外资行美债&汇率 2026 展望汇总 Contents | | 一、美债 2 | | --- | --- | | • | 美联储新领导层将如何重塑 2026 年收益率曲线?—巴克莱 2 | | • | 2026 年美国利率展望:张力与转型—汇丰 5 | | • | 2026 年美债展望:感受每一天的路径，你走哪条路?—摩根大通 8 | | • | 2026 年利率展望:全球固定收益市场分析—德意志银行 11 | | • | 固定收益 2026 年展望：更具韧性，利差为王；持续的经济韧性；财政刺 | | | 激，两次降息—美银美林 13 | | • | 2026 年核心美债供需展望:明年核心债券净供给将下降—美银美林 18 | | • | 美国利率周报:2026 年展望--宽松之战—花旗 21 | | | 二、汇率 27 | | • | 高盛 2026 年全球外汇市场展望 27 | | • | 亚洲货币:年末短暂喘息，2026 年恐重陷疲软—巴克莱 32 | | • | 2026 年货币展望：权衡利弊—汇丰 37 | | • | 中国本地市场 2026 年展望：看好人民币汇率，利率持中性态度—摩根大通 | | ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Overview - The Federal Reserve has conducted 5 easing cycles and 5 preventive rate cuts since 1980, with rate reductions ranging from approximately 75 basis points (bp) to 1150 bp[13] - Preventive rate cuts occur when economic growth slows but has not yet entered a recession, while easing cuts are implemented during severe economic downturns[17] - The current easing cycle shares similarities with those in 1995 and 2019, with marginal economic weakening but resilient consumption and services[5] Group 2: Asset Performance During Rate Cuts - U.S. Treasury yields typically decline significantly before the first rate cut, with average declines of 73 bp and 85 bp for easing and preventive cuts, respectively[53] - U.S. equities generally rise during preventive cuts (with an 80% success rate for the Nasdaq and S&P 500) but tend to decline during easing cuts, averaging a drop of 11%-13%[52] - The U.S. dollar usually weakens during both types of rate cuts but tends to rebound after the cycle ends, with an average increase of 2.7% six months post-cut[52] - Gold performs better during preventive cuts, with an 80% success rate, while industrial metals depend more on global demand fundamentals[52]