致敬所有为消除宫颈癌而努力的人。 文 ｜ 于精京 编辑 ｜ 方婷 封面来源 ｜ Unsplash "天价"HPV疫苗时代 当"HPV疫苗免费"消息一出，很多人的感受是："太好了，终于来了！"以及"怎么才来？" 最直接的原因很简单：价格。 2021年双十一前后，某电商平台HPV九价疫苗套餐的价格显示： 3针疫苗6300元，折合下来一针2100元。 地球上每两分钟就有一名妇女因宫颈癌死亡。 在中国，仅2022年就有15.6万新发宫颈癌病例，近6万人因此失去生命，约占全球总数的20%。 幸运的是，宫颈癌已经是一个且唯一一个能通过疫苗来预防的癌症， 这个疫苗就是我们常说的HPV疫苗。 请观看36氪原创视频 也欢迎关注36氪视频号 即便价格如此昂贵，HPV疫苗套餐还是供不应求。很多时候在网上抢到了疫苗套餐，但到了指定的医院，护士也会告诉你：没苗了。 作为世界卫生组织最建议接种、预防效果最好的9-14岁年龄段女孩， 2022年，中国的首针接种率只有4%，而全球同龄段的平均接种率是61.6%。 这一年， HPV疫苗其实已经面世16年了。 2006年，默沙东的HPV疫苗在美国上市，但要想引进中国，得先拿到我们自己的临床数据。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first domestic nine-valent HPV vaccine "Xinkening®9" by Wantai Biological Pharmacy is a significant development in the healthcare sector, aiming to improve women's health and potentially reverse the company's declining performance [2][3]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Position - Wantai Biological's nine-valent HPV vaccine "Xinkening®9" received approval and was launched, with a price of 499 yuan per dose, approximately 40% lower than the imported counterpart [3]. - The vaccine is designed for women aged 9 to 45, with different dosing schedules based on age, which may enhance its accessibility and uptake [3]. - The vaccine's development took 18 years, indicating a substantial investment in research and development [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The HPV vaccine market in China is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with increasing public awareness and willingness to receive vaccinations [4]. - Several companies, including Watson Bio and Kanglaoshi, are also developing nine-valent HPV vaccines, indicating a growing competitive landscape [6]. - The market has shifted from a previous state of high demand and limited supply to a more competitive environment, with sales of the imported nine-valent vaccine experiencing a significant decline [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Stock Market Reaction - Wantai Biological's financial performance has deteriorated, with a reported revenue drop of 50.75% and a net profit decline of 76.11% in 2023 compared to the previous year [7]. - The company's stock has shown volatility, with a notable drop of 24.55% from June to September 2025, despite some temporary gains following the vaccine announcement [8]. - The cautious response from the capital market reflects uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the company's recovery through the new vaccine [8].

Core Viewpoint - WanTai Bio's stock price has declined due to increased market competition and disappointing sales of its HPV vaccines, leading to significant revenue and profit losses in the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - As of August 27, 2025, WanTai Bio's stock price was 58.89 yuan, down 1.60 yuan or 2.65% from the previous trading day [1] - The company reported a revenue of 844 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 38.25% [1] - WanTai Bio experienced a net loss attributable to shareholders of 144 million yuan, a decline of 155.3% year-on-year [1] Business Overview - WanTai Bio's main business includes the production of biological products, with key products being HPV vaccines and in vitro diagnostic reagents [1] - The company's self-developed domestic bivalent HPV vaccine "Xinkening" previously broke the import vaccine monopoly, but has faced intensified competition recently [1] - The newly approved nine-valent HPV vaccine "Xinkening 9" is facing challenges in market expansion due to price competition from imported brands [1] Market Activity - On August 27, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 91.64 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 3.88 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Core Insights - The HPV vaccine market has shifted from a high-demand phase to a significant downturn, with major companies like Zhifei Biological and Wantai Biological reporting substantial revenue declines and net losses [1][2][3] - The decline in demand is attributed to market saturation, with vaccination rates among eligible women nearing completion, leading to a structural adjustment in the industry [5][9] - The competitive landscape has intensified, with price reductions and increased marketing expenses squeezing profit margins for domestic vaccine manufacturers [2][3] Company Performance - Zhifei Biological reported a 73.06% year-on-year revenue decline to 4.919 billion yuan, with a net loss of 597 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][3] - Wantai Biological, a leader in domestic bivalent vaccines, experienced its first loss since its 2020 IPO, with a revenue drop of 38.25% to 844 million yuan and a net loss of 144 million yuan [1][3] - Watson Biological's bivalent vaccine also faced challenges, with a 33.88% revenue decline and a 62.53% drop in net profit in the first half of 2024 [3] Market Dynamics - The HPV vaccine market is experiencing a "cold winter," driven by demand exhaustion and intensified competition, necessitating strategic adaptations such as expanding indications and internationalization [2][10] - The market is characterized by an imbalance in product structure, with a predominance of bivalent vaccines and a reliance on imported nine-valent vaccines, which limits growth potential for domestic products [5][11] - The introduction of male vaccination indications presents a significant opportunity, as the male HPV vaccine market remains largely untapped, with potential to double the target population [10][12] Future Outlook - Companies are focusing on expanding male vaccination indications and enhancing international market presence as key strategies for overcoming current challenges [10][12] - The global HPV vaccine market is evolving, with domestic companies like Wantai and Watson making strides in international approvals and market entry, particularly in low- and middle-income countries [13][14] - Collaborative efforts among policymakers, companies, and society are essential to promote HPV vaccination, improve accessibility, and enhance public awareness [15][16]

Core Insights - The HPV vaccine market in China has shifted from a "blue ocean" to a "red ocean," with a significant decline in demand leading to financial losses for major companies like Zhifei Biological and Wantai Biological [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Zhifei Biological reported a 73.06% year-on-year revenue decline to 4.919 billion yuan, with a net loss of 597 million yuan [1] - Wantai Biological, a leader in domestic bivalent vaccines, experienced its first loss since its 2020 IPO, with a revenue drop of 38.25% to 844 million yuan and a net loss of 144 million yuan [1][3] - The market has seen a fundamental reversal in supply and demand, with a saturation of the target population for vaccination [2][4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The price of domestic bivalent vaccines has fallen to the range of 200-300 yuan due to increased competition, while imported nine-valent vaccines maintain higher prices but are also offering discounts [2][4] - The sales expense ratio remains high due to fierce competition, further squeezing profit margins [2] Group 3: Growth Challenges - The cumulative vaccination rate for HPV among women aged 9-45 is nearing 20%, indicating that the majority of the target population has already been vaccinated [4] - The imbalance in product structure, with a predominance of bivalent vaccines and a reliance on imported nine-valent vaccines, limits growth potential [4][5] Group 4: Future Opportunities - The male HPV vaccine market is largely untapped, with potential for significant growth as awareness increases [10][12] - Companies are focusing on expanding male indications and international market strategies to overcome current challenges [9][13] - The entry of new competitors and the potential for more HPV vaccines to be approved in the coming years could reshape the market landscape [7][12] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - There is a need for enhanced public education on the importance of HPV vaccination for both genders to drive demand [11][15] - Companies should focus on high-value vaccine development and optimize supply chain management to avoid inventory issues [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The HPV vaccine industry is experiencing a significant shift from a previously high-demand market to a saturated and competitive environment, leading to substantial revenue declines for major companies like Zhifei Biological and Wantai Biological [3][4][6]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The HPV vaccine market has transitioned from a "blue ocean" to a "red ocean," with companies facing unprecedented structural adjustments due to a fundamental reversal in supply and demand dynamics [3][4]. - Major companies reported significant revenue drops, with Zhifei Biological's revenue down 73.06% to 4.919 billion yuan and a net loss of 597 million yuan, while Wantai Biological experienced a 38.25% revenue decline to 844 million yuan, with vaccine revenue plummeting 67.3% [3][6]. - The market's supply-demand reversal is attributed to oversaturation of demand after years of scarcity, leading to increased competition and price reductions for vaccines [4][6]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The current market challenges stem from a combination of demand exhaustion and intensified competition, with the core customer base for HPV vaccines having largely completed vaccinations [7][11]. - The imbalance in product structure, with a predominance of two-valent vaccines and a reliance on imported nine-valent vaccines, limits growth potential for domestic vaccines [7][8]. - High inventory levels among manufacturers like Zhifei and Wantai reflect the mismatch between production capacity and declining market demand [8]. Group 3: Growth Opportunities - The industry is exploring new growth avenues, particularly through expanding male vaccination indications and international market expansion [12][14]. - The male HPV vaccine market remains largely untapped, presenting significant potential for growth, especially as awareness of HPV-related diseases increases among men [13][14]. - Domestic companies are actively pursuing clinical trials for male indications and seeking to penetrate international markets, with some products already gaining approval in multiple countries [14][15]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - To navigate the current market landscape, companies should focus on enhancing core capabilities, accelerating high-value vaccine development, and optimizing supply chain management to avoid inventory issues [17][19]. - There is a need for improved public education and awareness campaigns to shift perceptions about HPV vaccination, particularly among male populations [17][19]. - Collaboration among policymakers, enterprises, and society is essential to expand vaccination coverage and improve accessibility, especially in rural areas [17].

Core Viewpoint - The HPV vaccine industry is experiencing a significant shift from high demand to oversupply, leading to a drastic decline in revenues and profits for major companies in the sector [1][2][5]. Company Performance - Zhifei Biological reported a 73.06% year-on-year decline in revenue to 4.919 billion yuan, with a net loss of 597 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][6]. - Wantai Biological, a leading domestic producer of bivalent vaccines, also faced its first loss since its IPO in 2020, with a revenue drop of 38.25% to 844 million yuan and a net loss of 144 million yuan [1][6]. - Watson Biological's bivalent vaccine saw a 33.88% decline in revenue and a 62.53% drop in net profit in the first half of 2024 [6]. Market Dynamics - The HPV vaccine market is undergoing a structural adjustment due to a fundamental reversal in supply and demand, with oversupply leading to price reductions and increased competition [2][5]. - The price of domestic bivalent vaccines has fallen to the range of 200-300 yuan, while imported nine-valent vaccines have also seen price reductions through subsidies and group purchase discounts [2][7]. - The cumulative vaccination rate for HPV among women aged 9-45 in China is nearing 20%, indicating that the primary target demographic has largely completed vaccinations, with remaining unvaccinated individuals often constrained by economic factors [6][12]. Industry Challenges - The market is characterized by an imbalance in product structure, with a predominance of bivalent vaccines and a lack of domestic nine-valent vaccines, which are in high demand [7][8]. - Domestic vaccine manufacturers are lagging in research and development compared to international competitors, particularly in expanding indications for male vaccinations [8][14]. - The entry of new competitors into the HPV vaccine market is increasing, but the growth rate of vaccination uptake is slowing, with only a 3.2% increase in the vaccination rate for women aged 9-45 in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year [11][12]. Future Opportunities - Expanding male vaccination indications and international market penetration are seen as key strategies for overcoming current market challenges [12][16]. - The potential market for male HPV vaccinations is significant, with an estimated 600 million eligible males in the 9-45 age range, but awareness and acceptance of the vaccine among men remain low [13][14]. - Domestic companies are actively pursuing clinical trials for male indications and exploring international markets, with some vaccines already gaining approval in multiple countries [16][17]. Policy and Strategic Recommendations - There is a need for collaborative efforts among policymakers, companies, and society to promote the healthy development of the HPV vaccine industry [19]. - Recommendations include expanding immunization coverage, integrating HPV vaccines into national health plans, and enhancing public education to improve vaccination rates, particularly among men [19].

Core Viewpoint - The HPV vaccine industry has rapidly transitioned from a blue ocean to a red ocean, facing significant challenges due to oversupply and declining demand, leading to substantial revenue and profit declines for major companies like Zhifei Biological and Wantai Biological [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The HPV vaccine market is experiencing a "winter" characterized by a rational return of demand after previous oversupply, compounded by intensified competition [2]. - Major companies have reported significant revenue declines, with Zhifei Biological's revenue dropping 73.06% to 4.919 billion yuan and a net loss of 597 million yuan, while Wantai Biological reported an 38.25% revenue decline to 844 million yuan and a net loss of 144 million yuan [1][3]. - The market's supply-demand relationship has fundamentally reversed, indicating a structural adjustment within the industry [1]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The cumulative vaccination rate for HPV among women aged 9-45 in China is nearing 20%, suggesting that the primary target demographic has largely completed vaccinations, with remaining unvaccinated individuals often constrained by economic factors [4]. - The current product structure is imbalanced, with a predominance of two-valent vaccines and a reliance on imported nine-valent vaccines, which limits the growth potential of domestic vaccines [4]. - The price competition has intensified, with two-valent vaccines priced between 200-300 yuan, while imported nine-valent vaccines have also seen price reductions through subsidies and group purchase discounts [2][4]. Group 3: Market Challenges - The supply side faces common issues, including high inventory levels due to previous overproduction and a lag in research and development compared to international competitors [5]. - Domestic vaccine companies are behind in clinical progress for male indications, which limits their market opportunities as international competitors advance [5][10]. - The public's awareness and acceptance of male HPV vaccination remain low, creating a barrier to market growth despite the potential for significant demand [10]. Group 4: Future Growth Opportunities - Expanding into the male HPV vaccination market presents a significant opportunity, with the potential to double the target population from approximately 300 million women to over 600 million men [12]. - Companies are also focusing on international expansion, with Wantai Biological's vaccines already approved in 21 countries, highlighting the global market potential [12][13]. - The industry is urged to enhance public education on HPV vaccination, particularly among men, to foster a broader acceptance and understanding of the vaccine's benefits [14].

Core Insights - The HPV vaccine market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, transitioning from a previously high-demand environment to a competitive landscape with declining revenues for leading companies [1][3][6] - Major domestic vaccine manufacturers, such as Zhifei Biological and Wantai Biological, reported substantial revenue declines and net losses in their recent financial statements, indicating a structural adjustment in the industry [1][2][3] - The market's supply-demand dynamics have shifted, with oversupply and increased competition leading to price reductions and squeezed profit margins for domestic vaccine producers [2][4][5] Company Performance - Zhifei Biological's revenue for the first half of 2025 fell by 73.06% to 4.919 billion yuan, with a net loss of 597 million yuan, marking a significant decline from profitability [1][3] - Wantai Biological, a leader in the domestic bivalent HPV vaccine market, reported its first loss since its 2020 IPO, with a revenue drop of 38.25% to 844 million yuan and a net loss of 144 million yuan [1][2] - Watson Biological also faced challenges, with a 33.88% decline in revenue and a 62.53% drop in net profit for the first half of 2024 [3] Market Dynamics - The cumulative vaccination rate for HPV among women aged 9-45 in China is nearing 20%, indicating that the target population has largely completed vaccination, while remaining unvaccinated individuals are often constrained by economic factors [4][6] - The market is characterized by an imbalance in product offerings, with a predominance of bivalent vaccines and a reliance on imported nonavalent vaccines, which limits growth potential for domestic products [4][5] - The competitive landscape has intensified, with new entrants and promotional strategies from established players like Merck, which has introduced male vaccination indications, further complicating the market for domestic producers [8][9] Future Opportunities - There is a significant untapped market for male HPV vaccination, with potential to expand the target demographic from approximately 300 million eligible women to over 600 million eligible men [10][11] - Domestic companies are actively pursuing clinical trials for male indications and international market expansion, with some products already gaining approval in multiple countries [10][11] - The industry is encouraged to enhance public education on HPV vaccination, particularly among male populations, to drive demand and acceptance [10][12] Strategic Recommendations - Companies are advised to focus on high-value vaccine development, optimize production capacity, and improve supply chain efficiency to avoid inventory issues [13] - There is a need for collaborative efforts among policymakers, businesses, and society to enhance vaccine accessibility and integrate HPV vaccination into national immunization programs [13] - Strengthening brand recognition and targeted health education campaigns will be crucial for increasing public willingness to vaccinate, especially among male populations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The research conducted by Professor Xia Ning Shao's team at Xiamen University highlights the long-term protective effects and immune durability of the domestically developed bivalent HPV vaccine "Xinkening" over a ten-year period [1] Group 1: Vaccine Efficacy - The bivalent HPV vaccine "Xinkening," developed in collaboration with Wantai Biological Pharmacy, was approved for market in 2019, making it the first HPV vaccine in China and the fourth globally [1] - Previous studies indicated a 100% protection rate against HPV-16/18 related high-grade precancerous lesions within 5.5 years post-vaccination, and a 97.3% protection rate against related six-month persistent infections [1] - The ten-year study shows an 87.4% protection rate against high-grade precancerous lesions and a 97.0% protection rate against six-month persistent infections [1] Group 2: Immune Response - Nearly all vaccinated individuals still possess neutralizing antibodies against HPV-16/18 ten years post-vaccination, with levels significantly higher than those resulting from natural infection [1] - The research confirms that the "Xinkening" vaccine remains effective for at least ten years, providing strong support for its widespread application [1]