Group 1 - The wholesale reference price for 2025 Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) has dropped to 1770 RMB per bottle, marking a new low since its launch, down 20.27% from the initial price of 2220 RMB per bottle [1] - The price for a case of Feitian Moutai remains stable at 1790 RMB per bottle, also a new low, down over 20% from the original price of 2255 RMB per bottle [1] - The price of Feitian Moutai has reached as low as 1700 RMB, with some stores on Pinduoduo selling it at 3400 RMB for two bottles, equivalent to 1700 RMB per bottle [1] Group 2 - The white liquor industry is preparing for the peak season ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, despite the third quarter typically being a slow consumption period [1] - Moutai has launched several new products this quarter, including a limited edition commemorative liquor for the 70th anniversary of the five-star trademark, priced at 7000 RMB, with a current wholesale price stabilizing at 10,000 RMB [1] - Moutai's cultural and creative products continue to expand, with the "Huang Xiaoxi Dinner" series selling out quickly after its launch [1] Group 3 - The ultra-high-end products above Feitian are also being iterated, with the announcement of upgraded packaging and new anti-counterfeiting measures for Guizhou Moutai (premium) at the Guizhou Wine Expo [2] - The recent launch of Moutai 1935 exclusive version has introduced a new channel model [3] Group 4 - The core product supporting Moutai's performance remains the Moutai liquor, with the kilogram Moutai emerging as a new core product, currently priced above 3300 RMB in wholesale [4]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has reached a new low, with significant declines observed in both wholesale and retail prices, indicating a challenging market environment for the brand [1][3][6]. Price Trends - As of September 14, 2023, the wholesale reference price for 25-year Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) in loose bottles is reported at 1770 RMB, down 10 RMB from the previous day, marking a new low since its launch [1]. - The original box price for the same product remains at 1790 RMB, also a new low, reflecting a decline of over 20% from its initial price of 2255 RMB [1]. - The kilogram Moutai (53 degrees/1L) is priced at 3300 RMB, down 18.92% from its launch price of 3700 RMB earlier this year [3]. Market Dynamics - Despite the general trend of declining prices, the white liquor industry is preparing for the peak consumption season around the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with Moutai launching several new products to stimulate demand [8]. - Moutai has been actively engaging with over 200 distributors across various regions, indicating a strategic effort to strengthen market presence [8]. - Limited edition products, such as the 70th Anniversary Commemorative Moutai, have been well-received, with a stable wholesale price around 10,000 RMB, reflecting strong demand in the collectible and gifting markets [8]. Product Development - Moutai is expanding its product line with creative cultural products, which have seen rapid sales, indicating a successful diversification strategy [8]. - The company is also iterating on its high-end products, with recent upgrades announced for premium offerings, including new packaging and anti-counterfeiting measures [8]. - The kilogram Moutai is emerging as a new core product, with increasing inquiries and purchases noted in the market [9].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.16% and 8.89% respectively, despite a slowdown in profit growth [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, marking a 9.16% increase year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 45.403 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.89% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company has a three-year dividend plan, committing to distribute no less than 75% of the annual net profit as cash dividends from 2024 to 2026 [3]. Dividend Policy - For 2024, the proposed cash dividend is 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 34.671 billion yuan, with an expected cumulative dividend of approximately 64.7 billion yuan for the year, resulting in a dividend rate of 75% and a dividend yield of about 3.33% [3]. - The company is considering maintaining its dividend policy and has already implemented a buyback of 6 billion yuan this year [4]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing market strategies and maintaining channel resilience amid industry adjustments and changing consumer trends [2]. - There has been a noted improvement in terminal sales as of late August, with significant growth compared to June and July, indicating a potential positive market trend [5]. Product Development - Guizhou Moutai has launched several new products this year, including limited editions and creative cultural products, which have been well-received in the market [5]. - The company is committed to enhancing brand building and consumer group cultivation, particularly in series wines and overseas markets [5]. Sales and Marketing - The sales expense ratio remains around 3%, the lowest in the industry, indicating effective cost management despite absolute increases in sales expenses [6]. - The company is adapting its marketing strategies and expanding consumption scenarios to meet the rational consumption trends in the market [6].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to rise, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a price increase of 0.81% as of the latest report [1][2] - Leading stocks in the liquor industry, such as Guizhou Moutai and others, have seen significant gains, with some stocks like JiuGuiJiu rising over 9% [1][3] - The introduction of new products by Moutai, specifically the "Huang Xiao Xi Dinner Series," aims to enhance the brand's presence in popular tourist destinations in Guizhou [1][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the current valuation of the food and beverage sector presents a good investment opportunity, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.06, indicating a favorable long-term positioning [3][4] - Despite recent challenges in the liquor market due to ongoing restrictions, leading companies are expected to maintain strong dividend yields, making them attractive for long-term investment [4][5] - The upcoming festive seasons are anticipated to improve demand for dairy products, potentially stabilizing raw milk prices and reducing excessive promotional competition [5]

Group 1: Industry Trends - Guojingong Liquor and Shede Liquor are set to launch new low-alcohol products below 30 degrees, aiming to capitalize on the current trend of low-alcohol beverages [1][5] - The small bottle trend is resurging, with various liquor companies introducing 100ml products, including Guojingong's new offerings that cater to both low-alcohol and small bottle markets [1][10] Group 2: Sales and Revenue Data - In July, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 43.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, while the total sales for the first seven months amounted to 374 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year [2] - Moutai's total revenue for the first half of the year reached 91.094 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, slightly exceeding its growth target [12] Group 3: Product Launches - Guojingong Liquor launched a new 26-degree product named "Guojingong Liquor·Year Original Light 20," targeting urban elites aged 25-35, with pricing set at 300 yuan for 375ml and 100 yuan for 100ml [5] - Shede Liquor plans to introduce a 29-degree product called "Shede Zizai," utilizing aged liquor from its reserves [7] Group 4: Events and Exhibitions - The 113th National Sugar and Wine Fair is set to take place from October 16 to 18 in Nanjing, with over 3,000 companies confirmed to exhibit, including major liquor brands [3] Group 5: Packaging Innovations - Moutai has introduced a new 500ml four-bottle packaging, which is more suitable for small gatherings, alongside an updated design for its packaging bags, enhancing visual appeal and functionality [8][9]