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【智库研报】控量 改造 油转化——石化“反内卷”进行时
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-08-30 01:45
Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have initiated a nationwide assessment of outdated petrochemical production facilities, focusing on those that have been in operation for over 20 years [2][10] - The assessment aims to establish a comprehensive database and prepare for the upcoming elimination and renovation of outdated facilities, which is part of a broader effort to address supply surplus and enhance industry standards [2][5][10] - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant supply surplus issues, with refining capacity exceeding 1 billion tons per year and utilization rates dropping to around 70% [6][9] Group 2 - The supply-side structural reform has entered its 2.0 phase, building on the initial reforms that began in 2015, which successfully addressed overcapacity in the steel and coal industries [3][5] - The current state of the petrochemical industry reflects a systemic overcapacity, with many products experiencing price declines and widespread losses among companies [5][8] - The government has set a target to reduce crude oil processing capacity to below 1 billion tons by the end of 2025, focusing on eliminating inefficient production capacities [9][11] Group 3 - The assessment of outdated facilities is expected to lead to targeted measures for upgrading or closing down inefficient plants, particularly those with capacities below 300 million tons [11] - The industry is encouraged to adopt new technologies and business models to transition towards greener and more efficient operations, with support from government policies [11][12] - A shift from oil-based products to specialty chemicals is emphasized, aiming for a balanced ratio of crude oil used for refining and chemical production [12][13]