根据产业报告，预期腾讯音乐将按计划达成第三季度总营收及非国际财务报告准则盈利预测。按业务板 块划分，维持在线音乐服务与社交娱乐收入预测。音乐订阅业务方面，同时维持第三季净增约130万用 户的预测。另外，预测今年第三季度，腾讯音乐总收入同比增长17%，至82亿元人民币，季度用户 ARPU为11.9元人民币，毛利约35.9亿元人民币，毛利率可达43.8%，主要受惠其他收入更快增长，初步 预测其他收入为22亿元人民币，同比增长35%。 富瑞发布研报称，腾讯音乐-SW(01698)行业最新产业（300832）趋势分析再次印证业务动向，基于每月 iOS收入数据分析各子产业趋势。该行认为，优质增长与SVIP服务是关键，重点领域包括SVIP功能升 级、粉丝经济潜力及线下演唱会发展，对腾讯音乐维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music (NYSE: TME) continues to show a trend of fundamental divergence, with strong growth in online music services offset by weakness in social entertainment, leading to a cautious outlook on the stock [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Music subscription revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to RMB 4.03 billion, driven by a 13% growth in paid user numbers and gradual ARPU improvement [2] - Social entertainment revenue declined by 13% year-on-year to RMB 1.6 billion due to adjustments in live interaction features and stricter compliance procedures [2] - Projected revenue for 2026 is expected to reach RMB 29.33 billion, with a target multiple of 5.0x, resulting in an implied value of approximately USD 13 per share, reflecting a 10% downside from current levels [5][6] Group 2: User Engagement and Content Strategy - Tencent Music is enhancing platform stickiness to support future ARPU growth, expanding its content library through partnerships with SM Entertainment and Kakao Entertainment [3] - The company is investing in application optimization and AI-driven recommendations, resulting in a 10% increase in user playlists and improved sound quality [3] - SVIP membership numbers are steadily increasing, with enhanced features like high-definition online concerts and an expanded digital library attracting more users [3][4] Group 3: Market Outlook and Valuation - Given the structural decline in social entertainment, Tencent Music's valuation should be based solely on its music subscription and advertising business [4] - Future growth expectations include an 11% CAGR in paid users and a 5% CAGR in ARPU over the next two years, with advertising revenue expected to grow at a 15% CAGR [4][6] - The company is also exploring partnerships for in-car music services, which could drive user growth as the automotive market shifts towards high-tech electric vehicles [4]