证券研究报告[Table_First] | 行业深度 2026 年锂电行业四大关注点 报告要点 展望 2026 年锂电板块产业，从供需层面有四大关注点： 关注点一：锂电池需求展望。在下游新能源车需求增长的基础上，总体单车带 电量的提升关注商用车等贡献。 关注点二：锂电产业供需紧平衡是否会加剧。2025Q3 的旺季出现了供需紧平 衡的首次测试，2026 年产业供需紧平衡有望加剧。从结构上看，预期旺季下 库存行为成为重点变量。从产业变化上看，电池企业纷纷强化对 2026 年材料 保供，当前对供给侧担忧明显加剧。 从材料迭代层面，建议关注固态电池、高压实铁锂、硅基负极、钠电池等产业 进展。 总的看，展望 2026 年，有望处于新一轮需求周期延续期以及新一轮材料迭代 升级关键期。 [Table_Invest] 电气设备 评级： 看好 日期： 2025.12.25 [Table_Author] 分析师 张鹏 登记编码：S0950523070001 ：18820232934 ：zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn [Table_PicQuote] 行业表现 2025/12/24 -18% -4% 10% 24% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent suspension of export controls by both the U.S. and China regarding lithium battery-related products, highlighting the implications for the lithium battery industry and global supply chains [4][6][8]. Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry in 2025 is characterized by a "high-end shortage and mid-to-low-end surplus" situation, with few companies capable of mass production and export of batteries with energy density ≥300Wh/kg [7]. - The U.S. lithium battery industry heavily relies on Chinese products and materials, with China holding a significant share in the global production capacity of key lithium battery materials [7]. Policy Changes - The U.S. has paused the implementation of its 50% penetration rule for one year, while China has also suspended its related export controls for the same duration, allowing for a potential easing of trade tensions [4][6]. - The Chinese export control measures, which were set to take effect on November 8, 2025, included a "technical-level" review for lithium battery exports, specifically targeting high-end technologies and critical equipment [6]. Market Impact - The policy adjustments provide a buffer for cooperation between the U.S. and Chinese lithium battery industries and offer a time window for global supply chain adjustments [8]. - Since 2025, China's lithium-ion battery exports have been on the rise, with Europe and Southeast Asia emerging as significant markets [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid growth and demand for high-density lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, particularly driven by advancements in fast-charging technology and the limited number of companies capable of producing high-density LFP using the oxalic acid iron preparation method [1][5]. Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, China's lithium battery shipments reached 314 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 55%, with lithium iron phosphate cathode material shipments at 760,000 tons, accounting for 76% of total cathode material shipments and achieving a year-on-year growth of 94% [2]. - High-density LFP products are leading the market in terms of orders and profit margins, primarily used in fast-charging power batteries and large energy storage cells [3][4]. Technological Advancements - The oxalic acid iron preparation method is gaining traction, with only 2-3 companies mastering this technology, which is utilized by CATL in its Shenxing battery [5][6]. - The oxalic acid method allows for a single sintering process, resulting in higher purity and better performance compared to the traditional iron phosphate method, which requires multiple sintering and incurs higher energy costs [6][7]. Company Developments - Pengbo New Materials has initiated a new lithium iron phosphate project in Shanxi, with an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons planned to commence trial production in September 2025 [5]. - The company has developed various high-density LFP products, achieving stable mass production and technological leadership in the field [9][10]. Market Positioning - Pengbo New Materials is positioned strongly in the high-density LFP market, with its products already being used in high-end electric vehicles and commercial energy storage applications [12]. - The company has established production bases in Ningxiang and Yangquan, with a total planned capacity of 100,000 tons per year to meet the growing demand for LFP materials [12]. Upcoming Events - Pengbo New Materials will showcase its products at the CIBF 2025 from May 15-17, 2025, in Shenzhen, highlighting its advancements in LFP and manganese iron lithium materials [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - The global lithium battery industry is experiencing a new wave of capacity expansion since 2025, driven by the increasing demand in the power battery and energy storage markets, with major companies accelerating their investments and production plans [2][3]. Group 1: Capacity Expansion - Major companies like CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, and Samsung SDI are disclosing expansion plans across various regions including China, Southeast Asia, and Europe, targeting diverse applications such as power, energy storage, and electric tools [2]. - CATL has announced a new 40GWh battery capacity in Dongying, Shandong, adhering to "zero-carbon factory" standards and utilizing a high proportion of green electricity [3]. - By the end of 2024, CATL's total capacity is expected to reach 676GWh, with over 200GWh under construction, indicating a strong market growth outlook [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Innovations - The expansion is not limited to battery production; it also includes upstream materials like silicon-based anodes and high-pressure lithium iron phosphate, which are becoming new investment focuses [3][6]. - Ganfeng Lithium is accelerating the industrialization of solid-state batteries, with a new 10GWh project in Nanchang, aiming to become a comprehensive manufacturing base for various battery types [5]. - The demand for cylindrical batteries is rising, with companies investing in new production capacities in Southeast Asia to meet the needs of electric tools and emerging applications [6]. Group 3: Financial and Operational Efficiency - As capacity utilization improves, the depreciation pressure from expansion is alleviating, with CATL's utilization rate reaching 80% in the second half of 2024, a 20 percentage point increase from the first half [4]. - CATL is leveraging technologies like super drawlines to enhance investment returns, aiming for capital expenditure growth to be lower than capacity growth [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Caution - Despite the optimistic demand outlook, there are differing views on the growth of lithium battery demand, with some suggesting that the industry's sales and production have remained around 70%, indicating a need for cautious assessment of the expansion driven by optimistic demand expectations [7].