven the overall growth of interest-earning asset scale, while large banks have seen declines in both loan and non-loan interest-earning asset growth [2]. - The decline in interest-earning asset yields has not been alleviated, with a further increase in the year-on-year decline compared to the same period in 2024, particularly among state-owned large banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks [2]. Group 3: Non-Interest Income and Investment Revenue - The total proportion of non-interest income continues to rise, with investment income accounting for an increasing share of operating income in the first half of 2025, averaging 7.7% for state-owned large banks and around 18% for joint-stock and city commercial banks, reflecting a 2-3 percentage point increase from 2024 [3]. - The consumption of floating profits in OCI accounts has accelerated, with significant declines in fair value changes across all types of banks compared to 2024 [3]. Group 4: Asset Quality and Provisioning - The overall non-performing loan ratio for tail-end rural commercial banks continues to rise, while the non-performing loan ratios for medium and large banks are steadily declining [4]. - The provisioning efforts among various banks show differentiation, with a general decline in provisioning rates, indicating adjustments in provisioning pace under operational pressure [4]. - The capital adequacy ratios have shown seasonal declines for most banks except for state-owned large banks, which have benefited from capital replenishment policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - China Bank reported a slight year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, driven primarily by non-interest income, despite a decline in net interest income and net profit [1][2][3]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, China Bank achieved revenue of 164.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56% [1][2]. - Net interest income was 107.7 billion yuan, down 4.42% year-on-year, accounting for 65.32% of total revenue [2]. - Non-interest income reached 57.2 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 18.91%, becoming the main driver for revenue improvement [2][3]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders was 54.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.90% [1][2]. Asset and Liability Management - As of Q1 2025, the total interest-earning assets amounted to 34.92 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [3]. - The loan and financial investment segments were key growth drivers, with year-on-year increases of 8.3% and 20.0%, respectively [3]. - The total interest-bearing liabilities stood at 31.59 trillion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year, with deposits growing by 6.2% [4]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.25%, unchanged from 2024 [5]. - The provision coverage ratio was 198%, a decrease of 2.63 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [6]. Shareholder Structure - Changes in the top ten shareholders included a slight increase in the stake of the second-largest shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, and minor decreases for others [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The bank is expected to see marginal improvements in revenue and profit for 2024, with projected year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.03%, 2.37%, and 3.41% for 2025-2027 [7].