Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current "shortening receipt and lengthening issuance" by the central bank does not necessarily mean an increase in liability costs. The central bank's "shortening receipt and lengthening issuance" in terms of quantity is more significant, and the large - scale long - end issuance is more effective in alleviating the liability pressure of financial institutions, especially banks [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - In December 2025, the central bank conducted a 3 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion yuan at the same volume. From December 1st - 5th, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 84.8 billion yuan, and from December 8th - 12th, 66.38 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature. In November, the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds was 5 billion yuan [6]. - From December 1st - 5th, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.30% and 1.36% respectively, down 1.2 basis points and 2.3 basis points compared with November 24th - 28th. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.44% and 1.49% respectively, down 1.9 basis points and 3.9 basis points compared with November 24th - 28th [6]. - From December 1st - 7th, the net government bond payment was about 18.66 billion yuan, about 14.23 billion yuan less than November 24th - 30th. From December 8th - 14th, the net government bond payment is expected to be - 79.52 billion yuan [7]. 2. Negotiable Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of December 5th, 2025, the maturity yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.5793% and 1.6150% respectively, up 13.4 basis points and 4.0 basis points compared with November 28th. The 1 - year NCD maturity yield was 1.6550%, up 1.5 basis points compared with November 28th [8]. - From December 1st - 7th, the net financing of NCDs was about 4.71 billion yuan. From December 8th - 14th, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 106.24 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the pressure of maturity renewal [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - From December 1st - 5th, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.56%, up from 107.32% in November 24th - 28th [9]. - On December 5th, 2025, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 4.47 years, a weekly increase of 0.79 years, at the 84.1% quantile since early 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 1.80 years, a weekly increase of 0.24 years, at the 51.2% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The six major state-owned banks have collectively discontinued the 5-year large denomination certificates of deposit (CDs), reflecting a broader trend of adjustments in long-term deposit products among banks to reduce liability costs and stabilize net interest margins [1][3][8]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Adjustments - The discontinuation of 5-year large denomination CDs by major banks has drawn significant attention, as many smaller banks have also been adjusting their long-term deposit products [3][8]. - Some state-owned banks had already stopped offering 5-year CDs prior to this collective action, indicating a shift in the market [5][8]. - The adjustments in deposit products are primarily aimed at lowering high-cost liabilities and optimizing the banks' liability structures [9][10]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - Recent data shows that the net interest margin for commercial banks remains under pressure, with state-owned banks having the lowest net interest margin at 1.31% compared to 3.83% for private banks [8][10]. - The trend of lowering deposit rates is expected to continue, with banks likely to maintain a limited number of 5-year products at reduced rates [10][11]. - The adjustments reflect a significant transformation in the financial system under a low-interest-rate environment, with banks responding to declining asset yields by shortening deposit terms [9][10]. Group 3: Investor Guidance - Investors are advised to shift from a single deposit mindset to a diversified investment strategy, considering options like money market funds, cash management products, and government bonds to balance risk and return [11]. - The expectation of continued declines in deposit rates suggests that investors should lower their return expectations and adjust their investment strategies accordingly [11].

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,433 billion, an increase of $47 billion from the end of September, representing a growth rate of 0.14% [1] Group 2: Gold Reserves - By the end of October, China's gold reserves reached 7.409 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - The steady increase in gold reserves indicates the central bank's strategic positioning of gold as a reserve asset, enhancing long-term support for gold prices [2] Group 3: Banking Sector Adjustments - A bank in Inner Mongolia has announced the cancellation of its five-year fixed deposit product, reflecting a broader industry trend to lower deposit rates and reduce funding costs [3] - The bank continues to offer shorter-term deposit products with rates ranging from 1.10% to 1.85% for three months to three years [3] Group 4: Gold Tax Regulations - Following the implementation of new gold tax regulations, banks have reported stable prices and sufficient supply of investment gold bars, indicating minimal impact from the new rules [4] - The regulations distinguish between investment and non-investment gold, with investment gold bars purchased from banks remaining largely unaffected [4] Group 5: New Bank Establishment - The establishment of Xinjiang Rural Commercial Bank has been approved, marking a significant step in the unified legal person reform of rural financial institutions in Xinjiang [5] - This will be the sixth provincial-level unified legal person rural commercial bank in the country and the first in the northwest region [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company has shown an upward trend in performance with a revenue decline of only 0.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.5% [2][6]. - Wealth management income has accelerated, growing by 18.8% year-on-year, which has positively impacted the growth of non-interest income [2][6]. - Asset quality has improved, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.94% at the end of Q3, and a provision coverage ratio of 406% [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for the first three quarters decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a Q3 single-quarter revenue growth of 2.1% [6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.5%, with a Q3 single-quarter growth of 1.0% [6]. - Net interest income grew by 1.7% year-on-year, maintaining positive growth [2][6]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio at the end of Q3 was 0.94%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the beginning of the year [6]. - The provision coverage ratio was 406%, reflecting a strong buffer against potential losses [6]. - The new NPL generation rate for the core bank improved to 0.96%, nearing levels seen in 2021 [2][6]. Wealth Management and Non-Interest Income - Wealth management income surged by 18.8% year-on-year, contributing to a positive turnaround in non-interest income growth [2][6]. - The net fee income grew by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the end of a 13-quarter decline [2][6]. Cost of Liabilities - The net interest margin for the first three quarters was 1.87%, with a Q3 single-quarter margin of 1.83%, showing a narrowing decline [2][6]. - Deposit costs decreased significantly by 10 basis points to 1.13% in Q3 [2][6]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Total assets grew by 4.0% from the beginning of the year, with loans increasing by 3.6% [2][6]. - Retail loans grew by 1.4%, with specific segments like housing loans and consumer loans showing positive growth [2][6]. Investment Recommendations - The company is viewed as a strong candidate for investment due to its robust growth potential, improved asset quality, and strong wealth management capabilities [2][6]. - Current valuations indicate a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.95x for A-shares and 1.02x for H-shares, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 7.2x for A-shares and 7.8x for H-shares [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The key variable affecting bank revenue growth in the first half of 2025 is the decline in liability costs, which has become the main driving force, while the growth of interest-earning assets is slowing down and non-interest assets are showing differentiation [1]. Group 1: Revenue Growth Factors - The growth of interest-earning asset scale remains a crucial support for revenue growth, with large banks weakening and medium and small banks strengthening [1]. - The decline in interest-bearing liability costs has emerged as a new driving force for bank revenue growth, with a significant reduction from 0.02-0.09 percentage points in the first half of 2024 to 0.3-0.4 percentage points in the first half of 2025 [2]. - Non-interest assets have provided significant support for revenue growth among state-owned large banks [1]. Group 2: Interest-Earning Asset Performance - The growth of non-loan assets, particularly in medium and small banks, has driven the overall growth of interest-earning asset scale, while large banks have seen declines in both loan and non-loan interest-earning asset growth [2]. - The decline in interest-earning asset yields has not been alleviated, with a further increase in the year-on-year decline compared to the same period in 2024, particularly among state-owned large banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks [2]. Group 3: Non-Interest Income and Investment Revenue - The total proportion of non-interest income continues to rise, with investment income accounting for an increasing share of operating income in the first half of 2025, averaging 7.7% for state-owned large banks and around 18% for joint-stock and city commercial banks, reflecting a 2-3 percentage point increase from 2024 [3]. - The consumption of floating profits in OCI accounts has accelerated, with significant declines in fair value changes across all types of banks compared to 2024 [3]. Group 4: Asset Quality and Provisioning - The overall non-performing loan ratio for tail-end rural commercial banks continues to rise, while the non-performing loan ratios for medium and large banks are steadily declining [4]. - The provisioning efforts among various banks show differentiation, with a general decline in provisioning rates, indicating adjustments in provisioning pace under operational pressure [4]. - The capital adequacy ratios have shown seasonal declines for most banks except for state-owned large banks, which have benefited from capital replenishment policies [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Postal Savings Bank (601658.SH) is rated as "Buy" due to its optimized capital structure, strong non-interest income performance, and good asset quality [1][1][1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the optimization of the capital structure opens new space for capital replenishment [1] - It notes that the performance of non-interest income effectively offsets the pressure from interest margin [1] - The asset quality is described as excellent, with sufficient risk compensation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on net interest margins faced by major state-owned banks in China, highlighting the performance of Agricultural Bank of China and its strategies to mitigate this pressure [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Agricultural Bank of China reported a net interest margin of 1.32% and a net profit margin of 1.20% for the first half of the year, with year-on-year declines of 13 basis points and 10 basis points, respectively, indicating a narrowing decline compared to previous periods [2]. - The bank's operating income for the first half of the year was 369.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.72%, while net profit reached 139.9 billion yuan, growing by 2.53% year-on-year [3]. - As of the end of the reporting period, the bank's total assets amounted to 46.9 trillion yuan, maintaining its position as the second-largest among major banks [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Net Interest Margin - The decline in net interest margin is attributed to the bank's support for the real economy and the reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which has led to a decrease in the yield on interest-earning assets [2]. - The bank's management indicated that the narrowing decline in net interest margin is due to the growth and optimization of interest-earning asset structure, which has helped maintain competitive loan rates [3]. - The bank expects to stabilize its net interest margin in the second half of the year, driven by continued cost reduction on liabilities and the market-driven adjustment of deposit rates [3]. Group 3: Loan and Deposit Growth - Agricultural Bank of China reported a total loan balance of 26.73 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.3%, including personal loans of 9.31 trillion yuan and corporate loans of 15.44 trillion yuan [4]. - The bank's ability to manage customer segmentation has improved, leading to a greater accumulation of low-cost funds, which has contributed to a decrease in overall funding costs [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077) with a target price of 7.8 CNY / 7.02 HKD [2]. Core Views - The bank has demonstrated significant effectiveness in managing liability costs, resulting in stable asset quality. The bank's net profit for the first half of 2025 increased by 4.63% year-on-year, supported by a reduction in credit impairment losses [2][5]. - The bank's total assets reached 1.63 trillion CNY, growing by 7.60% year-to-date, with total loans increasing by 7.14% and total deposits by 8.84% [5]. - The bank's non-interest income has declined by 16.56% due to market interest rate fluctuations and business expansion strategies [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In the first half of 2025, the bank achieved operating revenue of 147.41 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.46% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 76.99 billion CNY, up 4.63% [2]. - **Asset Quality**: The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.17%, down 1 basis point from the beginning of the year, with a provision coverage ratio of 355.58%, down 7.86 percentage points [2][5]. - **Loan Growth**: Corporate loans were the main growth driver, with a balance of 4.16 trillion CNY, a significant increase of 16.25% year-to-date [5]. Key Financial Indicators - **Net Interest Margin**: The net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 1.60%, showing a slight decrease of 3 basis points year-on-year [5]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The projected revenue growth rates for 2025E-2027E are 1.5%, 4.5%, and 5.8%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 4.6%, 4.8%, and 5.3% [5][6]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The current stock price corresponds to a 2025E price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.55X, with a target PB of 0.68X, indicating growth potential based on regional advantages and business characteristics [5].

Core Insights - The banking and insurance sectors in China are experiencing growth in total assets, with banking assets reaching 467.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and insurance assets at 39.2 trillion yuan, growing by 9.2% since the beginning of the year [1][2] Banking Sector Summary - The banking industry is maintaining a stable operation with key indicators such as non-performing loan ratio, provision coverage ratio, and capital adequacy ratio showing overall stability and improvement [1] - The balance of inclusive loans for small and micro enterprises reached 36 trillion yuan, up 12.3% year-on-year, while inclusive agricultural loans increased to 13.9 trillion yuan, with an additional 1.1 trillion yuan since the end of last year [1] - Banks are optimizing pricing capabilities and reducing overall liability costs, leading to a decrease in the cost-to-income ratio to 30.2%, down 5.3 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The net interest margin for commercial banks was stable at 1.42%, with a slight decline of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter [1] Insurance Sector Summary - The insurance sector's total assets reached 39.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.3 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, reflecting a growth of 9.2% [2] - The original insurance premium income for insurance companies was 3.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, while claims and benefits paid out amounted to 1.3 trillion yuan, up 9% [2] - The insurance industry's comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio stood at 204.5%, with core solvency adequacy ratio at 147.8% as of the end of the second quarter [2] - Specific solvency ratios for property insurance, life insurance, and reinsurance companies were 240.6%, 196.6%, and 250.5% respectively for comprehensive solvency, and 211.2%, 134.3%, and 219.6% for core solvency [2]

Summary of Xinhua Insurance Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xinhua Insurance - **Date**: July 8, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Context - The insurance industry is currently facing challenges due to a low interest rate environment, impacting both asset and liability management strategies [2][3][4]. Financial Strategies - Xinhua Insurance has extended the duration of its asset portfolio by investing in long-term bonds (30-year and 50-year) and increasing investments in other debt instruments measured at fair value, aiming to mitigate the pressure on net assets caused by low interest rates [2][3]. - The company’s asset duration is approximately 10 years, while the liability duration is around 14 years, indicating a strategy to reduce the duration gap [3]. Product and Business Focus - The company’s existing business primarily consists of products with a 3.5% guaranteed interest rate, while new traditional insurance products have a reduced guaranteed rate of about 2.5% [2][4]. - Xinhua Insurance is focusing on dividend insurance products, setting a target for positive growth and aiming for a 30% increase in new premium income [2][8]. Financial Reporting and Accounting Changes - The implementation of new accounting standards has increased the volatility of profit reporting, with "Insurance Contract Financial Variance" becoming a key performance indicator [5][6]. - The company is adapting its asset allocation and accounting practices to stabilize financial reporting amidst market fluctuations [6]. Future Projections - The overall liability cost is expected to decrease over the next three to five years, particularly for traditional insurance products [4]. - The company plans to increase its equity asset allocation to about 20% in 2024, focusing on internal structural adjustments and high-dividend strategies [13][14]. Distribution Channels - The bancassurance channel has become a significant contributor, accounting for nearly 30-40% of the company’s value, with ongoing efforts to enhance its competitive edge [18][19]. - The company is actively implementing the "reporting and banking integration" policy to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of its distribution channels [15][16]. Challenges and Opportunities - The transition to dividend insurance products is seen as a strategic necessity, with plans to diversify the product portfolio and reduce reliance on single products [9][10]. - The company is exploring health insurance products for non-standard body types, indicating a commitment to expanding its customer base and fulfilling social responsibilities [20]. Dividend Policy - Xinhua Insurance has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of approximately 30% of net profit, with plans to continue this practice while adapting to market conditions and financial performance [20]. Additional Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing the value of its new business through improved agent training and product offerings, aiming to achieve significant growth in new business value [17]. - The competitive landscape in the bancassurance sector is intensifying, necessitating tailored product strategies to meet diverse customer needs [19].